Trials Question of the Day #2: Which Man Has the Best Shot to Make the Team (Other Than Galen Rupp)?

BERNARD LAGAT is the real life Clubber Lang. My prediction? PAIN.

LAGAT will make the team. He's a winner no matter the distance.

This.

There are four proven winners in the field (i.e.. "champions")

Rupp, Walmsley, Korir, Lagat

Ward if someone has an off day as he did in 2016 placing third after the first two proven winners.

kw1954 wrote:

This.

There are four proven winners in the field (i.e.. "champions")

Rupp, Walmsley, Korir, Lagat

Ward if someone has an off day as he did in 2016 placing third after the first two proven winners.

I can't take you seriously if you put Walmsley in there for top 4. If he's a contender then what are the other Americans that dusted him at Arizona Rock n Roll last month or at Houston last year in half marathons? A road half marathon is closer to a road marathon than a trail ultra is to a road marathon.

did you listen to the pod? he said he didn't race Arizona Half did it as a threshold workout. If Walmsley runs 2:10 he's in.

Obviously Korir wrote:

kw1954 wrote:

This.

There are four proven winners in the field (i.e.. "champions")

Rupp, Walmsley, Korir, Lagat

Ward if someone has an off day as he did in 2016 placing third after the first two proven winners.

I can't take you seriously if you put Walmsley in there for top 4. If he's a contender then what are the other Americans that dusted him at Arizona Rock n Roll last month or at Houston last year in half marathons? A road half marathon is closer to a road marathon than a trail ultra is to a road marathon.

I predict:

Rupp

Korir

Bumbalough

Actually:

Rupp

Korir

Riley

Agreed.

I have never believed a half marathon is a good predictor of marathon performance.

Some great runners have smoked the half marathon but never figured out the marathon.

Others who have raced a fast half automatically have false confidence that they can double it, add 5-6 minutes and bingo! that's what I'll run a a marathon!

As stated, Walmsley used his 64, 63 as a tempo run, nothing more, nothing less.

His training volume suggests (and only suggests) that he can handle back-to-back 65's if he runs smart.

I concur, if he runs 2:10, he's probably in.

Plus, he knows how to win.

That's why he's in my top 4.

Yesterday, Kara Goucher dropped a podcast through Clean Sport Collective with Jared Ward on as the guest and he shared what he thought his percentages of making the team are. Being a stats professor, I'd take his prediction somewhat serious, regardless of the self-bias that may exist.

He said he thinks he has a 70% chance of making top 3.

I believe he mentioned that he thought he had a 30-35% chance of making the team in 2016. Sounds like he isn't relying on as much luck and variable to break his way to make the team this time around.

Everything that Jon mentioned in the article, Jared shared the same sentiment as to why he feels confident. Plus he mentioned that his training is good very well, perhaps is best marathon training cycle ever. He seems to be an open book and I don't know if he could lie to save his life.

So I picked Ward. I recognize my fallacy of having more information about him and having that information being the most recent, but it's very compelling information. Can't wait to see the results.

kw1954 wrote:

Agreed.

I have never believed a half marathon is a good predictor of marathon performance.

Some great runners have smoked the half marathon but never figured out the marathon.

Others who have raced a fast half automatically have false confidence that they can double it, add 5-6 minutes and bingo! that's what I'll run a a marathon!

As stated, Walmsley used his 64, 63 as a tempo run, nothing more, nothing less.

His training volume suggests (and only suggests) that he can handle back-to-back 65's if he runs smart.

I concur, if he runs 2:10, he's probably in.

Plus, he knows how to win.

That's why he's in my top 4.

B.S. that his 64 flat qualifier was a 'tempo run'... He was going all out trying to hit a qualifier, he barely got it. I was there and saw the strain on his face and stride, there was nothing casual about it. I wasn't at Arizona, but I imagine that was also a real tester and he was trying to run fast for half marathon, not a 'tempo'.

This. And as the previous poster stated, a road half is closer to a road full than a trail ultra, but Walmsley also threw down 50 miles on the road last year at 5:48 pace. Nobody really knows how to translate that one to the marathon distance, but he split a 2:30 marathon en route to a 50 mile WB. I guarantee you not one of the guys running the trials would be surprised to see Walmsley go Top 5.

Ward

Fauble

McMillan

Rupp doesn't make the team.

Too many short term memories on here. Jared Ward is going to make the team

bluecolla wrote:

This. And as the previous poster stated, a road half is closer to a road full than a trail ultra, but Walmsley also threw down 50 miles on the road last year at 5:48 pace. Nobody really knows how to translate that one to the marathon distance, but he split a 2:30 marathon en route to a 50 mile WB. I guarantee you not one of the guys running the trials would be surprised to see Walmsley go Top 5.

Think of some fast normal event people that have run 5k/10k/half marathon/marathon... Each of these distances pretty much double.

Korir is a 13:15 guy, 4:16 per mile. He also has a 27:20 10k, or 4:24 per mile. Also a 59:52 half marathon on roads, 4:34 per mile. Then he has a 2:07:52 marathon (only one he ever ran) 4:53 per mile. So he has to slow down 8 seconds per mile to double his 5k, then slows down 10 seconds per mile to double his 10k, then slows down 19 seconds per mile from half marathon to his only marathon attempt. Let's double that gap and say he slows down 38 seconds to do less than double a marathon which I think he could probably slow down less than that, that puts Korir at 5:30 per mile realistically for 50 mile road race if he cared to try it.

You can't use Walmsley's winning ultra results as evidence he can beat the best marathoners, because none of the best marathon runners even attempt the ultras, because why would they?

Bernard Lagat is taking this very seriously and is going for it.

I wouldn't count him out with all his experience and age-less talent.

wejo wrote:

Today's question is now up and Jon and Robert and I have chimed in: "Assuming Galen Rupp is a lock, who has the next-best chance to make the Olympic team: Leonard Korir, Scott Fauble, or Jared Ward?"

Jon went with Ward and Robert and I went with Korir.

Someone give me the data so I can pick Fauble.

Article here:

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2020/02/olympic-marathon-trials-question-of-day-which-man-has-the-best-shot-to-make-the-team-other-than-galen-rupp/

Rupp has the best chance to win the Trials, but some injury uncertainty might make Ward a slightly better choice to be in the top three -- those are not the same thing.

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM wrote:

If Walmsley runs 2:10 he's in.

But he won't run a 2:10, even under the best circumstances. A 2:10 in Atlanta would be a flat 2:08ish. And most people think Jim is able to run a 2:12-14ish in a first FLAT race, not in Atlanta.

3 favorites have to be

Rupp, Korir and Ward and here is why.

Rupp has been really good in past and PRs matter. Even if he doesn’t pick right back up where he left off he is so much faster than the next group of challengers. Injury on race day is only thing keeping him from going.

Korir- Times matter look his up. Should be considered the favorite with Rupps fitness in question.

Ward- While not in the same league as 2:07 and below guys yet he is the next best guy based on resume alone. He is competitive at championships. Unless I’m missing some big injury he has had recently he is a favorite. After that probably another 5 that realistically can finish top 3 having good day. After that you have a lot of guys looking to make a name and have a big day. Anything can happen on race day but those 3 have to be considered the favorites.

What's the latest on Ritz? And don't just say he's old. Is he running? Anybody know?

Fit. Yes.