This is the best places I've seen of them asking a group of experts for their opinions and aggregating them.
The mean death estimate is now 246,000 in US and they didn't list the median. Looks to me to be a tad under 150,000. Can someone find that number?
The 246,000 is a number generated by FiveThirtyEight based on a survey of several experts.
Here is the link to the dataset from 538.
Since Trump will let us have to work on Easter, the numbers will be a lot higher in the coming month. I wouldn't be surprised that we will hit the millions.
Let's not forget that the US is not testing much.
COVID math wrote:
The 246,000 is a number generated by FiveThirtyEight based on a survey of several experts.
So who are these so called "experts" and what do they base their numbers on? Seems like every piece I see claiming someone is an "expert" does not in fact know anything about statistics and is pulling numbers out from their behind with beginner level mistakes.
1000 daily deaths by Monday.
10000 daily deaths by May.
Everyone knows the rules.
Math Professor wrote:
COVID math wrote:
The 246,000 is a number generated by FiveThirtyEight based on a survey of several experts.
So who are these so called "experts" and what do they base their numbers on? Seems like every piece I see claiming someone is an "expert" does not in fact know anything about statistics and is pulling numbers out from their behind with beginner level mistakes.
They're listed in the PDF:
https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/3/You're welcome!
The numbers from these 'experts' are all over the map. The take home message: nobody has a clue. There's been no similar pandemic in almost 100 years, so there is no reliable data for modeling and making these types of predictions.
Waste of time, and frankly these articles are in poor taste.
wejo wrote:
This is the best places I've seen of them asking a group of experts for their opinions and aggregating them.
The mean death estimate is now 246,000 in US and they didn't list the median. Looks to me to be a tad under 150,000. Can someone find that number?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-say-the-coronavirus-outlook-has-worsened-but-the-trajectory-is-still-unclear/
"The consensus estimate ranges, though, between 36,000 and 1.1 million"
We determine our own future.
Math Professor wrote:
COVID math wrote:
The 246,000 is a number generated by FiveThirtyEight based on a survey of several experts.
So who are these so called "experts" and what do they base their numbers on? Seems like every piece I see claiming someone is an "expert" does not in fact know anything about statistics and is pulling numbers out from their behind with beginner level mistakes.
That little graphical magic slider thingie on the NYT website is an expert
The way sh*t is really starting to hit the fan in Italy with the worst numbers to date today after 17 days of confinement, it is looking terrible indeed.
Wow we're really going to have to brace ourselves...
deathinparadise wrote:
The way sh*t is really starting to hit the fan in Italy with the worst numbers to date today after 17 days of confinement, it is looking terrible indeed.
Wow we're really going to have to brace ourselves...
Wow we're really going to have to brace ourselves … to hang the old and weak out to dry.
1 million cases in the US by May 1. Within 2 weeks from then Covid-19 will disappear forever.
deathinparadise wrote:
The way sh*t is really starting to hit the fan in Italy with the worst numbers to date today after 17 days of confinement, it is looking terrible indeed.
Wow we're really going to have to brace ourselves...
The Italy numbers are good and bad.
The numbers of cases have at worst plateaued, and may be declining.
Their death toll is very high, and clearly has shown that their healthcare system is extremely inefficient and ineffective.
Hopefully the US system will fair much better.
These numbers are so outrageous. They (mad scientists and liberal left media) just want us to be terrified. There are several drugs that have a high likelihood of being cures, based on much evidence from scientists in many different nations.
that seems like a lot of deaths from what Fox "News", Jerry Falwell, Moscow Mitch McConnell and Rush Limbaugh said was fake news and a hoax
The Great Culling
NOBODY knows. It's all guesses at this point. Just keep doing your part and praying wouldn't hurt either.
finallyransub17 wrote:
"The consensus estimate ranges, though, between 36,000 and 1.1 million"
We determine our own future.
Wejo, shouldn't you stop spreading FUD articles if this is the quality of your "expert consensus"? Seems more like POS
tin can man wrote:
These numbers are so outrageous. They (mad scientists and liberal left media) just want us to be terrified. There are several drugs that have a high likelihood of being cures, based on much evidence from scientists in many different nations.
Weird, isn't it? The right side of the aisle is all about the boogeyman, fear this/that, blah. Now there's a REAL boogeyman out there, and they've let the left side of the aisle have it?
zoomx83 wrote:
tin can man wrote:
These numbers are so outrageous. They (mad scientists and liberal left media) just want us to be terrified. There are several drugs that have a high likelihood of being cures, based on much evidence from scientists in many different nations.
Weird, isn't it? The right side of the aisle is all about the boogeyman, fear this/that, blah. Now there's a REAL boogeyman out there, and they've let the left side of the aisle have it?
Its a distraction meant to deflect attention from the fact that they are all in favor of socialism now.