Make your predicitions now, When does Grant Fisher break 4:00 and how close to Webb's 3:53 does he get?

I would, like others already have, say that But... Is right on the money. Read his last sentence again: "his HS career"

Fisher's got, in my mind, about 7 or 8 months to make his mark. After that.... Hard to say if we really hear from him again.

Young Grant, influenced as he is by his parents, has made the mistake of running in the NCAA. Well, he hasn't made it yet, and will be subject to considerable pressure to change his mind unless said parents insulate him from said pressure and influences. However, according to current accounts, he has made such a decision and is already at or past the point at which some youth stars (Cain and Ephraimson of course, but also Hadley and others) definitively decide not to.

Will this necessarily be a disaster of overtraining with folks 5 years older (and possibly even more considering maturation rates and comparitive training history), over racing 7-9 months of the year with dual meets, 3 races every Saturday including meaningless relay legs, less than 100% optimal living and eating situations, etc? No, not necessarily, but remember what Webb decided? He gave it the old 'college try' (pun intended) but ultimately decided it was holding him back. And for anyone who questions Webb's decision, aim your browser at T&FN, click 'records' specifically American Men's Outdoor.

Speaking of Webb, Chris Lear's book about him is an excellent, 200-page discussion of this very topic. Coincidentally, I took it off the shelf day before yesterday and reread the very end, in which El (in his prime) and his coach explain why the NCAA, or actually, participation in it, is a waste of time. Some anonymous LR MB blowhard saying it is one thing. El G himself (and a not quite as credentialed coach, unless guiding El G to the pinnacle of acheivement is in fact the highest possible credential) saying so is something entirely different.

Hey Grant, do what you must, but plenty of your peers and fans will suggest that flushing your considerable talent down the NCAA toilet will be a shame, primarily since you yourself will never know what you were capable of.

Multiple sub 4s this year wrote:

Call me crazy but I think we will see 4 guys break 4 this year. I think Fisher will do it first and others who are close to him will take confidence in that. I expect fisher will break arcadia invitational. And 4 runners will get itst the dream mile with fisher winning.

You're not crazy, you're just an idiot. Four people in one year?? Lol.

He isn't going to break four in high school. Every year some kid is going to break four and it almost never happens.

He might break 4

Lucas, German and Rupp were all much better track runners then Fisher.

4:00.3

Letsrun Brothers,

Now matter how much you drool over Fisher, he does Not get all time status in cross due to the Split events...and the suckage of talent from NXN.

This is not the Ritz or Matt Withrow or Ruben Reina Footlocker it's the watered down version. Like Coke to Coke Zero

He clearly looks to have a shot at 4, but he may not get more than one decent chance at it --unless someone really wants to set up a race for him.

(3:53 talk is a little ridiculous, I'd say.)

I think it's probably more likely he cracks 8:40 for 2.

I'm also starting to think this kid can be a college x-c star right off the bat.

Unless he turns out to be a lot weaker for 10-K than 5-K, watch out.

And I'd tend to guess that won't be the case. His xc performances look just as strong as his mile last year, and I don't see any real-quick 800 times on his resume.

If this guy's reasonably close at 10-K to how he looks at 5-K, Stanford may have 4 in the top 20 at Nats next year. (And possibly a #5 not far behind.)

Don't know if they can beat the Buffs, but they've sure as hell got a shot to make it very interesting.

Did anyone at baby-nats last week prove anything that would lead us to believe they would have an impact on today's race? I guess I could see Anderson leading for a little while after Ostberg heading into the last mile.German and Rupp had slower PRs than Grant through their junior years. They also lost races. Grant doesn't. Sorry bro.

asu guy wrote:

He might break 4

Lucas, German and Rupp were all much better track runners then Fisher.

4:00.3

Letsrun Brothers,

Now matter how much you drool over Fisher, he does Not get all time status in cross due to the Split events...and the suckage of talent from NXN.

This is not the Ritz or Matt Withrow or Ruben Reina Footlocker it's the watered down version. Like Coke to Coke Zero

Definetly NOT the NCAA wrote:

I would, like others already have, say that But... Is right on the money.

Not even close. But… makes some solid points, but c'mon. Burnout? For a kid that runs an average of 7 miles a day? That is the most ludicrous thing I have ever read. Also, saying that sub-4 is too hard because Verzbicas only managed 3:59.71 is ridiculous! But… dedicated an entire paragraph to this point, but failed to mention that it was rainy, windy and TERRIBLY paced. The splits were something unfathomably bad like 57 - 2:02. It is absolutely incredible that Verzbicas broke 4 in that race. The effort was probably worth a 3:57 (or better!).

1) I agree it might be better for him long term not to break 4 as it creaters pressure.

2) As for college, what miler has had the greatest career while running in North American in the last 30 years?

Nick Willis. He ran in college and has stuck with his college coach. Centro wasn't ruined by college. Wheating only ran fast when he was in college.

What awful relays will he be running at Stanford. And what dual meets do they have?

If I had a kid who could get a full ride to Stanford, i'd have him do that versus going pro.Maybe I'd let him go pro if he could make $300,000 per year and still attend Stanford and run with the guys on the team. If he couldn't go to Stanford but was forced to go pro, I'd want him to get $600,000 per year. 2.5 million guaranteed.

College is an amazing development system.

El G was from Morocco. That's all I'm going to say.

rojo wrote:

1) I agree it might be better for him long term not to break 4 as it creaters pressure.

2) As for college, what miler has had the greatest career while running in North American in the last 30 years?

Nick Willis. He ran in college and has stuck with his college coach. Centro wasn't ruined by college. Wheating only ran fast when he was in college.

...

Perhaps you meant to write former NCAA indoor mile champ Bernard Lagat?

My first thought when I saw Fisher run away from the field today was 'sub-4'. But, as someone above has noted, sub -4 is incredibly hard. Realistically, you have to be able to break 1:50, to do it, and, probably faster than that for a kid in hs. Yes, he ran 4:02, but his next fastest is 4:09 and his 1600s aren't much better. He's only run 1:55 for 800. I'd love to see him do it, but after thinking about this a bit harder, I no longer would bet on it.

For him to do it, he'll have to train harder, and, what we don't know, is whether he can withstand that harder training without injury. He'll break 4 his freshman year. But if you want a far out prediction here's mine: His sophomore year, he wins NCAA XC, robbing Cheseerek's bid for a first ever 4-peat.

Burnout is an issue. Now that Fisher has quit soccer, if he starts to train harder than he ever has before, in a sport that is a second love, he might experience burnout. Not likely, but it's an example of what can go wrong.I did omit the details of Verzbicas' race, but it still helps my point. He had the ability for something fast, but only barely broke 4 due to the weather and pacing--things can go wrong and add a great deal to runners' times.I'm more certain Fisher will be an NCAA champ than a sub-4 HS miler. I think both are likely.

162430 wrote:

Definetly NOT the NCAA wrote:

I would, like others already have, say that But... Is right on the money.

Not even close. But… makes some solid points, but c'mon. Burnout? For a kid that runs an average of 7 miles a day? That is the most ludicrous thing I have ever read. Also, saying that sub-4 is too hard because Verzbicas only managed 3:59.71 is ridiculous! But… dedicated an entire paragraph to this point, but failed to mention that it was rainy, windy and TERRIBLY paced. The splits were something unfathomably bad like 57 - 2:02. It is absolutely incredible that Verzbicas broke 4 in that race. The effort was probably worth a 3:57 (or better!).

This happens every year. Remember that Cheserek, Arroyo, Burcham, Montoya, Saarel, and Haney in the last 3 years were all hyped to become the next one under four. Every year some 'supreme talent' comes along and everyone thinks that they'll get it done. Montoya had a better mile PR as a junior than Fisher and everyone thought it was a lock for him to do it. But no. It takes a once in a decade type of talent to actually break it. A lot of guys in the last 10 years have gotten very close, but it takes a Verzbicas All-Timer to do it. You pretty much have to set a bunch of high school distance records now to have a shot. Even then, it's no guarantee. Look at German Fernandez.

And as one poster said above, you have to be willing to lead and go after it. Fisher is much more likely to sit back in the pack and use his superior leg speed to get the W. And you can't blame him for that. He values winning over records and he's a proven winner. I think he has 4 flat talent, but it honestly depends on how the Dream Mile is run. If someone else is willing to rabbit him through 3 laps at 4 flat pace, I would not be shocked if Fisher went and got it done. But that still means that it is unlikely.

In my opinion, Fisher is not an all-timer High School distance runner until he starts breaking some quality records. Whether that be 5k, 10k, whatever.

My all-timer list stands at Ryun, Lindgren, Webb, Verzbicas, Virgin, Hulst, Pre, Fernandez, Cheserek (probably).

The next tier is Nelson, Ritz, Rupp, Liquori, Chapa, Danielson, Hunt.

If Fisher wins the Dream Mile this year in like 4 flat or 4:01, he would end up in that second tier IMHO. But if he can break 4 at the Dream Mile and run like 8:39 at Arcadia, then he has a legitimate claim at the top 10 list. His 2 Foot Locker titles help him a lot in that argument, but then again, he didn't have to beat any top-25 all timers to get his titles. Ie: Ritz beating Webb and Hall.

As for Tamagno, he pretty much has the grade records for freshman and sophomores so he's on the right track, but he seems a lot like Haney.

blargh wrote:

***

In my opinion, Fisher is not an all-timer High School distance runner until he starts breaking some quality records. Whether that be 5k, 10k, whatever.

My all-timer list stands at Ryun, Lindgren, Webb, Verzbicas, Virgin, Hulst, Pre, Fernandez, Cheserek (probably).

The next tier is Nelson, Ritz, Rupp, Liquori, Chapa, Danielson, Hunt.

***

Uh, Rich Kimball?

pregame show wrote:

Uh, Rich Kimball?

Yeah, sure, whatever. Kimball is the second tier. Throw Ryan Hall in there if you want. But that doesn't really take away from my argument right?

75% responding realize Rojo was asking a question about Webb's 3:53 and not predicting that outcome. The other 25%, read before you respond. The 1:55 PR for 800 meters means nothing. Clearly, Fisher is faster than that. The low mileage (7 miles/day...if true) and burnout potential is even worse. We all know it's a sport of incremental increase in training which should equal incremental gains in race time assuming responsible training plan. IMO, he'll train smart, responsibly increase mileage and intensity and the result will be sub 4 during track even with all the other good points (i.e. weather). My initial reaction was 3:58ish consistent with other posts. However, I always trust experienced runners who have actually watched a runner. I haven't seen Fisher race in person, but I sense something special from others and will adjust my prediction to 3:56/3:57. I agree that Webb's 3:53 is way out of reach, particularly considering he will be our best HS miler of all time forever or MANY years to come and his Pre Invite race was the best race strategy I've ever seen from an 18 year old. I like the posts about Fisher going for sub 8:40 as the ultimate goal. He can do it and let's hope Arcadia or other sets up well for him to accomplish that goal. I'd prefer to see that sub 8:40. If accomplished, then we'll know that a NCAA champion by junior year is very realistic.

I agree that Fisher needs to go too Arcadia and run very fast if he wants to be an all time great. But If you think 8:40 is more impressive or superior to 3:56/7, you're taking crazy pills. Arcadia is won in like 8:45/6 on average every year now which is only 5 seconds off 8:40 which would imply a 2-3 second gap in quality between 3:56/7 and what the average time the Dream Mile is won in every year. Which is wrong. 3:56 would be well and above anything near the average top mile high school mile time every year. I'm trying to say that 8:40 is around a 3:59. He's capable of both, but expecting anything better than 3:59 is foolish.

Also as a sidenote, why should he want to go for sub 4? Recent history says that it rarely goes well afterwards for guys who chase/break sub 4. I think it might be smart if he just saved his energy for college and not get burnt out chasing it. Cheserek relaxed for his senior year of track after committing to Oregon and he's done pretty well for himself. Not saying that Fisher shouldn't aim for it, I'm saying that he shouldn't become obsessed with it.

WTF is "throwing down" a 5K? Speak English, not Fratboyish.

Why go for sub 4? Because he can. The original question was how close to Webb's 3:53? I stand by my prediction like all the other posts. As for 8:40 being better, that's not what I said. Just a better goal.

SB6 wrote:

Why go for sub 4? Because he can. The original question was how close to Webb's 3:53? I stand by my prediction like all the other posts. As for 8:40 being better, that's not what I said. Just a better goal.

I say 3:59 is realistic but not likely. I think it's more likely that he runs 8:40.