FL Final, Tamagno or Hunter...

Hunter

Is Rocha running FL?

Tamagno hasn't yet made it to Footlocker, and the West Region is incredibly difficult to qualify out of. Dressel, Maton, Armstrong, Mantz, Thomet, Reinhart, are all returning finalists who are stronger this year than the year before. Even getting top 10 is going to be a challenge, and an All-American from last year might not even make it to San Deigo this year--someone like Armstrong, who finished 6th at FLN last year, might not qualify. Tamagno is the course record holder at the venue where West regionals is held, but it's foolish to believe that he's certainly going to qualify for nationals. So for now, I have to go with Hunter...

It probably helps that I've "raced" Hunter a few times this year. If I were Californian my answer might be different.

I hope for Hunter, but I think it's a year too early for him.

A realist wrote:

Tamagno hasn't yet made it to Footlocker ... it's foolish to believe that he's certainly going to qualify for nationals.

The course at mt. Sac will be less than ideal for regionals. There has been a considerable amount of rain dumped on it this week and expect more during race day. There should be some unexpected results.

Then, the rain course will be used; i.e., FL West will be a 5k road race around the college. It's happened a few times.

wongg wrote:

Is Rocha running FL?

He's running nxn

I thought you needed a team for NXN? Who is he running with?

I think NXN allows individual qualifiers? That's why they changed the name from NTN to NXN

Exactly my thought wrote:

A realist wrote:

Tamagno hasn't yet made it to Footlocker ... it's foolish to believe that he's certainly going to qualify for nationals.

Few things are a lock. If you have been following Tamagno this cross country season you know he will certainly be in the top 10 at FL West...

and be racing in San Diego.

A realist wrote:

Tamagno hasn't yet made it to Footlocker, and the West Region is incredibly difficult to qualify out of. Dressel, Maton, Armstrong, Mantz, Thomet, Reinhart, are all returning finalists who are stronger this year than the year before. Even getting top 10 is going to be a challenge, and an All-American from last year might not even make it to San Deigo this year--someone like Armstrong, who finished 6th at FLN last year, might not qualify. Tamagno is the course record holder at the venue where West regionals is held, but it's foolish to believe that he's certainly going to qualify for nationals. So for now, I have to go with Hunter...

It probably helps that I've "raced" Hunter a few times this year. If I were Californian my answer might be different.

Any chance that Dressel might try Dresseling the competition during FL qualifiers? Always worth a shot right?

Get real... wrote:

Exactly my thought wrote:

Few things are a lock. If you have been following Tamagno this cross country season you know he will certainly be in the top 10 at FL West...

and be racing in San Diego.

I would be very surprised if Tamagno didn't get top 10 at FL West, considering how good he is on that course. However, he's NOT a lock:

Dressel is running fantastically this season, has a faster 3200 than Tamagno even though Tamagno has a better 1600, suggesting Dressel has better endurance. It's easy to imagine a scenario where Dressel is better than Tamagno.

Maton has a better mile than Tamagno, a better kick, and better proven XC endurance (Fantastic results OUTSIDE of his own state against other great competition). It's easy to imagine a scenario where Maton is better than Tamagno.

Armstrong has a better 3200 than Tamagno, despite having a slower 1600, suggesting Armstrong has better endurance--Armstrong also has a fantastic kick. Armstrong raced in California and handily beat Philip Rocha, Tamagno's main competition this year, by the same margins that Tamagno beats Rocha. It's easy to imagine a scenario where Armstrong is better than Tamagno.

Mantz...would have won this meet healthy. He's been incredible this season, destroying Armstrong and remains the only person to have beaten a fully competitive Tanner Anderson. He's been getting in good training after the injury healed and I think he'll be in good shape by Saturday. I can imagine a scenario where Mantz is better than Tamagno.

Thomet is running a little better than Armstrong, and although his accolades aren't that impressive compared to others in the race, he did make it to Footlocker last year and finished 16th while sick. Considering he's beaten Armstrong recently, I can imagine a scenario where Thomet is better than Tamagno.

Reinhart ran a faster state time than Tamagno did. Separate races, but that's very impressive. Reinhart is a returning All-American at Footlocker, and it's easy to imagine a scenario where Reinhart is better than Tamagno.

That's six VERY capable athletes who each have the ability to beat Tamagno, some of whom could probably beat him even if they don't have their best days. And those are just the returners from last year's top 10. There are certain to be a dozen athletes whom I haven't mentioned or looked up capable of finishing in the 4 slots behind them, or even mixing it up with them. Tamagno has a very good chance of qualifying, but there are definitely scenarios where he doesn't make the top 10. And that's before throwing in the uncertainties of race day: tripping, losing a shoe, getting sick, everything else.

It's not a lock; it's likely.

True, Mike Brannigan and Edwin Roto who were favorites in the NE race didn't make it

Seyta wrote:

Any chance that Dressel might try Dresseling the competition during FL qualifiers? Always worth a shot right?

Idk, but he might Dressel them in the final.

Your forgetting one ingedient Tamagno has going for him...

He's always improving... a lot.

Tamagno ran a 4:09 as a Frosh and a 4:05 equiv as a soph. Big improvement, but his baseline was already insanely high. All the runners I mentioned improve a lot too--Maton has practically patented improvement, Reinhart, Dressel, and Mantz have improved a lot--and I labeled reasons why Armstrong and Thomet THIS year are just as strong as Tamagno.

Please don't take this as an attack on Tamagno. I'm mostly playing devil's advocate here: I think he's going to qualify. But it's not absolutely certain that he will.

Yeah, honestly you guys are being a little ridiculous. I have a really hard time believing he won't make the top 10 qualifiers for the west regional on his best course, which he recently set the course record for. To compare his times at state, while I realize all that we have to go off of, isn't really fair seeing as he wasn't racing in a competitive division and doesn't sound like he was his best on that day. I don't really like the kid, or his earings, but he's not going to outright lose to 10 other people, and I realize that the region is really strong. For one, we don't know that Rocha will race Footlocker (Unless we do). He knows that course too well and it plays too well into his hands for him not to at least take 10th place.

Tamagnos racing face wrote:

Yeah, honestly you guys are being a little ridiculous. I have a really hard time believing he won't make the top 10 qualifiers for the west regional on his best course, which he recently set the course record for. To compare his times at state, while I realize all that we have to go off of, isn't really fair seeing as he wasn't racing in a competitive division and doesn't sound like he was his best on that day. I don't really like the kid, or his earings, but he's not going to outright lose to 10 other people, and I realize that the region is really strong. For one, we don't know that Rocha will race Footlocker (Unless we do). He knows that course too well and it plays too well into his hands for him not to at least take 10th place.

You might be missing the point. Qualifying for FL in a strong region is not a given. The difference between first and tenth can be smaller than you think. Olin Hacker barely kicked his way in to tenth in the midwest region after a smoking stretch in which he looked like a top ten guy in the nation and even won the NIKE Heartland regional easily. The point here is Tamango is a great runner but the margin can be smaller than you think. A little off day can happen. I agree with the statement that there is no such thing as a lock.