Farah will not win a Gold in Rio

butt really wrote:

It was just last year that they made the 10k an honest race. Farah proved in the half yesterday that he can't handle a real pace anymore.

59:59 while being stormed on is the inability to handle a real pace?

I think there's something that you fundamentally fail to understand about race distances. A 10000m race is not a Half Marathon. It is less than half the distance. It's absurd if you think that Farah will be unable to handle a 27:00 pace race (like last year) given how he just performed.

Again, Farah gets better as the distances decrease from the Half Marathon to the 10000m and 5000m. In contrast, his competitors in the Half Marathon get worse.

Right. If anyone thinks his performance at the world half marathon championships is less than any of his other half marathons you are wrong. He is at least on par with his Lisbon pr as well as his great north pr. We are talking about 35 seconds here people. 35 seconds in those conditions. Just because he was beat by other half marathoners does not mean a thing. Bekele beat him at the half after he won double gold. If anything this proves he is just as strong as ever and has not lost a step. He ran 3:28 again last year so I doubt he is losing much speed between this year and next. He is still the favorite in the 5 and the 10. Those who think otherwise do not know what they're talking about.

v6 wrote:

I don't know who can beat Farah in the 5k. Kamworor has a shot in the 10k though.

Hard to see Farah losing given how these races go tactically but I do hope he loses to mix it up a bit.

Google a guy named Kejelcha from Ethiopia.

So that's 26:50, 3:28 and 59:59 in less than a 12 month span.

Obviously Farah is on the decline.

Pretty poor times for a 5/10 runner.

I predicted Farah would get 3rd I. This race. Nothing really matters to him except double gold in Rio. He will be doped up and ready to roll. He will win double gold in Rio, kamel can't drop him on the track, even with 2630 pace is not enough.

Haw haw. We'll see. Big talk.

Will Kam and Karoki work together to bust Mo's nuggets? Probably. Tanui is a very good kicker and will work on a medal for: Tanui. Karoki will see his best chance ever of an Olympic medal. How will this affect the race?

No one will drop Rupp either. Will Mo and Rupp figure some strategy out? Who knows.

Throw in the "new guy" factor, what East African runners will come out of the woodwork this year? And Jelian, is he healthy?

As a shameless fan of Mr. Rupp, I say may the strongest men medal. I see Galen on the podium again.

Another factor I find humorous. Let's Run has been vocal in saying the 10,000 is not important. It's shaping up to the a real highlight of the Olympics.

its possible cracks are just starting to appear,but i wouldnt discount mo farah,if i were you.hes not past it just yet,and hes still gonna be the athlete to beat.if hes no longer doping(as some have suggested) then he wont be a factor,or perhaps if he gets injured.

“Geoffrey can’t beat me in a 10k,”he said, laughing. “Well, he can obviously but I’m not going to let him do that. Marathon, half marathon and road races are completely different. The track is mine.

“When I raced at the Prefontaine meeting [in Oregon] last year I had to win and put a marker down. That’s what it was and I think I’m going to do the same thing in 2016 – race at ‘Pre’, then a few races in the UK and then Rio.”

pretty good insights by Mo himself...

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/mar/27/mo-farah-world-half-marathon-rio-olympic-champion

ventolin^3 wrote:

Seyta wrote:Again, Farah gets better as the distances decrease from the Half Marathon to the 10000m and 5000m. In contrast, his competitors in the Half Marathon get worse.

you have no proof for this

do some research

last year, Kamwo ran an unpaced 13'12 in nairobi ( track record of 13'09 ) & in it he slaughtered isiah koech by 11s !!!

that had to be close to a 12'50 sea-level effort, so guys like Kamwo are far from slow over shortest distance

Are you trying to tell me that 58:54 isn't better than 26:52 and 13:12?

Interestingly, Farah believes he'd have a better shot at the 10,000m world record than the 5k.

He has also said he would like to attempt the world records one day, and would not like to finish his career not having given it a go.

But he says that he would only do it in a year with no championships to train for. So seeing as there is the Olympics this year and then WC next year, I don't see any attempts actually being made as I'm sure he will retire or get slower by 2018.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/athletics/mo-farah-targets-world-record-6431473

i bet he runs the fastest time(s) of his career this year.you have no idea what you are talking about. neither do i. he'll win gold

RealTalk wrote:

Farah's decline is starting. His age is finally catching up to him. We saw him lose to Heath (who?) and then get destroyed in the half yesterday. His best days are behind him, and he will not win a gold in either the 5k or the 10k in Rio.

I'm going to make some predictions now and say that Kejelcha takes the 5 and Kamoworor takes the 10.

So who will beat him, especially in the 5k? Who is the favorite?

If Mo won't win, who will? How can such a definitive statement be made without a strong argument for these "better" runners?

Mo might not win a gold, but I find it outrageous to disregard him, especially since there isn't ANYONE who has proven to be better than him.

Mo may or may not have world record ability; he may not technically be the fastest runner ever. But he is one of the greatest champions ever, and one of the best RACERS ever.

from the man himself... wrote:

“Geoffrey can’t beat me in a 10k,”he said, laughing. “Well, he can obviously but I’m not going to let him do that. Marathon, half marathon and road races are completely different. The track is mine.

“When I raced at the Prefontaine meeting [in Oregon] last year I had to win and put a marker down. That’s what it was and I think I’m going to do the same thing in 2016 – race at ‘Pre’, then a few races in the UK and then Rio.”

pretty good insights by Mo himself...

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/mar/27/mo-farah-world-half-marathon-rio-olympic-champion

This is why Farah will never be a GOAT. He has to focus a whole year on one meet. Bekele had no problem running indoor, running outdoors, running the diamond league, running fast times, chasing records, and still winning the Olympics.

ventolin^3 wrote:

Seyta wrote:Are you trying to tell me that 58:54 isn't better than 26:52 and 13:12?

eh ???

what part of nairobi being at 5,000'+ you miss ???

what part of slaughtering koech by 11s you miss ???

what part of likely near 12'50 at sea-level off no pacing you miss ???

that not comparable to 58'54 ???

as for 10k, what part of 27'06 as pup of 18y you miss ???

you think he only improved by 14s from raw kid to last year ???

how about 26'52 coming in jet-lagged, carrying a back injury which said stopped him front-running & he instead left it to the kick you miss ???

you think he's a guy who woud not front-run a 10k by choice ???

what shape you think he was in peking where he front-ran most of race in brutal conditions ???

Please, Ventolin, for once just accept the obvious. Everyone in the entire world knows that Kamworor is primarily a half marathon specialist and is now trying to step down and run track also.

Without any calculations, without speculating about how he might run 12:50 etc, everyone watched him destroy the worlds best 5k/10k runner in Cardiff but knows that probably won't happen in Rio. If Kamworor wins it's by a whisker.

I have never seen him run even a 10k where a large portion of the race was on world record schedule, but he looked comfortable doing that in the half until the weather turned against him. Seen as you like numbers so much, I daresay the runners lost at least 40s in Cardiff in the last portion of the race.

For some reason someone deleted Ventolin's post.

Ventolin

You think 12:45 is nothing pace, you think Mo can run 12:40, or faster, yet Kam can run 12:50 which now, for some reason, isn't slow, and yet is a threat to Mo .. even though you give Mo ten seconds on him, and a MUCH faster kick.

Walk us through this race.

Kamworor goes round at 12:50 pace Mo hot on his heels, Farah looks ready to strike in the last 30m but trips on his face?

If you're willing to move up to 4:13 and 15:37 you can add me, too.

broken arrow wrote:

If the pace is fast from the gun, in the 26:40-27:00 minute range then Kamworor has a good chance to win. But if the pace is 27:30 or slower from the start then Farah will be tough to beat. The difference is 5 seconds per kilometer and that will take the sting out of Farahs kick.

Farah is still the favorite in the 5000m, it is not long enough to take away his kick at any pace.

If the pace is 36:00 from the start I'll be able to hang with the lead pack for awhile.