Latest expert consensus is for around 130,000-250,000 deaths in US this year from COVID

Fauci said 1-200,000 deaths today. He wasn’t very comfortable saying it.

jesseriley wrote:

Fauci said 1-200,000 deaths today. He wasn’t very comfortable saying it.

Wrote this on another thread. This means absolute worst case scenario based off his number (I actually bumped it to 250k to be safe), we are looking at 3.5 million cases to provide this number (at a death rate of 7% which is incredibly high).

They are projecting anywhere between 8 and 14 million Americans will lose their jobs because of this.

The irony is that the vast majority of people championing current measures are salaried and have a very high job security - people of absolute privilege. Well guess who people are going to start coming after in a few months when they have nothing and no way to provide food and shelter for themselves?

But sure, lets keep freaking out like absolute a--holes and see what happens

They shut the entire country down. Think maybe that's the what made the difference? Hello?

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

If you look at places like china, italy and spain, that didn't happen. Take Italy, they ramped up from 500 to 5000 in about 2 weeks but since then things have been pretty flat (5-6k cases) for the past 10 days instead of doubling a couple more times.

Now the question in the US is where we are. Are we at the point where things level off or do we have a bunch of doublings till it happens? And the US is large enough that places will be weeks behind NYC.

And of course with any infection rate numbers, testing matters. I bet if we tested 10x as many people we would find a ton more cases.

Salvatore Stitchmo wrote:

The irony is that the vast majority of people championing current measures are salaried and have a very high job security - people of absolute privilege. Well guess who people are going to start coming after in a few months when they have nothing and no way to provide food and shelter for themselves?

I am a proponent of the self-isolation measures. I would like the government to raise my taxes a lot (along with those far richer than me) and use it to pay a basic income to everyone out of work for months, as well as grants to small businesses.

264 US deaths yesterday, down from 525 the day before. Why aren’t the media posting this???

unemployedquestion wrote:

264 US deaths yesterday, down from 525 the day before. Why aren’t the media posting this???

It's 7:25am on the East Coast. They probably will report it eventually, but the numbers trickle in, so they are probably waiting to see if that number holds. And a drop in deaths for a single day, while cases continue to skyrocket, is probably an aberration. It's an interesting data point, but unlikely to hold when all the other data points continue to move in the same direction.

unemployedquestion wrote:

264 US deaths yesterday, down from 525 the day before. Why aren’t the media posting this???

Yeah bud, it's already going down. It'll be zero by the end of the week. This is all the media, you can't even trust Fox News these days.

Salvatore Stitchmo wrote:

The irony is that the vast majority of people championing current measures are salaried and have a very high job security - people of absolute privilege. Well guess who people are going to start coming after in a few months when they have nothing and no way to provide food and shelter for themselves?

But sure, lets keep freaking out like absolute a--holes and see what happens

I don't understand people saying we're freaking out. I live in the Denver Metro area. Probably an area you would consider "freaking out". Trails are open. Grocery stores open. Gas stations open. Target and Home Depot open. My work open (although I'm working remotely by choice). It's pretty much normal, except for restaurants, bars, and entertainment. And many restaurants are still open and doing take out service.

There have been millions affected. I don't want to downplay that. And there has already been a bill passed to increase their unemployment payments, suspend some of their debt payments, and send them all a stimulus check. If it drags on for months, there will probably be more. Maybe you should quit freaking out.

land of enchantment wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

60 million Americans get the flu each year

FFS, comparisons to the flu are meaningless.

Why?

Because the media tells you so?

UsedToBeKnowItAll wrote:

I don't understand people saying we're freaking out. I live in the Denver Metro area. Probably an area you would consider "freaking out". Trails are open. Grocery stores open. Gas stations open. Target and Home Depot open. My work open (although I'm working remotely by choice). It's pretty much normal, except for restaurants, bars, and entertainment. And many restaurants are still open and doing take out service.

There have been millions affected. I don't want to downplay that. And there has already been a bill passed to increase their unemployment payments, suspend some of their debt payments, and send them all a stimulus check. If it drags on for months, there will probably be more. Maybe you should quit freaking out.

What you don’t seem to grasp is that this stimulus bill doesn’t come for free and will be a burden for years to come. Where i live, in FL, parks and trails have been closed

Drop in number of new cases. 50% drop in number of deaths.

The number of cases tracking is quite useless without tracking also the number of tests performed and the implied positive vs negative rate.

Other useful info is if they can somehow track illness time, between testing and either recovery or death. Of course, date of contracting the illness and date of testing can be quite different too

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Congratulations. I too live in a part of the US with less than 600 cases - trails open, grocery stores open, driving ranges open - almost the exact situation you describe. I am running, walking, even hit some golf balls yesterday. I work from home and right now I am still fortunate that my paycheck rolls in 2 x a month. Extraordinarily privileged and not freaking out because I don't need to.

But hey, call me a sucker for caring about people other than myself. You think increasing unemployment checks (up to a level, let's be real here, that is still less than what is required to live comfortably in this country) makes such an impact? A $1200 check? "suspending debt"?

People like us don't freak out brother. But my neighbors are - two girls in their twenties that work in hospitality and rely on non-taxed tips as a huge part of their income (hint this doesn't get included as part of their income that determines their welfare). So is the dude I spoke to who is working majorly reduced hours at a local coffee shop doing "to-go" coffees but lost his main job at a popular restaurant in our neighborhood and broke up with his girlfriend just before all this and can't afford a security deposit so is living on his friends couch.

The freak out was this incredibly ill thought out plan of action to protect what is appearing to be a very select portion of society - the elderly and genetically health compromised (who are at risk EVERY cold and flu season) and the group of humans who made choices in their lives to live unhealthy lifestyles such as demolishing cigarettes, playing video games instead of exercising and running to the doctor for garbage narcotics to treat a runny nose instead of training their immune systems to handle much greater adversities (like this).

So the country went from doing nothing to to doing the most extreme thing possible and if you think the impact of this is short rather than long term then you are delusional. That is the absolute definition of a freak out my man. Sure not you or I, privileged @ssholes that we are, but we are the exception to the rule here and not the norm.

Hyperbole is the debate tactic of the weak.

Spot on

Salvatore Stitchmo wrote:

The freak out was this incredibly ill thought out plan of action to protect what is appearing to be a very select portion of society - the elderly and genetically health compromised (who are at risk EVERY cold and flu season) and the group of humans who made choices in their lives to live unhealthy lifestyles such as demolishing cigarettes, playing video games instead of exercising and running to the doctor for garbage narcotics to treat a runny nose instead of training their immune systems to handle much greater adversities (like this).

Ah yes the freakout that every country in the world has had to resort to when caseload gets high enough.

Truly you are the genius that sees this as an overreaction over the hundreds of scientists and policymakers around the globe who arrived at the other conclusion

Actually state parks are offering free entry in Florida. Try again, but try to tell the truth.

@unemployed wrote:

unemployedquestion wrote:

What you don’t seem to grasp is that this stimulus bill doesn’t come for free and will be a burden for years to come. Where i live, in FL, parks and trails have been closed

Actually state parks are offering free entry in Florida. Try again, but try to tell the truth.

Actually... you're wrong! Try again!

self isolate now wrote:

Salvatore Stitchmo wrote:

The irony is that the vast majority of people championing current measures are salaried and have a very high job security - people of absolute privilege. Well guess who people are going to start coming after in a few months when they have nothing and no way to provide food and shelter for themselves?

I am a proponent of the self-isolation measures. I would like the government to raise my taxes a lot (along with those far richer than me) and use it to pay a basic income to everyone out of work for months, as well as grants to small businesses.

Why do that when you got printing presses?

While it will never completely be eradicated, it will take approximately 2 years before there arent new cases constantly popping up in American society