I'm calling 3:57.59. I don't think anyone has ever run 4:02 while playing soccer that year. This kills all other arguments to me. List all the 4:01 and 4:02 guys you can think of and see how of them were running full time during the school year. It pretty its much all of them, except for Grant Fisher. That potential is frightening to contemplate when you really think about it.
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Make your predicitions now, When does Grant Fisher break 4:00 and how close to Webb's 3:53 does he get?
High School Running
Distance
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00
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Logician2 wrote:
It's called a race plan. In his Flotrack post-race interview, Fisher mentions a specific tree at the top of the climb as the point where he planned to make his final drive. If you watch the video, he followed the plan perfectly. As the hill levels off, they make a 90 degree turn, and he leans forward and starts to leave everyone immediately.
He ran 2:05 from that point to the finish. No one matched the move at all, and he knew it because he glanced back before heading down the hill. He surely could have gone faster if someone was pushing him.
In 2011, Ches ran 2:09 from that point to the finish, being pushed to the line by Futsum (2:10).
Given that he followed his prescribed ran plan to perfection, on a course which was obviously at least a little slower than normal given the huge amount of rain from the day before, I'd say the performance was at least on par with 2011's race. And in a close race, I'd take 2014 Grant over 2011 Futsum all day.
blargh wrote:
A. Everyone but Fisher didn't run very fast. You're lauding them as if they ran amazing. Yes it was one of the deepest classes ever, but they did not run all that well.
C. Futsum was superior because he ran 14:53 in a race in which Cheserek sat and kicked. They were just both extremely fit and superior to everyone else.
E. When Cheserek won his senior year in 15 low, he made his separation and started kicking at the hill. Very similar I'd say to this year. But the difference is that 3 guys were able to stay with him. Whereas the guys who tried this year weren't as good as in 2012, so they faded at the end.
McGorty, Leingang & Saarel > this year's field.
F. This would say that Fisher has similar kicking speed to a senior year Cheserek, but seeing as neither of his victories were in 14:52, he doesn't have the endurance.
Fisher SHATTERED the competition.
Logician2 provides time analysis from the point at which Fisher made his move, when compared with past greats, that leads me to believe he is at least on par with them. What no one has mentioned is Fisher's explosive power. Brooks PR and this years FL are examples of such. The gear changes that Fisher has is speed and power at its best. Only Ches showed something similar while in high school but his mechanics were nothing like Fisher's smooth form. When Fisher was 16 and the youngest in the field of athletes at Youth Worlds we saw him kick down sub 3:40 1500 m guys (speed). Winning two FL titles (endurance). NB indoor nationals he ramped up each of his last 200 m in the second half of the race by a second or more (speed endurance) We have had the pleasure to see his speed, endurance, and power at work. The kid, and he still looks very young as he is only 17, has all the right stuff as well. He finds a way to win like no other HS runner that I have ever seen. And win is what this kid does every time he toes the line. That cannot be taught or trained into someone. As well, He is a pleasure to listen to. He interviews like a seasoned pro. Whether he breaks 4 in the mile while in high school or not is fun to debate. What is more fun is to watch him shatter his competition.
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LetsRun.com wrote:
After watching FL today, the question for me now becomes, "When will Grant Fisher break 4:00?"
I don't have any doubt that he does it in HS. That kid is incredible. He just destroyed the field. Over the span of 2.5 minutes, he put what 10 seconds on them.
As I said on the thread, at that point, he wasn't racing the field, he was racing Ritz for history. Well in track, it's time to race Webb for history.
Get him in a college or pro race and let's see how low he can go.
-Rojo
PS. I guess i could see him not doing it if he only goes to adidas NYC and the weather is awful there.
PPS. Yes. I know I love to hype the prodigies but they make the sport exciting for me. I was driving the Ritz bandwagon as the first sub-27 white man (missed out on that) and then raved about Saarel.
Running anything close to Webb's 3:53 is completely out of the question, if this kid does break 4, he will just sneak under it. Webb was a freak of nature and probably more mature physically and mentally than the average H.S. kid and having 1:47 800 speed didn't hurt either. Fisher is definitely special, but I can think quite a few H.S. kids who looked to be a lock for sub-4 and it didn't happen. For it to happen, Fisher is going to need a race, that sets up for a sub-4 attempt and he has to be fully committed to it. With that said, I see a couple of other H.S. kids (Maton/Hunter/Tamagno) who could be in the 4:01/4:02 range and could push Fisher to sub-4 just to win the race. - My prediction is he will run 4 flat in a H.S. only race and perhaps 3:59.5 if he gets into an open race.
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Observation wrote:
Logician2 wrote:
It's called a race plan. In his Flotrack post-race interview, Fisher mentions a specific tree at the top of the climb as the point where he planned to make his final drive. If you watch the video, he followed the plan perfectly. As the hill levels off, they make a 90 degree turn, and he leans forward and starts to leave everyone immediately.
He ran 2:05 from that point to the finish. No one matched the move at all, and he knew it because he glanced back before heading down the hill. He surely could have gone faster if someone was pushing him.
In 2011, Ches ran 2:09 from that point to the finish, being pushed to the line by Futsum (2:10).
Given that he followed his prescribed ran plan to perfection, on a course which was obviously at least a little slower than normal given the huge amount of rain from the day before, I'd say the performance was at least on par with 2011's race. And in a close race, I'd take 2014 Grant over 2011 Futsum all day.
Fisher SHATTERED the competition.
Logician2 provides time analysis from the point at which Fisher made his move, when compared with past greats, that leads me to believe he is at least on par with them. What no one has mentioned is Fisher's explosive power. Brooks PR and this years FL are examples of such. The gear changes that Fisher has is speed and power at its best. Only Ches showed something similar while in high school but his mechanics were nothing like Fisher's smooth form. When Fisher was 16 and the youngest in the field of athletes at Youth Worlds we saw him kick down sub 3:40 1500 m guys (speed). Winning two FL titles (endurance). NB indoor nationals he ramped up each of his last 200 m in the second half of the race by a second or more (speed endurance) We have had the pleasure to see his speed, endurance, and power at work. The kid, and he still looks very young as he is only 17, has all the right stuff as well. He finds a way to win like no other HS runner that I have ever seen. And win is what this kid does every time he toes the line. That cannot be taught or trained into someone. As well, He is a pleasure to listen to. He interviews like a seasoned pro. Whether he breaks 4 in the mile while in high school or not is fun to debate. What is more fun is to watch him shatter his competition.
"...like no other HS runner that I have ever seen."
LOL Poster is 18 years old.
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162430 wrote:
Definetly NOT the NCAA wrote:
I would, like others already have, say that But... Is right on the money.
Not even close. But… makes some solid points, but c'mon. Burnout? For a kid that runs an average of 7 miles a day? That is the most ludicrous thing I have ever read. Also, saying that sub-4 is too hard because Verzbicas only managed 3:59.71 is ridiculous! But… dedicated an entire paragraph to this point, but failed to mention that it was rainy, windy and TERRIBLY paced. The splits were something unfathomably bad like 57 - 2:02. It is absolutely incredible that Verzbicas broke 4 in that race. The effort was probably worth a 3:57 (or better!).
Yep. Weather was shite.
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But... wrote:
Burnout is an issue. Now that Fisher has quit soccer, if he starts to train harder than he ever has before, in a sport that is a second love, he might experience burnout. Not likely, but it's an example of what can go wrong.
I did omit the details of Verzbicas' race, but it still helps my point. He had the ability for something fast, but only barely broke 4 due to the weather and pacing--things can go wrong and add a great deal to runners' times.
I'm more certain Fisher will be an NCAA champ than a sub-4 HS miler. I think both are likely.
162430 wrote:
Not even close. But… makes some solid points, but c'mon. Burnout? For a kid that runs an average of 7 miles a day? That is the most ludicrous thing I have ever read. Also, saying that sub-4 is too hard because Verzbicas only managed 3:59.71 is ridiculous! But… dedicated an entire paragraph to this point, but failed to mention that it was rainy, windy and TERRIBLY paced. The splits were something unfathomably bad like 57 - 2:02. It is absolutely incredible that Verzbicas broke 4 in that race. The effort was probably worth a 3:57 (or better!).
Verzbicas toyed with that race, and then willed himself to still break 4 in those conditions....in the final 600.
It was uber impressive.
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Why does everyone assume quitting soccer is going to help so much? Erin Sullivan won footlocker while playing soccer as a junior and didn't improve that much after she quit.
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Because Grant Fisher, from what I could tell, was a high level soccer player and devoted a lot of time to it. I am not sure if Sullivan played soccer on the level Fisher did, but even if she did male athletic development is totally differrent. With how much time soccer took sucked up for Grant, he can devote that much more to his diet, recovery, and nailing workouts.
The kid runs sub 4 this year...I say 3:58.27. Reason? His excellent coach, the level of prep running right now, and most of all, he has the x factor. The kid does not lose...period. He can win, and runs to win, but sense he is so much better now he isnt just going to run for the win-he'll go for the times.
What's really exciting is the prospects of this kid in the future! Can't wait to see him, the rosas, and McGorty tear it up this fall. I think he'll be there 4 runner immediately. They will beat the buffs. Fisher wins 1500m title as sophomore.
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Where in this solar system do all you batshiiat freaks come from. OMG.
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Bump...After repeating as National Champion in cross country, dominating a field of studs that ran mid-14:00 5Ks and broke historic records during their respective seasons...4:07 solo indoor opener at the end of January.4:06 race with collegians.4:04 solo at indoor state meet.4:03.5 solo...with a trip on final turn...on pace for 4:01.X prior to trip.4:00.6? equivalent from his 3:42.8 at Stanford.4:00.28/4:01.66 at MI state meet in light rain.3:59.38 at Festival of Miles.TBD at Dream Mile.TBD at Brooks PR Invite 2 Mile.The kid is the real deal. Deal with it.
Critical Thinking wrote:
He isn't going to break four in high school. Every year some kid is going to break four and it almost never happens.
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You ready to have that talk now buddy? Haha
asu guy wrote:
here we go wrote:
Did anyone at baby-nats last week prove anything that would lead us to believe they would have an impact on today's race? I guess I could see Anderson leading for a little while after Ostberg heading into the last mile.
German and Rupp had slower PRs than Grant through their junior years. They also lost races. Grant doesn't. Sorry bro.
are you 15 or 16 ?
Those guys were so much faster then Fisher will be as a high school kid. He won't even be as fast as Lucas....Lucas won FL twice also an all timer
Mark this thread Bro and I will come back and you can tell me what is what in the spring.
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Yeah, I'm guessing asu guy (or any of the other morons) will conveniently not see this thread being bumped to the top.
here we go wrote:
You ready to have that talk now buddy? Haha
asu guy wrote:
are you 15 or 16 ?
Those guys were so much faster then Fisher will be as a high school kid. He won't even be as fast as Lucas....Lucas won FL twice also an all timer
Mark this thread Bro and I will come back and you can tell me what is what in the spring.
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Fisher now has a faster HS mile PR than the "much better" Lukas, German, and Rupp. (Of course Lukas' race is more impressive considering the weather, pacing, and competition.)His incredible consistency running in the low-4:00 range is unmatched. He's not trying to peak to squeak out a 3:59.9. It's just the shape he is in.I'd like to see him give the 2-Mile a real effort to further solidify his all-time status. An 8:35 is in the cards.Lukas is the best distance runner the US HS running scene has witnessed. Webb is obviously the best miler. But Grant could end up with the following line:US HS #3 Mile all timeUS HS #3 2-Mile all time (if he can go mid-8:30s)2 Footlocker National titlesALL TIME STATUS.
asu guy wrote:
He might break 4
Lucas, German and Rupp were all much better track runners then Fisher.
4:00.3
Letsrun Brothers,
Now matter how much you drool over Fisher, he does Not get all time status in cross due to the Split events...and the suckage of talent from NXN.
This is not the Ritz or Matt Withrow or Ruben Reina Footlocker it's the watered down version. Like Coke to Coke Zero
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[quote]BossyBoss wrote:
Fisher now has a faster HS mile PR than the "much better" Lukas, German, and Rupp. (Of course Lukas' race is more impressive considering the weather, pacing, and competition.)
His incredible consistency running in the low-4:00 range is unmatched. He's not trying to peak to squeak out a 3:59.9. It's just the shape he is in.
I'd like to see him give the 2-Mile a real effort to further solidify his all-time status. An 8:35 is in the cards.
Lukas is the best distance runner the US HS running scene has witnessed. Webb is obviously the best miler. But Grant could end up with the following line:
US HS #3 Mile all time
US HS #3 2-Mile all time (if he can go mid-8:30s)
2 Footlocker National titles
ALL TIME STATUS.
Additionally...
2 x New Balance Indoor National Mile titles
2 x Gatorade National Cross Country Player of the Year Award and possibly a third if he wins National Track and Field Player of the Year this summer. If he does that, that would separate him from all male athletes in any sport to have ever won Gatorade POY by him winning 3 awards of which two would be in two different sport categories. That is a real possibility.
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Crazy..crazy...seems like yesterday everyone was Arguing about when Grant would break 4 in the Mile and some even thinking he'd only achieve 3:57-3:58 in his lifetime.
Now Grant has done:
3:34.99 1500 (Indoors)
7:28.48 3000 (Legit held his HS Pace for nearly Two Miles / AR)
8:11.09 Two Miles
12:46.96 5000 (AR)
26:33.84 10,000 (AR)
Chris Solinsky famously said:
Chris Solinsky: "I Believe That I Was in Shape to Run Sub-7:30, Sub-12:50, and Probably Somewhere In The 26:40/26:30 Range"
Yet, Grant lived out what Solinsky dreamt of. Both coached by Jerry (crazy). Point is, Whatever people might say of Yared Nuguse. Grant put USA back on the map since Galen/Solinsky. Glad to see how far he's come.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.41
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