All smoke no fire wrote:
She ran well in Boston and finished 7th. Why do people think that 7 women from Boston 2014 could run 2:18 in Berlin this year?
Agreed. She ran 2:22 on a net downhill, point-to-point course. And she got destroyed. Clearly it was a very fast day at Boston for those who took it out. (Note: the men sat around but Meb got after it and PR'ed at his old age.) While the Boston course has its challenges and she took it out very hard, even with better pacing and the advantage of rabbits I don't see that adding up to a 4 minute PR. I think those factors might cancel out and her 2:22 was damn close to what she would have run on a flat course.
However, with that race under her belt she will presumably have more to give if all goes well. If she goes out at 2:21 pace I think she has a shot at 2:20.mid-21.low. Any faster (which it probably will be) and she will hang on for another 2:22 at best. She won't pay for a fast early pace as much on a flat course as much as she did at Boston, but she'll have to work harder in that first half.
Down the road I do think she has the talent to run the AR, but she needs a couple under her belt on flat courses where the focus is on time.