What do you think is the fastest an average man can go on 10k if trained optimally (hypothetical) ?

Starno wrote:

Imagine we take an average man without any genetically superior attribute (let's assume we know it). A pure average Joe.

And the guy starts to train at 14 yo, for years, with the best coaches in the world, in the best places, best nutrition, he doesn't have to work, or study. He has a good mindset (not necessarily warrior mindset, but he's very serious), and he avoids fatal injuries over the years (he might get injured sometimes, but never more than a few months of stoppage, and not often).

What do you think in those conditions the average man can run a 10k at the peak of his career ?

My personal guess is around 37 minutes.

If those are the parameters, essentially you’re saying everyone reaches their max ability.

I can imagine many able-bodied men not being able to click off 6 min pace in those conditions.

And I also if we’re talking average and no median, there would be more people running 33 minutes than 39 minutes as their max and the average would be skewed.

You’d have much more downside skew the average would likely be 34 minutes and the bottom 10% would be 40 min 10k.

This is only including able-bodied men.

Can’t imagine*

45 minutes would be the average able bodied guy.

probably around 36min

41 minutes

37 sounds about what I would predict, for a median.

Half of able-bodied men not able to run faster than 37 with every advantage in the world sounds about realistic.

Does he have the average weight? Because I thought the average American man was overweight?

Starno wrote:

and he avoids fatal injuries over the years

Like anvils falling out of the sky? I don’t think I’ve ever had to worry about avoiding fatal injuries when considering my training.

I’d say more like 33 minutes as the median. Your hypothetical has eliminated dozens if not hundreds of obstacles that get in the way of a runner’s performance.

The average middle school boy can run 8:00. I ended up running 10K at a pace about 30 seconds faster than my middle school mile so I would guess 45 minutes.

37-40 min for men, 43-47 min for women.

Truly average, like 50th percentile, I'll say 42 minutes.

We're all much more talented than we think we are. Most of us that get into running are well above average so it warps our sense of what's normal. The average person is actually much less talented than we'd like to think.

43 minutes - male

51 minutes- female

could be........ wrote:

43 minutes - male

51 minutes- female

You really think that if people trained starting from age 14, and beginning at age 17, they averaged 80 miles per week with workout 2-3 per week the average male would run 43 min?

Y’all are overstating your own talent. It takes 0 talent to run a 6 min mile.

Pretty dismal view of the general population. Again we're talking about someone that isn't morbidly obese. When I started running I was obese myself and it didn't take very long for me to be able to run under 40. Plus this hypothetical person has a whole decade of training ahead of me when I initially started. 35 for men is the slowest I'd accept.

OBE wrote:

could be........ wrote:

43 minutes - male

51 minutes- female

You really think that if people trained starting from age 14, and beginning at age 17, they averaged 80 miles per week with workout 2-3 per week the average male would run 43 min?

Y’all are overstating your own talent. It takes 0 talent to run a 6 min mile.

The average person cannot run 80mpw without breaking down.

37 minutes? That seems pessimistic. A healthy male with, say, 10 years of dedicated training and a strong mindset should be able to comfortably run sub-35. That's quick but nothing to write home about

No way it's under 50 minutes. Not a chance on Earth. Median may even being able to simply run 10k without stopping.

It's like you guys have never looked past the top few hundred people in a massive, thousands-of-runners events..

Those are people that actually want to get out and run, and they can't even fathom 7 minute miles.

Go look at your typical middle or high school gym class.

I don’t understand these threads. No one can identify what average is. Without that, the term has no meaning.

runderun wrote:

37 minutes? That seems pessimistic. A healthy male with, say, 10 years of dedicated training and a strong mindset should be able to comfortably run sub-35. That's quick but nothing to write home about

No body wants to do that, bro.

Like, <.1%. There's an entire world outside of sports, especially outside of running. Hope you guys discover it someday.