Cooked spud wrote:
If you feel the need to add the qualifier "a healthy Meb" you actually agree age is likely to be his undoing.
That's his problem. Getting to the start line healthy is allowing younger guys to out train him.
I guess, but he just did a nice, controlled 26M long run pretty much at his goal marathon pace, so how much more training does he really need to do between now and trials? And which of the young guys are actually going to beat him at trials. That article that someone referenced earlier in this thread has a useful list:
American Men’s sub-2:12 marathons since 1/1/14
Meb Keflezighi: 2:08:37 (Boston 2014)
Luke Puskedra: 2:10:24 (Chicago 2015)
Jeffrey Eggleston: 2:10:52 (Gold Coast 2014)
Ryan Vail: 2:10:57 (London 2014)
Dathan Ritzenhein: 2:11:20 (Boston 2015)
Bobby Curtis: 2:11:20 (Chicago 2014)
Elkanah Kibet: 2:11:31 (Chicago 2015)
Fernando Cabada: 2:11:36 (Berlin 2014)
Nick Arciniaga: 2:11:47 (Boston 2014)
If Ritz is on, he should win, but historically he's been much less consistent than Meb. Of the up and comers, Puskedra seems like the most promising and could also beat Meb if he runs as well as he did in Chicago. 1 of "and the rest" could also have a great day and beat Meb, but none of them have demonstrated consistency at the 2:10 - 2:12 level. And of course Estrada could hit it out of the park in his debut.
Bottom line: I like Meb's chances, but there are no guarantees in marathoning.