Book it now: Ryan Vail will be 2016 US Olympic marathoner - 2:10 pb today - just 2 spots behind Mo Farah in London

How do you count? I see Vail as two spots back. Or do you count Lilesa as zero spots back?

Actually a disappointing performance from Vail. He did nothing to confirm himself as a favorite. I don't think he put any fear in Ritz, a 40-year old Meb, Hall, and even guys like Cabada and Arciniaga, or any of the young up-and-comers.

If Vail would have run 2:10 at NYC or Boston, reminiscent of Brian Sell, then he would have my attention. But 2:10 at London is blah to the elite US marathoning community. It's a strong performance, no doubt, but Vail's ROI in concerning. Can he keep up this training for another 2 years?

As a matter of fact, Meb is looking the most like a sure bet. Here would be my list, but this could change drastically after Boston, which has a large contingent of Americans lining up. And I still think there is an 80% chance that Galen Rupp debuts in LA 2016 -

THE MAN

Dathan Ritzenhein

Meb Keflezighi

Ryan Vail

THE CONTENDERS TO THE THRONE

Fernando Cabada

Nick Arciniaga

Bobby Curtis

Josphat Boit

Christo Landry

DARKHORSES

Ryan Hall

Matt Tegenkamp

count chocula wrote:

How do you count? I see Vail as two spots back. Or do you count Lilesa as zero spots back?

We had our headline wrong initially on the HP. I guess he can blame us. We changed the title of this thread to say 2 spots as it probably was our fault.

Initially this was entitled, "RE: Book it now: Ryan Vail will be 2016 US Olympic marathoner - 2:10 pb today - just 1 spot behind Mo Farah in London"

I'll remind you that F.Shorter ran 2:10:30 in dec.1972; B.Rodgers ran 2:09:55 in apr. 1975. Vail may be a 3rd placer in two years at the trials...

born in the USA wrote:

Awesome race for Vail.

Am I crazy to think he's the #1 choice right now for the 2016 US Olympic team.

Meb will be over 40, Hall is often injured. Who else in the US is better than Vail right now??

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/04/results-2014-london-marathon-results/

Awesome race for Vail.

Am I crazy to think he's the #1 choice right now for the 2016 US Olympic team.

Meb will be over 40, Hall is often injured. Who else in the US is better than Vail right now??

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/04/results-2014-london-marathon-results/

Pos. Name Club Runner no Category Pred. Finish Pred. Daytime Diff Time

1 Kipsang, Wilson (KEN) 2 18-39 - - +00:00 02:04:29

2 Biwott, Stanley (KEN) 8 18-39 - - +00:26 02:04:55

3 Kebede, Tsegaye (ETH) 1 18-39 - - +02:01 02:06:30

4 Abshero, Ayele (ETH) 5 18-39 - - +02:02 02:06:31

5 Mekonnen, Tsegaye (ETH) 6 18-39 - - +03:37 02:08:06

6 Mutai, Geoffrey (KEN) 4 18-39 - - +03:49 02:08:18

7 Mutai, Emmanuel (KEN) 3 18-39 - - +03:50 02:08:19

8 Farah, Mo (GBR) 26 18-39 - - +03:52 02:08:21

9 Lilesa, Feyisa (ETH) 7 18-39 - - +03:57 02:08:26

10 Vail, Ryan (USA) 18 18-39 - - +06:28 02:10:57

11 Thompson, Chris (GBR) 28 18-39 - - +06:50 02:11:19

12 Kiprotich, Stephen (UGA) 11 18-39 - - +07:08 02:11:37

13 Coolsaet, Reid (CAN) 17 18-39 - - +09:11 02:13:40

14 Nimo, Pedro (ESP) 19 18-39 - - +09:46 02:14:15

15 Livesey, Ben (GBR) 29 18-39 - - +13:15 02:17:44

16 Tsegay, Samuel (ERI) 12 18-39 - - +14:41 02:19:10

17 Overall, Scott (GBR) 16 18-39 - - +15:26 02:19:55

18 Hagos, Yared (ETH)

At least Mo got the English record.

#ocl wrote:

As a matter of fact, Meb is looking the most like a sure bet. Here would be my list, but this could change drastically after Boston, which has a large contingent of Americans lining up. And I still think there is an 80% chance that Galen Rupp debuts in LA 2016 -

THE MAN

Dathan Ritzenhein

Meb Keflezighi

Ryan Vail

THE CONTENDERS TO THE THRONE

Fernando Cabada

Nick Arciniaga

Bobby Curtis

Josphat Boit

Christo Landry

DARKHORSES

Ryan Hall

Matt Tegenkamp

I agree that Rupp could run it.

You have a 40 year old Meb making the team? That would be amazing. I guess Lagat is kicking as at 39 but you'd think Father time would win eventually.

You have Hall as a dark horse?

I would put Hall in the top category. Yes the last two years haven't been pretty but he won't be 40.

I would switch Hall and Meb on your list

Ryan Vail is the new Brian Sell.

very diffent guy from sell

Yes, I have Ryan Hall as a darkhorse.

Monday in Boston will inform me more on Ryan's recovery and strength. He is a darkhorse because he just hasn't been able to get healthy - too much risk at this point.

I am not concerned with Meb's age at this point. He just ran a 61-min half marathon, basically blowing everyone away. He is just so strong and efficient at this point.

Can you see Meb running 2:11? I can't... every time out I see a sub-2:10-ish effort.

rojo wrote:

count chocula wrote:

How do you count? I see Vail as two spots back. Or do you count Lilesa as zero spots back?

We had our headline wrong initially on the HP. I guess he can blame us. We changed the title of this thread to say 2 spots as it probably was our fault.

Initially this was entitled, "RE: Book it now: Ryan Vail will be 2016 US Olympic marathoner - 2:10 pb today - just 1 spot behind Mo Farah in London"

Remember running a PB at London is like a 10k PB at Stanford ( fast track ) London is a fast marathon not indicative of how a runner will compete otherwise.

Couple years out to see how things shake out...

fgfg wrote:

very diffent guy from sell

How so? Both hit 150 mpw (Sell a little more). Difference between PRs is about 1 sec. Both had public training logs.

I can see Vail placing 3rd at the 2016 OT like Sell did in 08.

Do you want to know how different Brian Sell is than Ryan Vail?

Ryan Vail is a finesse 27:44 guy with a 2:13 at NYC.

Brian Sell is a baller 28:36 guy with the fastest time ever run by an American in the World Championships (2:13), placing 9th, and ran 2:11 at NYC.

Vail has more upside, but has zero international championship experience on the roads, and Sellbo is a damn legend.

I see your point now. Sell is my favorite runner of all time.

What's Vail's background?

#ocl wrote:

He is a darkhorse because he just hasn't been able to get healthy - too much risk at this point.

And yet you have Dathan and Meb up there

Well, if they both have public training logs, then yes, they are pretty much the same.

Also, to the OP: I think you should have put the seconds in the title of this thread. 2:10 makes me think 2:10 flat. 2:10:57 is a whole different thing. I really think the OP has no brains at all.

Vail is on the up and up. all other top US marathoners are on the downward trend.