I Chose D2 wrote:
Should be a DQ for Providence in the DMR.
Cut off Arkansas and then stepped on the rail and fell taking down 3 other teams. How did they not get DQ'ed?
NCAA indoor 2024 Day 1 thread
College Running
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But wait wrote:
Sorry but you completely disregarded St Pierre. I hope she does the 5K. Her 3k World performance makes her a total major threat in the 5K especially relative to Henes, Andres and Infeld. That woman is on fire. And I hope she runs both.
I completely agree with you about St. Pierre, that why I wrote at the end *St. Pierre* under the women with slower 5k PB’s. If St. Pierre runs the 5k, I think it will be St. Pierre, Cranny, and Valby making the team. TBD what event(s) she will run. I think based on interviews/podcasts Monson, clearly another top American 5k runner, is only going to be in the 10k.
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hmm.... wrote:
What makes you think Cranny would do a 1500/5000 double? She isn't competitive internationally in the 1500 at all. Did I miss some announcement? If not, she's doing the 5000/10000 double imo.
I put Cranny, Monson and likely Schweizer before Valby, assuming Schweizer is mostly back health-wise (which is not a small "if"). If Monson doesn't run the 5000, then I'd definitely bet on Valby. I'd love to see Josette Andrews in there, but like you I give the edge to Valby.
Don’t see Andrews making the team based on her past performances in key races. She chokes and more importantly has no strategy. Her PRs are in races with no competition and basically time trials. Hoping it’s Valby over her.
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hmm.... wrote:
What makes you think Cranny would do a 1500/5000 double? She isn't competitive internationally in the 1500 at all. Did I miss some announcement? If not, she's doing the 5000/10000 double imo.
I put Cranny, Monson and likely Schweizer before Valby, assuming Schweizer is mostly back health-wise (which is not a small "if"). If Monson doesn't run the 5000, then I'd definitely bet on Valby. I'd love to see Josette Andrews in there, but like you I give the edge to Valby.
Why I think cranny is doing 1500/5000
- Cranny has said those are the events she prefers in multiple podcasts and interviews following the 2023 season, and why she dislikes the 10,000. Switching to Team Boss gives her more say in these decisions.
- Cranny is not running the TEN, which she would do (unless injured) if she was planning to run the 10,000 because she needs the standard
- the 5000 is before the 1500 at trials, and the 5000 is her best shot of making the team
I just think Schweitzer has a really long road still ahead of her to recovery from surgery based on her IG, but if she gets back she’s a huge threat. Monson and the OAC has hinted in multiple interviews and podcasts she’s only doing the 10k, but obviously this could change and would have major implications on the 5k
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37_trillion_cells wrote:
I think Valby is a very serious contender to make the 5000m Olympic team. I think she will make the Olympic team. The list of American women who have run faster than her is not particularly long. On top of that she is great in the heat, which isn’t always a factor but can be at trials.
The following women (who are currently running) have PB’s faster than what Valby just ran (and it didn’t look like she was particularly tired at the end).- Alicia Monson - reportedly only running the 10k where her chance to medal is more realistic
- Karissa Schweitzer - coming back from injury and surgery and has a long way to go, and for what it’s worth is not ready to be running the TEN, but if healthy a factor for sure
- Elise Cranny - definitely a favorite to make the team as long as she’s healthy. Looks like she’ll be running 1500/5k
- Josette Andrews - she’s going all in on the 5k this year which makes her more of a threat and is definitely a factor but she has a history of not making it happen when it matters
- Elly Henes - also a factor, but had lung surgery in the fall and wasn’t in her usual form indoor season. She’s got time to keep building fitness
- Vanessa Frazier - her PB is from 4 years ago and she hasn’t come close to it since. I don’t think she’ll be a factor at trials
Courtney Frerichs/Courtney Wayment - likely all in on the steeplechase
- Emily Infeld - her PB was from last year, could be a factor. Unclear if running 5k/10k double or just one
- Rachel Smith - PB is a few years old, hasn’t run close to it recently (though did miss time for maternity leave). Seems to be focusing on longer distances but unclear
- Natasha Rogers - training has been Marathon focused, but she made it last year and is a wild card
slower PB’s but could be in the 5k final: Kelati, *St. Pierre*, Tuohy, Morgan
All this is to say - if people run the events that they are expected to run I just don’t see 3 people who I feel confident are going to beat Valby in the 5000.
Good breakdown. I think St Pierre and Cranny will double (and be the class of the field). From there it’d be between Valby, Rogers, Tuohy, Andrews and Henes. But possible that if St Pierre makes the 15 too, she drops the 5. I think for the rest you listed (outside of Kelati), their best days may be in the past or the 10K is their better chance.
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Blank231 wrote:
Dwightarm wrote:
That was… surprising.
Markezich didn’t compete in the mile heats earlier, right? And correct me if im wrong but she received the baton in front of BYU?
Yeah she looked kind of tired. Hopefully not overcooked for tomorrow's 3k or something.
No mile heats for Markezich, just 3km for individual events.
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wejo wrote:
DESTRUCTION BY NICO YOUNG
That was a total dismantling of the field.
Young hung out in the back for a long while, I looked down for a little bit, and suddenly he was in the front third. Once Wolfe broke it open, Nico just started to wind it up and took off. People who simply analyze Nico's splits and argue about whether he was too slow will miss it, and should watch video: Young spent a bunch of time on the edge of lane 2, eased up before the line, and blew the doors off everyone in between. Very, very impressive.
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Downey wp wrote:
Someone needs to explain to HO and DL that if they can close in 31, they had too much left in the tank. If they are more aggressive earlier, they go 2-3.
They always run that way. I find it hilarious. Valby and Roe ran like East Africans and the two Alabama girls have long since been Americanized
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xcx wrote:
Yes, Markezich had 4 or 5 meters on Chamberlain coming out of the exchange. Chamberlain caught her and sat on her until the bell and then took off. Markevich should have been pushing the pace harder. Chamberlain is a 2:03 800 runner.
I wasn't surprised Markezich lost. That's not her best role, regardless of times in prior races. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Markezich got the baton several meters ahead of Maatoug in last year's ACC DMR, only for Maatoug to sit behind her then run right past her. Maatoug also is 2:03 for 800.
Once I realized who was behind Markezich this time I thought the same thing would happen. Markezich is simply overly passive in that situation. It must not be natural for her to kick away.
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37_trillion_cells wrote:
I think Valby is a very serious contender to make the 5000m Olympic team. I think she will make the Olympic team. The list of American women who have run faster than her is not particularly long. On top of that she is great in the heat, which isn’t always a factor but can be at trials.
The following women (who are currently running) have PB’s faster than what Valby just ran (and it didn’t look like she was particularly tired at the end).- Alicia Monson - reportedly only running the 10k where her chance to medal is more realistic
- Karissa Schweitzer - coming back from injury and surgery and has a long way to go, and for what it’s worth is not ready to be running the TEN, but if healthy a factor for sure
- Elise Cranny - definitely a favorite to make the team as long as she’s healthy. Looks like she’ll be running 1500/5k
- Josette Andrews - she’s going all in on the 5k this year which makes her more of a threat and is definitely a factor but she has a history of not making it happen when it matters
- Elly Henes - also a factor, but had lung surgery in the fall and wasn’t in her usual form indoor season. She’s got time to keep building fitness
- Vanessa Frazier - her PB is from 4 years ago and she hasn’t come close to it since. I don’t think she’ll be a factor at trials
Courtney Frerichs/Courtney Wayment - likely all in on the steeplechase
- Emily Infeld - her PB was from last year, could be a factor. Unclear if running 5k/10k double or just one
- Rachel Smith - PB is a few years old, hasn’t run close to it recently (though did miss time for maternity leave). Seems to be focusing on longer distances but unclear
- Natasha Rogers - training has been Marathon focused, but she made it last year and is a wild card
slower PB’s but could be in the 5k final: Kelati, *St. Pierre*, Tuohy, Morgan
All this is to say - if people run the events that they are expected to run I just don’t see 3 people who I feel confident are going to beat Valby in the 5000.
Monson, Cranny, ESP, Morgan and Schweizer are the only few that I think are still better than Valby at 5k. but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Valby surpasses Morgan and Schweizer by the trials.
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I watched the splits live earlier but caught the YouTube video once I was home and wow, watching Nico shred through the field with ease the last 400 was so awesome. I’m so happy for him.
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Gator bait wrote:
She already had that; the USATF Automatic is 15:10.
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Good breakdown. I think St Pierre and Cranny will double (and be the class of the field). From there it’d be between Valby, Rogers, Tuohy, Andrews and Henes. But possible that if St Pierre makes the 15 too, she drops the 5. I think for the rest you listed (outside of Kelati), their best days may be in the past or the 10K is their better chance.
At the Oly Trials? Maybe. There are 3 days between 5k finals and 1500 quarterfinals. So, doubling is eminently doable.
ESP is less likely of the two to try this since she's been solely focused on the 1500 for a few years now. She may not wish to put her 1500 in jeopardy by having an extra 10,000 meters of racing in her legs just before hand.
At the Olympics? Forget it. Events overlap. 1500 quarters are the day after 5k semis.
Bottom line: if either or both qualify for both events in Paris, you'll see Cranny in the 5k and ESP in the 1500.
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Muller\'s Ratchet wrote:
Thanksmayte wrote:
Plenty of time left to get it. She’s definitely in the mix now. That looked very easy.
yes and no... would have been a huge help to get it. Now she has to add one more big effort, probably involving travel to the west coast between now and NCAA and the Trials.
I disagree on the necessity of a west coast trip, because this track is probably not much faster than an outdoor track for Valby. She consequently might get the Oly Standard in collegiate Outdoors, and if not, will plan to run it at the Trials by default.
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it is what it is wrote:
I disagree on the necessity of a west coast trip, because this track is probably not much faster than an outdoor track for Valby. She consequently might get the Oly Standard in collegiate Outdoors, and if not, will plan to run it at the Trials by default.
After tomorrow's indoor 3k, we may not see PV again until the SEC outdoor champs May 9-11 . . . and possibly in the Steeple, which she teased a few months back.
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Gator bait wrote:
Thanksmayte wrote:
Agree. But they also finished feeling great, whilst Roe finished dying horribly and feeling awful. They were never going to get Valby. Probs happy to get the 3-4, rather than the 2-3.
Did Roe really come back to anchor OSU dmr in 4:35?
Results say it was Sivan Auerbach.
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HarrierStu wrote:
37_trillion_cells wrote:
I think Valby is a very serious contender to make the 5000m Olympic team. I think she will make the Olympic team. The list of American women who have run faster than her is not particularly long. On top of that she is great in the heat, which isn’t always a factor but can be at trials.
The following women (who are currently running) have PB’s faster than what Valby just ran (and it didn’t look like she was particularly tired at the end).- Alicia Monson - reportedly only running the 10k where her chance to medal is more realistic
- Karissa Schweitzer - coming back from injury and surgery and has a long way to go, and for what it’s worth is not ready to be running the TEN, but if healthy a factor for sure
- Elise Cranny - definitely a favorite to make the team as long as she’s healthy. Looks like she’ll be running 1500/5k
- Josette Andrews - she’s going all in on the 5k this year which makes her more of a threat and is definitely a factor but she has a history of not making it happen when it matters
- Elly Henes - also a factor, but had lung surgery in the fall and wasn’t in her usual form indoor season. She’s got time to keep building fitness
- Vanessa Frazier - her PB is from 4 years ago and she hasn’t come close to it since. I don’t think she’ll be a factor at trials
Courtney Frerichs/Courtney Wayment - likely all in on the steeplechase
- Emily Infeld - her PB was from last year, could be a factor. Unclear if running 5k/10k double or just one
- Rachel Smith - PB is a few years old, hasn’t run close to it recently (though did miss time for maternity leave). Seems to be focusing on longer distances but unclear
- Natasha Rogers - training has been Marathon focused, but she made it last year and is a wild card
slower PB’s but could be in the 5k final: Kelati, *St. Pierre*, Tuohy, Morgan
All this is to say - if people run the events that they are expected to run I just don’t see 3 people who I feel confident are going to beat Valby in the 5000.
Monson, Cranny, ESP, Morgan and Schweizer are the only few that I think are still better than Valby at 5k. but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Valby surpasses Morgan and Schweizer by the trials.
Monson may not run the 5k. I don’t like seeing these pros double-up, spread themselves too thin, and then get their doors blown off at World Championships.
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#200
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