Why?? wrote:
Nike money wrote:If he makes his debut at the Trials he has a chance of winning his debut marathon. If he does NYC, Boston, etc. it's highly unlikely he'll teake the win. The bonus that Nike would give him for winning the Trials is probably equal to or more than whatever debut bonus a major marathon would offer him.
So he could:
a) Roll the dice and "maybe" win the marathon trials to get a $200k bonus from Nike?
or
b) Take a guaranteed $200k from NYC
Is that what you're saying? That he'll gamble that money on the possibility of winning he trials?
Or, you know, he might WANT to do the Trials Marathon for some non-monetary reason, like it is the race that he has been aiming for for his entire career. He said soon after he decided not to run the 2012 Trials that he did want to run it. Here he is four years later, which means he is four years closer to the end of his career. He is going to run it eventually, why not take at least one stab at it while he is at his peak?
Also, I think people are largely overvaluing the whole "debut appearance fee" thing. You really don't think he could:
A) Get Nike to incentivize him to run the Trials? Imagine the marketing ability for Nike when the Olympics come around being able to push the 10,000m/26.2 double.
B) Get a monster payday from a WMM after being the US champ and top contender from the Olympics?
Both seem like likely scenarios to me.