Official 2017 NYC Marathon Discussion Thread

Women's preview is now up. Who do you think will win the women's race?

Inside info, one of the top women will pull out Thursday morning.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/11/2017-nyc-marathon-womens-preview-mary-keitany-goes-four-straight-edna-kiplagat-shalane-flanagan/

Oh Please wrote:

Jared Ward better be first American. Two of the other three contenders are 40+ years old, and the other hasn't shown any particular skill at the marathon. To PR in the Olympics in warm humid weather is studly. I think he can PR again at NYC.

Ward: 2:10:45

Biwott: 2:11:30

Meb: 2:16:20

Abdi: DNF

Kipsang wins in 2:06:45 with huge negative split.

Just imagine if one of the Americans ran faster than Rupp in Chicago?

rojo wrote:

Women's preview is now up. Who do you think will win the women's race?

Inside info, one of the top women will pull out Thursday morning.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/11/2017-nyc-marathon-womens-preview-mary-keitany-goes-four-straight-edna-kiplagat-shalane-flanagan/

Wait there's a women's race?

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Just imagine if one of the Americans ran faster than Rupp in Chicago?

Zero percent chance of that happening. Jared and/or Shadrack would have to PR by over 2 minutes. Meb and Abdi haven't run sub 2:11 in over 3 years. That said, I could see Jared and Shadrack running slight PRs if the pace is isn't too fast early on (halfway around 65 - 65:30).

If Meb wasn't racing, we'd probably not even get a glimpse of the American men since none will be in the lead group after 10K or likely earlier.

Honestly, I believe Shadrack has a great chance of a low 2:10 race, if not breaking it. Good luck Shadrack!!!!!!!!!

shout out bro wrote:

Jared Ward, cuz shout out to my Utah peeps! Especially Jayordon. He's my favorite.

Ayyyye Shout Out Bro! What's good???? This makes me think that maybe I know you in real life or something XD

Biwott. But then LRC publishes a scathing expose on him saying that he's not American born so we must call Ward the top American.

Get the inside scoop from today's press events.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/11/meb-reveals-hell-miss-nyc-shalane-says-shes-best-buildup-ever-thursday-nyc-marathon-notes/

and

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/11/paul-chelimo-aiming-world-indoor-3k-gold-brenda-martinez-done-800-abbott-dash-finishline-usatf-5k-notes/

Jared Fogle from Subway and Governor Rod Blagojevich will escape the Federal Penitentiary in Englewood, CO this evening where they've reportedly been roommates, and jump on a flight to LaGuardia first thing Friday morning. Their only carryon will be Fogle's running kit and 2 bottles of Grecian formula that they buy at the airport convenience store, on the concourse after the security checkpoint. Jared, who's been posting on this website bragging about how he'll cheat to BQ, will use the Rosie Ruiz method, in honor of his Subway heritage--but miscalculate by an hour. Time zones and daylight savings are tough to keep up with while pining for some underage nookie in the hoosegow. He will sneak out of a portolet on 5th Avenue, just before the course enters Central Park. He will enter the course a few minutes before the lead pack, be quickly passed- but waddle to the finish still wearing his bib from 2010--fooling all course officials. Will be the third American overall--jogging it in with Meb-and crediting his running prowess to 3 years of prison yard laps at altitude. Coach Blagojevich will pull a Seinfeld maneuver and hand Meb a cup of hot tea on Central Park South-and Meb will narrowly avoid scalding himself.

The Chilean miner will serenade the pair with an Elvis tune at the race after party-goodwill will sprout, and a late winter/early spring presidential pardon will be handed to them both--just before the impeachment proceedings move from the House to the Senate.

My prediction:

Men

1. Kipsang 2:06:26

2. Kamworwor 2:07:10

3. Ghebrassalasie 2:08:01

Women

1. Keitany 2:19:56 CR

2. Kiplagat 2:22:25

3. Flanagan 2:23:34

You need to ask Kamworor if this Coach JS is really coaching him.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

You need to ask Kamworor if this Coach JS is really coaching him.

I really hope this is asked.

porterhaus wrote:

I don't think Meb is very fit and he is just using this as his farewell race, which he's earned the right to do.

Meb will do fine; not the top American man but still an excellent time. I see Meb running forever like Joanie.

black cactus ftw wrote:

Hahariiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight wrote:

Everyone constantly overlooking The Black Cactus - not sure how he's not the odds on favorite for top American? Don't be surprised if he's on the podium again after half of the Africans drop out..

Unfortunately, I don't think Meb is in great shape, Jared is going to be too preoccupied with fitting regression models and Shadrack is probably overworked from selling shoes and running 180 mile weeks under Hudson. Abdi all the way, baby!

Did you mean under Hansons? He doesn't live in Michigan, so I don't think he's selling many shoes. He may have some 180 weeks in though.

rojo wrote:

Our international men's preview is out. We've narrowed down the potential winners to 5.

Which of the following 5 men will win NY on Sunday - Wilson Kipsang, Ghirmay Ghebreslassie, Lelisa Desisa, Lemi Berhanu, or Geoffrey Kamworor? Tell us below and vote in our poll.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/11/2017-nyc-marathon-international-mens-preview-ghebreslassie-guns-repeat-kipsang-tries-bounce-back-kamworor-returns-marathon/

PS. I'm turning this into the official thread.

Kipsang wins with Course Record, followed closely by Kamwo. Or Kamwo wins with CR. Word on the street is that Kamwo is in ridiculous shape. He does this thing where he goes to NYC to race well before smashing the World Half, and he trains with the train Kipchoge. You go and ask anyone at Kaptagat if you don't believe me. I saw a snapshot of his pre-NYC month and it's dumfounding to say the least. If that 4:28 a few years ago was a crazy, you may be in for a rude shock (barring bad weather, of course). If weather is nice, it will be either Kipsang or Kamwo, with CR going down. Although I should bet more on Kamwo because he has proven himself in terrible weather and I have seen his workouts of late. I just worry that he has a psychological hurdle with regards to the marathon that Kipsang simply does not have despite Berlin (which I totally believe to have been a psychological one and not physiological - he was scared of a showdown with Kipchoge. Go ask anyone at Keelu in Iten and they will whisper it to you).

The reason I insist CR may go down is that Mutai didn't even know the course when he set the CR and he certainly was not in shape for the current WR. Kipsang definitely is, and Kamwo is arguably close. And these guys know the course pretty well. When Mutai was dropping those 4:30s in NYC he was reserving his strength because he just didn't know what to expect - having run in Boston, he was expecting something big, heartbreak-hill-like, and then a nice downhill. You can ask him yourself if you don't believe me. Kipsang knows the course and he and Kamwo are expected to set a crazy duel in that final 10k.

Well it's not like the weather is going to be terrible, but it won't be great either. Comparable to Berlin. Thus I don't think a CR

is that likely.

snow blow wrote:

The Great Divide wrote:

How is no one calling Abdi as first American? He was third male last year. Did he have a setback or something I have not heard of?

Yes, a setback known as hitting age 40. It tends to hinder performance.

You don't turn into a fat pumpkin the second you turn 40. He came in 3rd last year at 39. Granted that was because a few others didn't perform as expected but Abdi has been incredibly consistent the last few years. I call him as top American.

That CR will stand for a LONG time. Mutai was absolutely in WR shape when he ran that. If he had run Berlin instead of NYC in 2011, he would have destroyed Patrick Makau.