What do you think is the fastest an average man can go on 10k if trained optimally (hypothetical) ?

Starno wrote:

Imagine we take an average man without any genetically superior attribute (let's assume we know it). A pure average Joe.

And the guy starts to train at 14 yo, for years, with the best coaches in the world, in the best places, best nutrition, he doesn't have to work, or study. He has a good mindset (not necessarily warrior mindset, but he's very serious), and he avoids fatal injuries over the years (he might get injured sometimes, but never more than a few months of stoppage, and not often).

What do you think in those conditions the average man can run a 10k at the peak of his career ?

My personal guess is around 37 minutes.

I agree. 37 is about right. It is around the 70th percentile for 30 year olds. Any faster, he would have to be non- average physically. Your description of training vigilance or dedication already spells "above average" in training.., so 70th percentile could be reachable.

After 10 or 12 years training under the exact specified parameters I think the median guy would be 33-34 mins. That consistent training would really stack up after years even if you had lackluster talent.

If you couldn't break 35 after that long you probably have really unfavorable genetics and body type

I 'aint anything but average!

imarussianasset wrote:

After 10 or 12 years training under the exact specified parameters I think the median guy would be 33-34 mins. That consistent training would really stack up after years even if you had lackluster talent.

If you couldn't break 35 after that long you probably have really unfavorable genetics and body type

The 10 or 12 years, including not reading a book, wouldn't make much difference as there won't be much improvement past the early 20s.

Just because distance running is an endurance sport doesn't mean it doesn't take talent. I could have not read, trained for 12 years and still have been lapped 3 times by Bekele, I could have also practiced baseball 3 hours a day, starting at age 10, and not have made my HS baseball team.

I don't understand how someone who competed in competitive running in school, was around athletes from other sports and can identify crappy running form, can believe the average guy could run 35 or so.

After thinking about it, I am revising my estimate to 50 minutes.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

The 10 or 12 years, including not reading a book, wouldn't make much difference as there won't be much improvement past the early 20s.

Rupp ran his 10k PB at age 28, almost 50 seconds faster than his collegiate PB. Most runners stop improving after early 20s because they don't optimize their training.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

The average middle school boy can run 8:00. I ended up running 10K at a pace about 30 seconds faster than my middle school mile so I would guess 45 minutes.

You are underestimating.

I consider myself very average. I did no sport until 27, casually ran for 2 years at 10 miles per week, then started more over the past year with 30 mpw for 7 months with the past 3 months at 40-45 mpw and I have been steadily improving. I am currently at 21:20 5k and 45:30 10k (not even a full race effort) trying the past two months to do one workout per week and a tempo run. I could train more and still improve and I am not talented at all.

Someone getting into sport at 14, with high training willd probably end up under 40 with average talent. I read someone who stated than at 30, most people could run 42. At peak age like 25 with a lot of experience, it's probably under 40.

You guys simply don't come into close contact with enough runners that are slow. The vast majority of these participants in races is running 10-15 miles per week tops. Even for the marathon. It's crazy but true. When your only goal is to finish you will do the very least amount of training possible. The saddest part is that they usually believe they trained hard. They have no clue.

Just Another Hobby Jogger wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

The 10 or 12 years, including not reading a book, wouldn't make much difference as there won't be much improvement past the early 20s.

Rupp ran his 10k PB at age 28, almost 50 seconds faster than his collegiate PB. Most runners stop improving after early 20s because they don't optimize their training.

50 seconds isn't much for your average runner trying to run 35 minutes.

My son was at a Little League opening day ceremony and rather than listen to boring speeches, I walked across a field to watch a HS invitational track invitational for awhile. There was a 1600 where there were 5 kids over 7 minutes, The nearest to 8 looked like a football player, but the others were normal weight. Although I didn't have a chance to ask if they did any reading, they must have been doing at least a little bit of traininng. Does anyone really believe they could later improve their mile pace by over a minute and hold that pace for 6 times the distance.

Anyone can run 36 mins. Without all that.

Yes. I've done so. I'm not fast but when I started I was racing 5k at over 9 minutes a mile, had I raced the mile I would not have broken 8. My parents also come from countries with 0 pedigree in distance running so I don't have the genetics probably. I really believe I don't have much talent. It's about putting in the work and training as well as you can.

ShilohDoesntCare wrote:

You guys simply don't come into close contact with enough runners that are slow. The vast majority of these participants in races is running 10-15 miles per week tops. Even for the marathon. It's crazy but true. When your only goal is to finish you will do the very least amount of training possible. The saddest part is that they usually believe they trained hard. They have no clue.

All these people would be way faster if they trained more, which is the premise of the question.

37 mins is not 70th percentile. It’s a 70% age grade, which is not the same.

37 mins is just shy of 99th percentile.

Honestly, I’d be shocked if the average was even 50 mins.

Free_the_thigh wrote:

RyecorDone wrote:

I agree. 37 is about right. It is around the 70th percentile for 30 year olds. Any faster, he would have to be non- average physically. Your description of training vigilance or dedication already spells "above average" in training.., so 70th percentile could be reachable.

37 mins is not 70th percentile. It’s a 70% age grade, which is not the same.

37 mins is just shy of 99th percentile.

Honestly, I’d be shocked if the average was even 50 mins.

Because we are saying trained optimally. Why can’t the average person run 60-80 miles per week without breaking down? What evidence do you have to support that the rest of the world is more injury prone?

Why wouldn’t there be improvement past 20s? Most people (even us here on LR) can probably improve until much later than that. We simply start working and marching toward real lives.

If EVERYONE trained, starting at age 14, and built up to 10 miles per day by age 17, there is no way that with an optimal training schedule the average person couldn’t run 6 min pace.

I think you all’s statements like “look at all the fat kids, the kids with bad form” etc show how limited your view of this proposition is.

If everyone trained optimally, form would be better, weight would be optimal, etc

The 'average' guy could never have the dedication and nor could he avoid regular injuries. Those things require above average genetics to begin with.

Maybe they are looking at themselves and are discouraged that they aren't as fast as they think they look. Coach JS will be here any moment now to coach Aztec to big personal bests.

Knew a guy who had his DNA tested and they had him as 50% fast-twitch / 50% slow-twitch (but based on his genes not actual muscle biopsy), That's pretty average.

He trains very hard on the speed side but never seen him do decent aerobic development and his Easy pace is naturally just under 8min/mile. His best 1/2M is 1hr25 and he's scraped a sub-3 marathon. Think his best 5K and 10K times are around 19mins and 38mins respectively.

Those are the sort of numbers I see in a lot of guys who don't do much decent aerobic training.

I ran 14 minutes on 45mpw. Any more than that and I always get injured. Even now, doing 30

MPW at 7:30 pace, I can't increase mileage without getting injured. Very few people can.