Paris Mens 5000m Start List - Can Galen Rupp Get the American Record?

Rupp sub 12:51 for 2nd place.

For Rupp to set an AR, the race would have to go out that fast to begin with. He won't force it on his own. I don't see the race going out much faster than 13 flat pace, and the fastest kicker winning in no faster than 12:57.

Yes a lot of dudes broke 12:50 in Paris a couple years ago, but sub 12:50s are such rare occurrences you shouldn't too excited every time a 5k is run in Paris.

Sunshiner wrote:

For Rupp to set an AR, the race would have to go out that fast to begin with. He won't force it on his own. I don't see the race going out much faster than 13 flat pace, and the fastest kicker winning in no faster than 12:57.

Yes a lot of dudes broke 12:50 in Paris a couple years ago, but sub 12:50s are such rare occurrences you shouldn't too excited every time a 5k is run in Paris.

You're probably right, but we can hope. I think Ndiku is going after sub-13 as a minimum.

The race will go out at a strong pace for the first mile or so, start to slow after 2k with a few 64's 65's coming down to a last 600m burn up. 3 or 4 runners will dip under 13, one of them possibly being Rupp.

If, and it's a big if, the pace stays honest throughout, I would guess Rupp is ready for somewhere in the 12.47-12.52 region.

While I agree that True will most likely not beat Rupp, you should probably check your facts next time you try to berate someone.

sdfasdfds wrote:

Hey in case you haven't noticed Rupp is only in 26:44 10k shape as evidenced by his 26:44 10k which he ran all-out.

True will not beat Rupp and Rupp will not beat Ndiku. Anyone not blinded by fanboyism can see this.

Nope.

Rupp IS a 26:44 guy.

However, he is likely in better shape than 26:44. When Mary Cain ran close to 5 at nationals indoors last year she was not in "5 minute shape". Likewise, Rupp's 10k was not "all out" as you claim. You don't close in 1:57 if you are running all out the entire race. Rupp, given same conditions, could certainly go faster at 10,000. How much I cannot say.

It is worth noting though that Rupp had flawless pacemaking through 8k+ of that race, which is very rare in any race, and exceptionally unlikely to happen in a DL race. Getting pacemaking for that long or that even is uncommon...and both at once is like winning the lotto.

Rupp has a 12.48 potential, but the race will probably be tactical, so a more realistic 12.56 - 13.00 is on the cards. I doubt he will be able to resist the big kickers on the last lap. The big kickers can finish with a 52-53 last lap, Rupp would probably be 1-2 seconds off that.

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Fortunately, now and then, athletes can actually surpass expectations. Chances are low at any given meet so no one likes to predict it, but someone could surprise with a breakthrough.

How about Rupp winning in 12:48? I could easily go with True or Lalang running 12:56, but Rupp's prospects are more exciting.

Also, it doesn't all depend on a pacer. If conditions are good, and Rupp is committed to a record, I see him taking the lead at 4K and pushing it. It's not like it would significantly reduce his chances of winning.

If this race is as fast as it could be, like 12:45-47 for the winner, I see no reason why Rupp can't run under 12:50 and it wouldn't surprise me. With what he has done at the mile indoor and 10k just a bit ago, I think it is only a matter of having the right pace makers and race and he will be 12:46-49.

sorry for the double post, but also some say that he won't be able to kick. If the race is sub 12:50 and he is on his game I think he has a great chance at winning. His strength is superior to almost everyones in the field and if he is in good position he will be able to kick with anyone. I know it's a lot of variables but I've seen far crazier things.

Horst Girth wrote:

The faster the pace, the better for Rupp in terms of who can kick off a tough slog. Given a good pace, Rupp is ready for the AR.

Pardon me, but Rupp is not capable of leading a race when it's fast, especially against top competition. I'm not saying he won't, but if he does then it will be a miracle, as it's something that he never does. He doesn't even lead when the competition is much slower than he is, so he is NOT PREPARED to lead and push against runners who are equal in ability.

Two 10k's in the last month , one a record effort , lets see the toll it takes on Rupp.

Rupp real toll is his wife getting through the last weeks of her pregnancy.

Probably nike because he's training with coach li and li's runners (lag at and sambu) are nike sponsored

i suspect that rupp will run free after his most important family stuff.

ben true with a time trial 337, that is golden. incredible.

true could break through and be on rupps heels far into the race.

could be a good one.

one legged dog wrote:

Two 10k's in the last month , one a record effort , lets see the toll it takes on Rupp.

One a record effort, one a glorified tempo run. He'll be fine.

Can't believe True is even being mentioned in this thread.

Rupp has several American records, an Olympic silver medal, and a 3:50 indoor mile to his name.

True is a JV runner in comparison. Didn't even have the stones to show up for the US Champs.

Some faceless African will win. Rupp will run sub-13. True will be eaten up and spit out the back.

3:37 is really not that great, everyone, not unless it were paired at the other end with a 27 flat or something. For comparison, Jager has run 3:36, Hill 3:36, Bumbalough 3:37 like 5 years ago, Lomong 3:32, etc. etc. 3:37 is nothing to get worked up about.