After Meb's performance at NYC today, do you think he is more likely to make the US Olympic team? Or less likely?

Will make team, and likely will win. Knows how to rise to the occasion, no matter the circumstances.

Meb will make the team, easily. He is probably the best active US marathoner.

Yea, unchanged.

With the Trials in February, I'm sure Meb went for it today, but at the same time, with the 28:35 finish, didn't go into 'crisis-mode hammer it' late, jeopardizing a reasonable recovery.

road rashed wrote:

Will make team, and likely will win. Knows how to rise to the occasion, no matter the circumstances.

This.

Meb is as strong as Puskedra, Ritz, Ward, but won't beat them if he runs moderately hard at the front, breaking the wind for the first 30k of the race.

ttc wrote:

Yea, unchanged.

With the Trials in February, I'm sure Meb went for it today, but at the same time, with the 28:35 finish, didn't go into 'crisis-mode hammer it' late, jeopardizing a reasonable recovery.

There's no reason to believe Meb didn't run as hard as he could today.

Before today I thought that Meb and Ritz were the clear favorites, and that hasn't changed.

If he makes it to the starting line healthy, I like his chances. He's a competitor.

might be wejo wrote:

There's no reason to believe Meb didn't run as hard as he could today.

Before today I thought that Meb and Ritz were the clear favorites, and that hasn't changed.

So 2:13 - 2:14 is the standard to be considered a clear favorite?

I'm going to say less likely. I still think he will make the team, but I'm moving him out of lock status after today's race.

Again, I think he will make it, but I can now see a scenario in which he just doesn't have the legs in the last couple miles to hold off younger, fresher, hungrier guys.

I think Ritz will win it.

might be wejo wrote:

ttc wrote:

Yea, unchanged.

With the Trials in February, I'm sure Meb went for it today, but at the same time, with the 28:35 finish, didn't go into 'crisis-mode hammer it' late, jeopardizing a reasonable recovery.

There's no reason to believe Meb didn't run as hard as he could today...

Read Letsrun's write up. I just read Meb said his goal was recovery & health for the trials, while erring on the side of caution- exactly what I said.

Oh, I know- Meb is now a liar.

might be a db wrote:

might be wejo wrote:

There's no reason to believe Meb didn't run as hard as he could today.

Before today I thought that Meb and Ritz were the clear favorites, and that hasn't changed.

So 2:13 - 2:14 is the standard to be considered a clear favorite?

In a tactical race on the NY course, yes.

Mr. Keflezighi will make the team and, as was stated, probably will win the trials.

NYC is a difficult, slow course and 2:13 is impressive enough on such a course.

slightly less likely. Before this race, I thought it would be a lock and no one would touch him, with Meb winning easily. Now I'm thinking it will be a lot closer and Meb may even be beaten over the final miles, but I don't see him not being in the top 3. I think Nick Arcinaga (sp?) is a whole lot less likely to make the team after today.

Meb

Puskedra

Ritz

no one else has done anything to suggest they could beat these guys

Makes the team easily.

No one? I wouldn't count out Jared Ward and Tyler Pennel just yet.

All around the times were relatively slow, even for NY (winning time 2:10:34). I figured Meb would be a couple minutes back of the winner, so he's about where I'd expect him relative to the leaders but a bit slower than I would have guessed. Still, he's probably the favorite, though not the overwhelming favorite, to win the trials and the most likely to make the team. The biggest point in his favor is that he rarely has a bad race if he's healthy going in.

He ran 2:13 on a negative split, on a tough course (i have run it twice--it is tough). He also lost to 5 legit guys, and Yuki K is no slouch.... 100%, I\if he starts healthy at the OT race he makes the team,

Meb wins it

Ritz second

Tyler Pennel

Does my status of Meb for the 2012 US Marathon Olympic trials change?

I don't know.

Did Meb run down to Leon or did Leon rise to Meb?

With Nick Arcinaga cratering over the last 8 plus miles, it is even harder to tell. Most people would have put Nick being a slightly better marathoner than Leon and just behind Meb. Nick is definitely in that pack of 12 or so guys vying for the 3rd (2nd and 3rd?) position to go to Rio.

I'd say Meb's stock stayed the same. Craig Leon's stock rose, while Nick's stock dropped. But the marathon is weird; anything could happen in February.