After watching FL today, the question for me now becomes, "When will Grant Fisher break 4:00?"
I don't have any doubt that he does it in HS. That kid is incredible. He just destroyed the field. Over the span of 2.5 minutes, he put what 10 seconds on them.
As I said on the thread, at that point, he wasn't racing the field, he was racing Ritz for history. Well in track, it's time to race Webb for history.
Get him in a college or pro race and let's see how low he can go.
-Rojo
PS. I guess i could see him not doing it if he only goes to adidas NYC and the weather is awful there.
PPS. Yes. I know I love to hype the prodigies but they make the sport exciting for me. I was driving the Ritz bandwagon as the first sub-27 white man (missed out on that) and then raved about Saarel.
Make your predicitions now, When does Grant Fisher break 4:00 and how close to Webb's 3:53 does he get?
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The kid looks like a real star.
3:58.52 is my prediction for his high school mile PR. -
Goes sub 4 twice this spring with one being a big breakthrough of 3:56.7.
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goKIDgo wrote:
The kid looks like a real star.
3:58.52 is my prediction for his high school mile PR.
No way in hell man. He's going to run at least 3:58.51 -
He'll PROBABLY break 4:00 (He's certainly CAPABLE, but injuries, bad pacing, bad weather, etc...) but NO CHANCE IN HELL he runs 3:53. I'm betting a sub-2:00 marathon happens before another American high schooler goes 3:53 (and I think that probably won't happen for at least 30 years).
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Fisher made his move earlier this year and ran 6 seconds faster. I don't think his fitness has improved substantially. He may break 4:00, but if so it will likely be in the 3:58.00-3:59.99 range. Nothing close to Webb, who was biologically much more mature than Fisher is. Fisher still looks like a boy.
I'll bet on Tamagno being the top miler this coming track season. He'll be pissed with 5th place at FL. Fisher is a huge talent and is very classy, but Tamagno is special. -
LetsRun.com wrote:
After watching FL today, the question for me now becomes, "When will Grant Fisher break 4:00?"
I don't have any doubt that he does it in HS. That kid is incredible. He just destroyed the field. Over the span of 2.5 minutes, he put what 10 seconds on them.
As I said on the thread, at that point, he wasn't racing the field, he was racing Ritz for history. Well in track, it's time to race Webb for history.
Get him in a college or pro race and let's see how low he can go.
-Rojo
PS. I guess i could see him not doing it if he only goes to adidas NYC and the weather is awful there.
PPS. Yes. I know I love to hype the prodigies but they make the sport exciting for me. I was driving the Ritz bandwagon as the first sub-27 white man (missed out on that) and then raved about Saarel.
Fisher will run 3:57 - 3:58 at best. He doesn't have the speed to run a 3:53 mile in HS. It'll be more interesting to see what kind of 5k this kid throws down. -
Horrible logic (not unusual around here) regarding your fitness comment. He's MUCH improved this year. On comparable courses where he's at least somewhat trying, he's been 20 seconds faster than a year ago. At FLMW and today, the course conditions were muddy/snowy (Kenosha) or soft (several muddy areas on the course today), and he still ran faster while waiting until the final 800 to make a move. Last year he was in a neck and neck battle with Dressel over the last 800m- you think that doesn't help a bit at the end of a race? He did a complete turn-around today with about 300m to go today to check on the gap. It was big.
This was one of the strongest fields in history, with many top returners (all of which have been setting course records all season, running "14:30-this" and "14:40-that"...or breaking so-and-so's record), and he just destroyed them over the last 2:30 of the race.
The Big Urn wrote:
Fisher made his move earlier this year and ran 6 seconds faster. I don't think his fitness has improved substantially. He may break 4:00, but if so it will likely be in the 3:58.00-3:59.99 range. Nothing close to Webb, who was biologically much more mature than Fisher is. Fisher still looks like a boy.
I'll bet on Tamagno being the top miler this coming track season. He'll be pissed with 5th place at FL. Fisher is a huge talent and is very classy, but Tamagno is special. -
Rojo, I think you're being too optimistic here. Fisher is an excellent runner, and won that race as easily as Cheserek won NCAAs (and in the same manner), but I don't think he's going sub-4 for several reasons.
Firstly, he doesn't like running for time--he likes racing. If he goes to the Dream Mile I don't doubt that he'll win, but he'll win with a fast last 200, or maybe a good last 600--he's not going to go balls to the wall and risk losing. Sub-4 is dependent on how fast Maton, Tamagno, and whoever else steps up can run in the mile. I'm sure Maton just had a crappy day, but who knows whether he's really going to be much faster than 4:03 in the spring, and who knows if Tamagno will even reach 4:03. Fisher would be just as happy to win in a comfortable 4:01 than to win in a painful 3:58--and much happier than if he lost with a 3:59 or 4:00.
Secondly, there's the unknowable factor. Injury, burnout, never had good weather, never had the right mindset or competition. I'm sure he likes running now, but what if he decided he didn't really feel like training hard and trying to go for sub-4? What if his newfound fame gets to him and he underperforms or hates running?
Thirdly, sub-4 is FAST! Verzbicas won by about 20 seconds when he jogged to a 14:59 his senior year, and then ran 8:29 for the 2 mile, and basically won everything in sight, and he still only ran 3:59.71 or something at the Dream Mile, with a high school pacer and Jantzen Oshier taking the lead all the time. It's just not an easy thing to do.
That said, if Fisher really wants to do it, and lucks out with training, weather, and competition, I could see him running 3:57 or 3:58. Certainly, he has it in him to break 4 in high school only competition, assuming that competition is fantastic and he pushes from at least 600 out. All the best for him.
No one in their right minds should bet against him again for the rest of his high school career. -
You make a lot of good points, but sub-4 isn't just any fast time, it's really something special. If Fisher would rather win comfortably in 4:01 than take a chance to try to run 3:58, it would be pretty disappointing. Hope he goes for it, and I think he's got the ability, but there just isn't any margin for error.
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Also you didn't start the Ben Saarel bandwagon. Anybody with half a brain knew he was going to win that Dream Mile.
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He'll break 4 as a sophomore in college.
There's a reason breaking 4 is a big deal. It's hard. Really, really hard. And there's a reason only 5 kids have ever done it in the US.
Cheserek did not break 4 in HS and he is substantially better than Fisher.
C'mon man. You sound almost as ignorant as a lets run poster. -
Rojo didn't claim to start the Saarel bandwagon; he just said that he raved about Saarel. Also - Verzbicas ran 3:59 in the rain with negative splits. You pointed out that he had a pacer, but the pacer brought him through 800 in 2:02... not exactly ideal. He would've been 3:57 with Ventolin-like conditions. As for Fisher's fitness being roughly the same - I assume that was a troll attempt. He is much more fit this year than last. To the poster concerned with burnout - not likely considering Fisher's widely publicized low mileage approach (50ish per week). I just don't see burnout as a possibility.
Anyways - I am guessing he will run 3:57-3:58 if he gets in the right race and gets some decent weather. Webb's record is safe and Ryun's #2 spot seems secure as well. 3rd fastest ever? Maybe. I would also love to see him take a crack at Ritzenhein's state records - 8:41.1 and 13:44. -
162430 wrote: As for Fisher's fitness being roughly the same - I assume that was a troll attempt. He is much more fit this year than last. To the poster concerned with burnout - not likely considering Fisher's widely publicized low mileage approach (50ish per week). I just don't see burnout as a possibility.
Anyways - I am guessing he will run 3:57-3:58 if he gets in the right race and gets some decent weather. Webb's record is safe and Ryun's #2 spot seems secure as well. 3rd fastest ever? Maybe. I would also love to see him take a crack at Ritzenhein's state records - 8:41.1 and 13:44.
I think you're right. I have no doubt Fisher will be in sub-4:00 shape this spring, the only question is if he really goes for it at the Dream Mile. I'm guessing he won't push the pace, and like "But..." said, it's up to Maton, Tamagno et al. to ensure that Fisher needs to run sub-4:00 to win the race.
I'm wondering whether he runs World Cross this year. I don't think Michigan has a big indoor season so I'd like to see him focus his attention on that. I'd be interested to see how he adapts to the 8k. -
The Big Urn wrote:
Fisher made his move earlier this year and ran 6 seconds faster. I don't think his fitness has improved substantially. He may break 4:00, but if so it will likely be in the 3:58.00-3:59.99 range. Nothing close to Webb, who was biologically much more mature than Fisher is. Fisher still looks like a boy.
I'll bet on Tamagno being the top miler this coming track season. He'll be pissed with 5th place at FL. Fisher is a huge talent and is very classy, but Tamagno is special.
A lot of people aren't aware Tamagno is coming off illness. He was ill at the regional and didn't say much about it. Sick as dog just a couple of days before that race. That said, I agree Tamagno is special - at the mile. I believe at the mile he's going to have a huge drop by his senior year. He has much better leg speed than Fisher without really working on it (which I think he should do).
Fisher however, is going to put up some big times in the 2 mile / 5k this year if he decides to do so, rather than just trying to run to win. Fisher is special at 2 miles on up. -
Jonathan Gault wrote:
I'm wondering whether he runs World Cross this year. I don't think Michigan has a big indoor season so I'd like to see him focus his attention on that. I'd be interested to see how he adapts to the 8k.
You are correct - our indoor season is not very big. The state athletic association does not recognize indoor track, so all of the events are put on by the coach's association. Most top athletes will participate in a few indoor meets and usually the (unofficial) state meet, but the last couple of years some larger indoor national meets have coincided with the state meet watering down the state level of competition even further. I would love to see Grant give world cross a go. I have not heard anything about his winter plans, but will put some feelers out and report back. -
The thread asks me when Fisher will break 4 and how close to 3:53 he will get, so I shall answer.
Sub-4 as a freshman indoors. Huge hit in the NCAA and is an NCAA champion by sophomore year in some event. Ends up running something around 3:53 as a pro. -
It's never for sure. He could get a stress fracture in February and miss eight weeks of running. That being said, I think he can do it, for sure, but part of me hopes that he doesn't run THAT fast. Part of what enabled Webb to run 3:53 was hammering insane interval workouts. That's not the best thing for long-term development. I'd rather Fisher runs 4:02-3:58 this year and goes on to run well in college than have him run 3:55 and burn up. When you go down the list of top HS mile times, several of the really fast guys in the last 20 years struggled mightily in college.
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He runs 4:09
Drops out of school Sophomore year -
Call me crazy but I think we will see 4 guys break 4 this year. I think Fisher will do it first and others who are close to him will take confidence in that. I expect fisher will break arcadia invitational. And 4 runners will get itst the dream mile with fisher winning.
