Final Predictions - NCAA D1 XC top 10 2023

My most recent guess is:
1. Katelyn Tuohy
2. Parker Valby
3. Doris Lemngole
4. Hilda Olemomoi
5. Amina Maatoug
6. Elise Stearns
7. Maia Ramsden
8. Kaylee Mitchell
9. Olivia Markezich
10. Rosina Machu

1. Ky Robinson
2. Graham Blanks
3. Habtom Samuel
4. Nico Young
5. Drew Bosley
6. Alex Maier
7. Parker Wolfe
8. Other
9. Patrick Kiprop
10. Other

I forgot about Ramsden. I could see her (and others) round out the top 10... much harder to pick the men's side though. It seems wide open this year, a lot of contenders.

like last year you could see a bunch in the 5-10 range so who beats who could be anyone and on paper that range might be more like 5-15 or 20 but 5 emerge. so it is a guess

I decided to go with Tuohy because of Henes remarks about the shape she is in. Henes usually doesn't mince words. If Tuohy is really in 8:35 /15:00 shape (or better) she will be very tough to beat.

1) Kipnegetich

2) Young

3) Sharp

4) Robinson

5) Liking

6) Samuel

7) V. Kiprop

8) Musau

9) Wolfe

10) Bosley

W

Lemngole, Tuohy and Valby step to the line, each in roundabout 8:40 shape. As expected, Valby pulls away early with Lemngole and Tuohy in pursuit. Tuohy attacks at the 5k mark. Lemngole covers the move. The chasers rifle past Valby in tandem. Lemngole surges. Tuohy goes to the arms. Neither gains an edge. Unexpectedly, Valby regroups, measures the waning runners before her and finds something extra.

1 Tuohy
2 Valby
3 Lemngole
4 Stearns
5 Olemomoi
6 Markezich
7 Maatoug
8 Roe
9 Mitchell
10 Jepkirui
11 Ramsden
12 Asekol
13 Appleton
14 Noe
15 Churchill
16 Bunnage
17 Scrimgeour
18 Fetherstonhaugh
19 Larkin
20 Reiss

M

With improved speed and a feline feel for a course on which he learned a hard lesson in 2022, Wolfe delivers a tactical masterclass but can’t fend off Robinson and Blanks in the last 200m.

1 Robinson
2 Blanks
3 Wolfe
4 Samuel
5 Young

I like that you have Roe in the top 10. I didn't place her thete, but she is certainly capable. I am rooting for her to have a great race.

Guess yall not listing him will have to learn the hard way who Kipngetich is when he wins the race.

Obviously Tuohy wins.

this is what i had in the contest

Mens

Men's Individual Picks
1. Graham Blanks
2. Habtom Samuel
3. Ky Robinson
4. Nico Young
5. Drew Bosley
6. Denis Kipngetich
7. Parker Wolfe
8. Alex Maier
9. Bob Liking
10. Said Mechaal

Womens

1. Katelyn Tuohy
2. Parker Valby
3. Doris Lemngole
4. Amina Maatoug
5. Hilda Olemomoi
6. Elise Stearns
7. Olivia Markezich
8. Billah Jepkirui
9. Kaylee Mitchell
10. Taylor Roe

Men’s top 3 is

Graham Blanks

Ky Robinson

Nico Young (or Drew Bosley)

Graham Blanks will cook

Also Valbuena > Tuohy

Also Valby> Tuohy

I caught that after I made my pics. #3 Kenyan national XC champion.

Both Roe and Jepkirui looked smooth at Regionals. I'm not pulling for any particular team, but seeing Molly Born hang with them in her final NCAA XC race would be a nice surprise.

His day will come. No one's beating Ky today.

Women
1) Valby
2) Lemnhole
3) Tuohy
4) Maatoug
5) Stearns
6) Mitchell
7) Markezich
8) Asekol
9) Larkin
10) Mazza-Downie

Now ^THIS^, would be the “Miracle on Ice” Florida upset!

But I don’t even know whether Mazza-Downie is suiting up, lol.

Olemomoi outside the top 10? That's a bold pick.

My top 20 W team scorers (incl 7 of above) 3 NAU, 3 OSU, 2 FL, 2 BYU, 1 NC St etc

Katelyn Tuohy

Parker Valby
Doris Lemngole
Hilda Olemomoi
Maia Ramsden
Elise Stearns
Olivia Markezich
Greta Karinauskaite
Chloe Scrimgeour
Taylor Roe
Gracelyn Larkin
Margot Appleton
Annika Reiss
Billah Jepkirui
Amy Bunnage
Carmen Alder
Aubrey Frentheway
Flomena Asekol
Molly Born