dude what wrote:
Mkenya Daima wrote:
Our international men's preview is out. We've narrowed down the potential winners to 5.
Which of the following 5 men will win NY on Sunday - Wilson Kipsang, Ghirmay Ghebreslassie, Lelisa Desisa, Lemi Berhanu, or Geoffrey Kamworor? Tell us below and vote in our poll.
PS. I'm turning this into the official thread.
Kipsang wins with Course Record, followed closely by Kamwo. Or Kamwo wins with CR. Word on the street is that Kamwo is in ridiculous shape. He does this thing where he goes to NYC to race well before smashing the World Half, and he trains with the train Kipchoge. You go and ask anyone at Kaptagat if you don't believe me. I saw a snapshot of his pre-NYC month and it's dumfounding to say the least. If that 4:28 a few years ago was a crazy, you may be in for a rude shock (barring bad weather, of course). If weather is nice, it will be either Kipsang or Kamwo, with CR going down. Although I should bet more on Kamwo because he has proven himself in terrible weather and I have seen his workouts of late. I just worry that he has a psychological hurdle with regards to the marathon that Kipsang simply does not have despite Berlin (which I totally believe to have been a psychological one and not physiological - he was scared of a showdown with Kipchoge. Go ask anyone at Keelu in Iten and they will whisper it to you).
The reason I insist CR may go down is that Mutai didn't even know the course when he set the CR and he certainly was not in shape for the current WR. Kipsang definitely is, and Kamwo is arguably close. And these guys know the course pretty well. When Mutai was dropping those 4:30s in NYC he was reserving his strength because he just didn't know what to expect - having run in Boston, he was expecting something big, heartbreak-hill-like, and then a nice downhill. You can ask him yourself if you don't believe me. Kipsang knows the course and he and Kamwo are expected to set a crazy duel in that final 10k.
That CR will stand for a LONG time. Mutai was absolutely in WR shape when he ran that. If he had run Berlin instead of NYC in 2011, he would have destroyed Patrick Makau.
Mutai was in then-WR. Not Current WR