Seems like very good pacing from both ~.6s positive splits. I can see why Grijalva and Quax were so confident in predicting Colin would make the Olympic team this year. Hocker and Nuguse are 1:46 guys. Kessler has run 1:45.8. Colin has a pretty bad lack of experience, but he is kinda on a tear. If he wins NCAAs and makes the final, I think he makes the team. Crazy to think last year he didn't even make NCAAs. Also crazy to think how weak we were last Olympics. Hocker was WAY better than everyone except Centro, and Centro didn't even make the final. Now if a college kid wants to make the team, they have to beat Nuguse (3:43/3000i world silver), Hocker (3:30/1500i world silver), and Kessler (3:48/road mile world champ/1500i world bronze).
I knew Nico had more in him after his last 800, but it's great to see him get way down into the 1:47s after being at 1:48.00. Put this and 26:52 into and it predicts a 3:48 mile from it. Suspiciously close to the 3:48 altitude conversion from earlier this year. Really makes you think, doesn't it? Also spits out a 12:48 5k and 7:59 2-mile. Hopefully his next race is a 1500 or mile. It'd be legendary if he and Colin both broke the NCAA record in the same race. And 1:47 can't be much slower than what the best 10k guys in the world can run, right?
I just checked, and since the start of 2022, no one has run a faster 800 and 10k than Nico. Pretty short list though, only like 10 names ahead of Nico in the 10k. Almgren has a 1:45 pb (he has absurd range btw), but Nico outkicked him at the 10. I know Rupp/Farah/Fisher never ran an 800 that fast. I know we're still months away from the trials, but is it crazy to talk about a medal? Grijalva hasn't done the stuff Nico is doing right now.
Whoa - that's a fast time for Colin. 5th fastest American this year after Whitmarsh, Hoppel, Murphy and Hoey.
Is it crazy to think that he actually has a better chance of making the team in the 800, given how loaded the 1500 is and the 800 men is pretty weak right now?
These results are eye opening . Just as impressive as the time for Sahlman, is the fact that he destroyed the dominant NCAA Indoor winner.
I guess the more I think about I shouldn't be stunned by these results, but they were a real pleasant surprise to see when I couldn't sleep and got up at 6:30 on a Sunday.
I mean top World class milers have insane range. Centro was a 1:44 guy who ran 13:00. Nuguse and Hocker both are 1:45.3 guys who have run 13:0X. Hobbs Kessler has run 1:45.8 and he ran 8:39 for 2miles indoors in HS.
Everyone acts like Jakob has no speed. The reality is he ran 1:46.44 when he was 19 - basically 9 months younger than what Sahlman is right now and he's go the endurance to be totally dominant at 5000.
Nathan Green ran 1:46 indoors this year. I could go on and on.
But I may be even more pumped for Nico. I mean one of the more famous Letsrun threads was this one descibing how a a 1st year pro Galen Rupp - after his dominant NCAA finish i 2009 - lost to a freshman walk-on from New Mexico:
Whoa - that's a fast time for Colin. 5th fastest American this year after Whitmarsh, Hoppel, Murphy and Hoey.
Is it crazy to think that he actually has a better chance of making the team in the 800, given how loaded the 1500 is and the 800 men is pretty weak right now?
Also crazy to think how weak we were last Olympics. Hocker was WAY better than everyone except Centro, and Centro didn't even make the final. Now if a college kid wants to make the team, they have to beat Nuguse (3:43/3000i world silver), Hocker (3:30/1500i world silver), and Kessler (3:48/road mile world champ/1500i world bronze).
What? How weak were last Olympics? No. No. No.
Last time, if you wanted to make the Olympics for the 1500 in 2021 you had to beat Hocker - who at 20 and 2 months (4 months younger than Sahlman is right now) got 6th in Tokyo and ran 3:31.
You had to beat the reigning Olympic champion Centro who was so confident in his fitness that he took a crack at the American record in the mile before going to Tokyo and ran 3:49.
And you had to beat a star NCAA runner in Nuguse who was so fit he solo'd the Olympic standard by himself in the prelims of his conference meet. Two years later that same guy would run 3:43 in the mile.
Hocker was not WAY better than Nuguse in 2021. Here is the final 100 from NCAAs. Looks pretty competitive to me:
Competing on his home track in Eugene, Oregon Track and Field's Cole Hocker claimed the 1,500 meters title by running a 3:35.35 at the 2021 Outdoor Track and...
And let's don't act like the 4th guy at the 2021 Trials was some terrible runner. IT was Craig Engels. His 800 pb is 1:44.68 - way faster than what Sahlman's run - and his 1500 pb was 3:33.64 - also faster than what's Sahlman has run. And he ran that 3:33 in 2021.
It was a damn hard team to make in 2021 and will be so in 2024. This year we just have more depth after the top 3.
Hocker, Nuguse, Kessler, Sahlman, 3 UW guys, Engels, Centro, etc.
In 2021 Hocker ran 1:46.3 and 13:18 in his NCAA season, then ran a 3:35 race at NCAAs with a 1:48.8 last 800m. So far Colin has run 1:45.6 and 13:38 with a 3:33.9 race at Bryan Clay. Just off that they seem to be pretty similar (Colin has a bit more anaerobic ability while Cole has more strength). Colin will have the disadvantage as the US 1500m is much stronger now than it was in 2021. Tactics is another question, as Hocker turned out to be quite good there while we still aren't too sure about Colin. Ultimately I would probably place him with a guy like Cooper Teare, that could make the team if one of the big three of Nuguse, Hocker, or Kessler falter at trials, but obviously that could change at NCAAs
This post was edited 43 seconds after it was posted.
I am so curious as to what they are doing in training to produce such phenomenal results. Especially Nico. That range of 1:47 to 26:53 weeks apart is just incredible.
In 2021 Hocker ran 1:46.3 and 13:18 in his NCAA season, then ran a 3:35 race at NCAAs with a 1:48.8 last 800m. So far Colin has run 1:45.6 and 13:38 with a 3:33.9 race at Bryan Clay. Just off that they seem to be pretty similar (Colin has a bit more anaerobic ability while Cole has more strength).
How are you quantifying strength? Bench press? Dead lift? How many reps?
Imagine being Eric Holt. You are running well, doing everything right, feeling on top, but aware that at 28 this is your last shot to make an Olympic team. Then you look out and see Nuguse (24), Kessler (21), Hocker (24), the UW guys, and now Sahlman (20).
This can’t be right. I read on here that Mike Smith failed Nico Young and that his mile altitude conversion was totally wrong. It is almost like the experts here that are so sure of themselves have no idea what they are talking about.
I think it’s safe to say that sahlaman would be favored to make that team over Kessler right now
What makes you say that? They both have extremely similar PRs except Kessler's very slightly faster for the 1500/Mile. Colin most likely has the better kick but Kessler has more experience, I'd say they are very even at the moment.
The trials are gonna be fast as hell. I seriously doubt Yared or Kessler are gonna let it go tactical when there's guys like Hocker, Sahlman, the UWers, and an army of other ~3:34 Americans ready to swoop in for the win. Sad to say it but I think Centro and Engels have 0 chance of making the team at this point
Imagine being Eric Holt. You are running well, doing everything right, feeling on top, but aware that at 28 this is your last shot to make an Olympic team. Then you look out and see Nuguse (24), Kessler (21), Hocker (24), the UW guys, and now Sahlman (20).
Seems like very good pacing from both ~.6s positive splits. I can see why Grijalva and Quax were so confident in predicting Colin would make the Olympic team this year. Hocker and Nuguse are 1:46 guys. Kessler has run 1:45.8. Colin has a pretty bad lack of experience, but he is kinda on a tear. If he wins NCAAs and makes the final, I think he makes the team. Crazy to think last year he didn't even make NCAAs. Also crazy to think how weak we were last Olympics. Hocker was WAY better than everyone except Centro, and Centro didn't even make the final. Now if a college kid wants to make the team, they have to beat Nuguse (3:43/3000i world silver), Hocker (3:30/1500i world silver), and Kessler (3:48/road mile world champ/1500i world bronze).
I knew Nico had more in him after his last 800, but it's great to see him get way down into the 1:47s after being at 1:48.00. Put this and 26:52 into and it predicts a 3:48 mile from it. Suspiciously close to the 3:48 altitude conversion from earlier this year. Really makes you think, doesn't it? Also spits out a 12:48 5k and 7:59 2-mile. Hopefully his next race is a 1500 or mile. It'd be legendary if he and Colin both broke the NCAA record in the same race. And 1:47 can't be much slower than what the best 10k guys in the world can run, right?
I just checked, and since the start of 2022, no one has run a faster 800 and 10k than Nico. Pretty short list though, only like 10 names ahead of Nico in the 10k. Almgren has a 1:45 pb (he has absurd range btw), but Nico outkicked him at the 10. I know Rupp/Farah/Fisher never ran an 800 that fast. I know we're still months away from the trials, but is it crazy to talk about a medal? Grijalva hasn't done the stuff Nico is doing right now.
The TEN was almost perfect. There will be more than 3 East Africans who’ll have 5000 PRs under 12:45 or 1000 under 26:30
Imagine being Eric Holt. You are running well, doing everything right, feeling on top, but aware that at 28 this is your last shot to make an Olympic team. Then you look out and see Nuguse (24), Kessler (21), Hocker (24), the UW guys, and now Sahlman (20).
Hocker is only 22 but Teare is 24.
Completely forgot about Teare too. This team is gonna be so difficult to make. Absolutely harder than 2021.
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