Anyone care to try and predict a realistic goal pace for my upcoming marathon? I was planning on aiming for sub 2:50 (6:29 pace), but after my tune up races have been a little 'off', I'm having second thoughts...
Training with pfitz 70/18 plan, reduced down to 15 weeks. Average mileage 62 over past 12 weeks, race 3 weeks away.
Tune up races of 1:21:57 Half (4 day taper before race), 37:19 10k (3 day taper before race).
Ultimate PB's from circa March 2017 - 1:19:45 Half, 36:25 10k, 17:58 5k.
Long runs of 20+ on 5 occasions, include 1x21 and 1x22. Several others over 18 miles. All done with only water and no gels or sports drinks; all run as progressions finishing sub 7:00 pace as pfitz suggests. These felt easy; the 22 miler was no problem at all.
3x runs including 'marathon pace' segments; 18 miles each in total, with MP sections of 8, 10, 12 miles (i.e. first 6 gradually picking up the pace, then final 12 at marathon pace) - at 6:29 on each occasion (but this felt quick, and in all honesty, I'm not convinced I could hold it for 26.2)
Tempo runs of 4 miles, 4 miles, 5 miles, 5 miles, 6 miles and 7 miles. The 7 miler was most recent, and the best pace I could hold was 6:10.
Any help would be greatly appreciated... I was planning on shooting for 6:29 pace as I say, but I'm just conscious that I might be overreaching, especially considering it's my first marathon.