OFFICIAL MARATHON TRIALS THREAD: who makes the team

Men

Meb is too consistent to not make the team.

Puskedra has shown both the talent and a more recent understanding of the distance.

Ward is solid.

Estrada is untested at the marathon but his half marathon is impressive.

Ritz might be hobbled. I say he is the weak link amongst the general favorites.

Rupp is the favorite if he runs.

If Rupp runs, I'll go Rupp, Meb, Puskedra, Ward, Estrada

If Rupp doesn't run, I'll go Meb, Puskedra, Ward, Estrada

Women

Shalane and Desi.

Amy Hastings, Kara, Sara Hall, Serena Burla, Deena, one or two others fight for the 3rd spot. I'll go with Amy.

Both races are toss ups.

One or two newbies could make the team in both races.

It's possible but unlikely that Rupp and/or Derrick would make the team.

J.R. wrote:

Both races are toss ups.

One or two newbies could make the team in both races.

It's possible but unlikely that Rupp and/or Derrick would make the team.

Newbies meaning first time Olympians? I agree. First time marathoners? No way.

I want Rupp to run so that the ignorant will be exposed.

I'd say your best chances are:

Rupp, Meb, Estrada, Chalenga, Puskedra, Ritz, and potentially Chris Derrick

I'd say Rupp, Ritz, Estrada, Meb (gets in with no rupp)

The one thing I know wrote:

J.R. wrote:

Both races are toss ups.

One or two newbies could make the team in both races.

It's possible but unlikely that Rupp and/or Derrick would make the team.

Newbies meaning first time Olympians? I agree. First time marathoners? No way.

I want Rupp to run so that the ignorant will be exposed.

I agree a debut is arisk, but think of Kara and her NYC debut? They can go well. Sure there are those who flop (mo, london; Sara Hall, LA) and those who are coached to a slow debut to build off of (pretty much everyone w the Hansons)

Is nor likely but certainly feasible.

Yeah, and Shalane was second in NYC, and ahead of Mary Keitany, in her marathon debut

Sara Hall? Might as well post all the women on the start list if you think Hall has a shot.

Where she ran 2:28:40, which won't be a fast enough time to make the team. Nobody would suggest that someone in his or her debut cannot run fast, especially in a race where there are rabbits. But in a trials race where tactics are at a premium, especially on the men's side where there are more contenders, it's not as likely that one will be successful. Of all races, experience matters most in a marathon: it's very easy to get many things wrong.

Is So Awesome wrote:

Yeah, and Shalane was second in NYC, and ahead of Mary Keitany, in her marathon debut

Allowing people to qualify with half marathons is ridiculous.

All they are doing is filling the trials field with people who won't finish.

There is no half marathon standard for the marathon on the IAAF site.

Thus those with being allowed in the trials with such marks are superfluous,

and the half marathon standard should be done away with for future events.

Furthermore, anyone serious about the marathon would certainly have tried to qualify by running one, and I give much more credence to those who have done so.

I too would prefer that the only qualifying mark that should count is the distance being contended. That said, I'm afraid the barn door is already open. On the men's side, I discount Estrada from the half group--for a variety of reasons he's very inconsistent. On the other hand, he is very talented and does have a very good coach. But I don't see him making it. On the women's side, the only half qualifier I can see in the running is Neely Spence Gracey--right pedigree, fast half, finally healthy and has been for awhile now, is clutch when it counts, tough girl, has her father from whom to draw in understanding the race, and has a good coach.

J.R. wrote:

There is no half marathon standard for the marathon on the IAAF site.

Thus those with being allowed in the trials with such marks are superfluous,

and the half marathon standard should be done away with for future events.

Furthermore, anyone serious about the marathon would certainly have tried to qualify by running one, and I give much more credence to those who have done so.

Meb is excited and fit

Abdi is focused primarily on the OT's. Do not count him out

The story will be Puskedra making the team after quitting running . He had no coach, sponsor, anything for quite a while. the media would play that up, and they should. He is quite the talent.

Rupp (not counting on him running), Ritz, Meb, Puskedra, Ward

Wild Card: Hall - you can never count him out regardless of past performances.

If Ritz was healthy, I'd give him the win sans Rupp, but it's not looking good for him.

Shalane, Desi, are practically a lock.

Annie Bersagel for the third spot? She seems consistent and is a smart runner.

OR

Lauren Kleppin could be a good bet for 3rd. If she is fit and races like she did in LA. Since she's young I don't doubt she has room for big improvement especially since she's training with a new team.

Hastings is inconsistent and she'll probably fry herself training with Shalane. Kara will blow up around mile 22. Burla hasn't run fast since 2013. Deena looked good in Chicago, but... Sara Hall, probably not. Neely hasn't declared, but still wouldn't giver her the nod in a debut.

The interesting thing about the LA course is that there are many loops and corners which give opportunities to see where the competition is and how they are looking. Maybe this plays into the hands of the more experienced marathoners?

Agree that Rupp probably won't run. Is LA even Rupp certified? He'll debut at NYC, Chicago, or London. The former for the prestige and money and that's where is coach ran his debut; the latter two for fast times and of course for the money. It's all about the money anymore, and they'll do ANYTHING to get it if you get the point.

So, this is a year of the wildcard. The consensus favorites are Meb, Puskedra, Ritz, Estrada, and Ward are all good guess if they are healthy. SWAGging here, but I think that no more than one from this group actually finishes in the top 3. And who says someone running a debut can't make the team. There will be surprises in LA.

Women is less wide open and I think it'll be Flannagan, Desi, and Amy Cragg with the old timers Kastor and Goucher in the top 6.

Can't believe nobody has mentioned Kibet yet on the men's side. Definitely deserves to be in the conversation.

I'd also put money on chelanga at the current odds

If Rupp ran the trials, I wouldn't be more surprised if I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet.

Jared Ward

Tyler Pennell

Bobby Curtis

In that order.

survey says wrote:

Your mom.

She is 79 years old, so I think that´s highly unlikely.

Can't believe nobody has mentioned Kibet yet on the men's side. Definitely deserves to be in the conversation.

I'd also put money on chelanga at the current odds[/quote]

Please tell me that KIBET is not the guy who was leading Chicago again and again thru first 20 miles? If it is, I think you got something here. If he runs smart this time and his training is on he will be there. Geez Meb, Chelenga, Luke and Ward and a ton of other animals. They can't let some of these guys be there in the end, off of some slow paced marathon. I think I'm goin to L.A..