Official 2014 BMW Berlin Marathon Prediction Thread

Our women's preview is here:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/09/berlin-womens-preview-shalane-flanagan-chases-deena-kastors

-21936-american-record/

Our men's preview is here:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/09/berlin-mens-preview-can-world-record-go/

8:17 pm ET Rojo: Alright guys and gals, the 2014 BMW Berlin Marathon is about less than 56 hours away. Before I make any final predictions, I’m still waiting for weather.com to get the hourly forecast up for race time but the weather does look to be ideal. Might we see a World Record on the men’s side and an American record of the women’s side?

That’s what people want to know. As a result, it’s time to make our predictions.

I think it’s only fair if we put our new guru Jonathan Gault out on a limb and make him go first. Well I’ll take that back. I’ll go out on a limb and start by saying that I don’t think Shalane Flanagan will win the women’s race.

Why?

Mainly the fact that it’s a safe bet and history. When is the last time an American born runner won a major? (I know Meb won in Boston). It’s been a long time. Was it Deena Kastor’s AR?

On the men’s side, normally I hate hyped world record attempts that don’t materialize but I’m actually very excited for the men’s race. Haile Gebrselassie’s glorified time trials in Berlin did absolutely nothing for me as a fan - and I’m a guy who had HaileG as my first Internet password on AOL shortly after Al Gore invented the Internet. But in addition to the world record attempt, there are a number of guys who could win the race. The fact that it’s a real race excites me.

That being said, fans need to remember that world record attempts normally don’t end up being very exciting to watch (unless the record goes down) as there is very little strategy and normally zero moves. It’s just a war of attrition.

So John, let’s start with you: Who will win the women’s race and will Shalane get the AR?

Robert, I agree with you: Flanagan will not win. It’s very rare for an American woman to win a major marathon. Apart from Kastor (who won London in 2006 and Chicago in 2005), the last American woman to win a major was Kristy Johnston way back in 1994 in Chicago.

But I’m not making this pick because of an arbitrary streak. Flanagan is good, but if you look at her credentials, you could make the case that she’s only the third-best runner in this field. I’m picking Tirfi Tsegaye of Ethiopia for the win. She’s run 67:42 for the half (49 seconds faster than Flanagan) and has won a big marathon in each of the past three years -- Paris in 2012, Dubai in 2013 and Tokyo this year, the latter in a course record. I like that she knows how to win (Flanagan’s only marathon win was at the 2012 Olympic Trials), a course record at a major like Tokyo is no joke and Tsegaye has also run well at Berlin before, taking second in 2012. Feyse Tadese and Flanagan will be dangerous, but I expect Tsegaye to be the one celebrating in the end. The one thing that does help Flanagan is that Berlin is by far the weakest of the fall marathons. She’d be a massive underdog in Chicago or New York but has a legitimate shot to win Berlin.

I think the American record will be tough, but I am going to say that Flanagan gets it. It’s been a while since Flanagan has been on the track, but people need to remember how dominant she was. Her 30:22 American record in the 10k is 25 seconds faster than #2 Molly Huddle and 28 seconds up on the woman she’s chasing, #3 Deena Kastor. And Flanagan ran that in the Olympic final in the bad air conditions of Beijing! Of course, a great 10k doesn’t necessarily make for a great marathon, but Flanagan’s 2:22:02 in Boston stacks up favorably with Kastor’s best races (Kastor broke 2:22 three times but they came on flatter courses in Chicago and London). Flanagan PR’d by 3:36 using a front-running approach in Boston. Now she has rabbits, a faster course and the confidence that comes from leading a major marathon. She’s never gone for a really fast time on a quick course before. I think it will be close but Shalane gets it.

Something else people need to appreciate: Flanagan may not get many more chances at breaking this record. Kastor was the same age -- 33 -- as Flanagan when she set the record and hasn’t run within eight minutes of the record since. Flanagan turned down a lot of money in appearance/prize money to run in Berlin and it’s unlikely she’ll be willing to do that again in the future. That means she’ll probably go back to running New York/Boston and maybe Chicago, of which Chicago is the only course where she’d have a realistic chance of running 2:19. And then she’d have the Olympic Trials/Olympics in 2016, making it difficult to PR that year. Flanagan may not have the pressure of an American crowd but there is definitely a sense of urgency for her in Berlin.

What do you guys think? Will America have a reason to celebrate on Sunday morning? (And I’m not counting the Ryder Cup because I expect Europe to win that once again).

I will be chiming in with a few words here and there, giving predictions from a Canadian's point of view.

Letsrun.ca wrote:

I will be chiming in with a few words here and there, giving predictions from a Canadian's point of view.

Let's hear it. Are there any Canadians in Berlin this year?

Trivia, how far back would the Canadian record holder Lanni Marchant be when Paula R set her world record?

2:15:45 and 2:28.00.

If she ran even paced, Lanny would hit 24 miles at 2:15:28. So more than 2 miles.

I am pretty sure Cabada was Vail's (and Overall's and Chris Thompson's) pacer in London, so his DNF doesn't count.

I'm not sure where to begin.

1) If Flanagan gets the AR I think she's got a great chance of winning the race. Those things are going to be closely tied together. Only in 5 races has a woman broken 2:20 and lost. You run very fast from point A to point B and you often when the race. Flanagan is saying the record is the priority, but that doesn't mean she won't have a good chance of winning if she gets it.

Although 3 women broke 2:20 in Dubain in 2012 so on a fast course like Berlin running sub 2:20 and losing is a possibility.

2) Flanagan's marathon career does not show she's a sub 2:20 runner. She was only 7th in Boston this year, nearly 3 minutes back of the winner. 7th place runners in majors don't usually break 2:20. (Only 18 women have ever broken 2:20). Sure it was a PR but that shows how fast Boston was this year (thanks to Shalane's pacing). Boston is a net downhill and we've seen pretty fast when runners attack it.

Shalane's best major marathon finish was 2nd in her debut in NY. That was a very slow race that would favor track speed at the end which she had a lot of. Her marathon career does not scream "I'm ready to run sub 2:20".

3) Shalane's track career (Olympic bronze) and world XC (bronze) indicate she could be a sub 2:20 runner. However, others have run as fast as her and not broken 2:20. What if her best distance is 10-12k? Nothing wrong with that.

4) The one thing that most says to me she can run sub 2:20 is her total focus on running Berlin. She is passing up a bigger payday elsewhere to run here. 1:09 in a half marathon 2 months out in a solo effort is pretty good. Even how Shalane ran Boston this year would indicate that that sub 2:20 pace is comfortable to her. Her thinking was, "I can just outrun you all." Paula Radcliffe ran that way and she could back it up. Shalane must be doing stuff in training to think sub 2:20 isn't crazy.

The one benefit Shalane will have here is the male pacers. In Boston it was up to her. In high school she was known for going out too hard and passing out:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=2402026#2402119

That won't happen here as the male pacers will put a governor on her efforts.

I'll hold off on my prediction for now, but I'm tempted to wake up in the middle of the night to watch. I even debated using miles to fly to Berlin.

I will say Flanagan will win the race and run 2:19.58 just short of the American Record.

i pick the consistent Kebede to upset the field in the mens race in 2:03.50, so no World Record.

I don't think Shalane will get the American Record. Just a gut feeling. Maybe 2:21 for 3rd or 4th. She'll go home devastated.

I'd agree no record, she won't break 2:20.

Also anyone know where you can watch this in the UK? Checked Eurosport but it didn't seem to be on.

I'm thinking she gets agonizingly close to the 2:20 barrier but not under.

2:20:15

Can't argue against her 10k credentials, and very solid marathons as well. That being said and given the knowledge we have of her and her training I just don't think there is quite enough there to get her past the American record.

Sure hope I'm proved wrong but I think 10k-half marathon might be her true sweet spot.

Good morning people. Why do I consisently stay up to 2 am for no reason? I need to pop out some kids so i'm too tired to surf the Internet that late.

Anyway, a few points jump out at me as I look at this with a new set of eyes.

1) I just realized this very well cold be the one and only time in her life that Shalane Flanagan will ever have the rest of her life for sub 2:20.

Think about it. She's a Bostonian. There is almost zero chance she doesn't run Boston in 2015 (is she really going ot go to London to try to break 2:20?). After that, she'll have the Olympic Trials and Olympics. THen we're into 2017 and she's a lot older.

Well I take that back, she might run Chicago next Fall.

Because the Trials are in 2016, I highly doubt she'd run New York in November next fall. Yes Meb did New York/the Trials a few months later in 2012 and everyone at the time thought it was because he was old and needed one last payday as he'd never do anything big again (that thought seems REALLY stupid now doesn't it). But it's a short recovery window. If you are going to do a fall marathon and then the Trials, Chicago makes more sense as you get an extra 3 weeks rest.

Now I'm writing this as stream of conciousness and doing research as I type. The recovery issue in 2016 is easier than 2012 as the Trials are a full month + later. February 13th versus January 10th so maybe she would do NY as she's so much better than everyone but Desi in the marathon she should have little trouble making the 2016 team.

But it's possible she doens't do a fall marathon at all as you still are talking about a 3-4 month window as compared to your normal 6 month window for a major.

2) Weldon makes some very good points (In addition to being the faster twin, is he also the smarter one (he did come on late to beat me in HS GPA?).

The fact that SHalane is going all in for Berlin is the is very important. She simply tried to time trial and run away from everyone in Boston. She's running Berlin, not NY. SHe's clearly very motivated and motivation goes a long way for all runners even pros.

Weldon also is correct in saying that nothing in her marahton career indicates sub-2:20 except maybe a runner-up showing in New York, but that 30:22 10,000 track pb is hard to ignore.

If Desi can run 2:22 with a 31:37 pb, what can Shalane do with that 30:22???

Lastly, if she breaks 2:20, Weldon is right, she likely will win. The fastest to the finish line wins and Berlin isn't very deep historically.

3) IN terms of the record attempts in Berlin, one thing is now clear. The weather looks pretty good. THe weather.com hourly forecast -

http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/GMXX0007?pagenum=4&nextbeginIndex=42

- is now oging through race time. 50ish at the start, 60ish at the finish, sunny. 4-5 mph winds.

That's a little hotter than you might one but the wind is the key thing for me.

The humidity will be in the high 70s/80s, but does humidity matter at that low temp?? Can the weather experts chime in again?

3) All of those points are making me rethink my initial leaning that she won't win which also mean likely she wouldn't get the record.

Plus I was thinking I wouldn't get up at 2:45 am to watch it as I have a family brunch event early on Sunday. I totally believe I'm often a jinx of a sports fan. If I watch, I'm always seemingly disappointed as whoever I'm rooting for sucks. If I skip it, I"ll probably miss double records (world record men, americna record women). Maybe Shalane and Jerry should pay me not to watch.

(Side note: Now having moved to Baltimore and seeing the Ravens win the SUper Bowl and now being a huge Orioles fan, I'm starting to realize maybe I'm not a sports fan jinx. My constant disappointment is probably just the fact I am a Cowboys fan. It has nothing to do with me and everything to do with Jerry Jones' incomeptence).

So I'm tempted to be a fan and say, "AR and win for Shalane". Being a running fan and listenting to the stats, I'm often right (but disappointed). I'll make my pick for her officially once I get JK on the phone.

Let's talk about the men's race now. I'm worryhing this post is getting too long so I'll hit submit and start a new on on the men.

rojo wrote:

Let's talk about the men's race now.

When I saw the men's field, two words jumped out at me. Kimetto and Kipsang (but i guess he wants to be known as Kamworor now). So Kimetto or Kamworor. I've been a big fan of Kamworor for a while now looking for him to take over the mantle of superstar young phenom left by Sammy Wanjiru.

He still could. WHile Kamworor's marathon career has been slightly disappointing up to date - how crazy is marathoning that a 2:06 pb at age 21 is a disappointment? - here's something to consider.

He's still super young.

Wanjiru defied his Japanese coaches by running and winning the Olympic marathon at age 21 (Wanjiru's first 3 marathons were all run when he was 21 - Fukuoka (1st 2:06:39, London (2nd 2:05:24) and Beijing 2:06:32 2nd). THat was viewed as super young.

Kamworor is 21 and this will be his 5th marathon. He ran his first at age 19 (side note, someone on the messageboard pointed out the IOC has made it a rule that you have tob e 20 to run in the Olympic marathon).

SO the focus will be on them but I want to give out some love for Tsegaye Kebede. OUr friend Sabrina Yohannes had a great Q&A with him earlier this week. Check it out:

The guy is a real pro and model of consistency. his track record in marathons is unreal. At age 27, he's run 17 marathons. All of them have been under 2:10:00 except for a 4th place finish at world and 3rd in the Olympics. 10 times he's broken 2:07!! Ten!!!

I wonder if he's ever even dropped out of a marathon. How dyou keep that up year after year?

He says it's because he has no vices. So great.

KEbede's career marathons.

2007

2:08:16 8 ING Amsterdam 21 Oct

2008

2:06:40 1 Paris 6 Apr

2:10:00 3 OG Beijing 24 Aug

2:06:10 1 Fukuoka 7 Dec

2009

2:05:20 2 Flora London 26 Apr

2:08:35 3 WC Berlin 22 Aug

2:05:18 1 Fukuoka 6 Dec

2010

2:05:19 1 Virgin London 25 Apr

2:06:43 2 Bank of Am Chicago IL 10 Oct

2011

2:07:48 5 Virgin London 17 Apr

2:07:14 3 ING New York NY 6 Nov

2012

2:06:52 3 Virgin London 22 Apr

2:04:38 1 Bank of Am Chicago IL 7 Oct

2013

2:06:04 1 Virgin London 21 Apr

2:10:47 4 WC Moskva 17 Aug

2:09:15 2 ING New York NY 3 Nov

2014

2:06:30 3 Virgin London 13 Apr

He's only 27. If he stays motivated, imagine how many sub 2:10s he cold produce.

But the shelf-life of a marathoner isn't very long is it? Take a look at the top 15 from the 2008 Olympics. Kebede is the only one that is still a bigtime threat.

1 Samuel Wanjiru KEN 10 Nov 86 2:06:32

2 Jaouad Gharib MAR 22 May 72 2:07:16

3 Tsegaye Kebede ETH 15 Jan 87 2:10:00

4 Deribe Merga ETH 26 Oct 82 2:10:21

5 Martin Lel KEN 29 Oct 78 2:10:24

6 Viktor Röthlin SUI 14 Oct 74 2:10:35

7 Asfaws Gashaw Melese ETH26 Sep 78 2:10:52

8 Yared Asmeron ERI 3 Feb 79 2:11:11

9 Dathan RitzenheinUSA 30 Dec 82 2:11:59

10 Ryan Hall USA 14 Oct 82 2:12:33

11 Mike Fokoroni ZIM 10 Jan 77 2:13:17

12 Stefano Baldini ITA 25 May 71 2:13:25

13 Tsuyoshi Ogata JPN 11 May 73 2:13:26

14 Grigoriy AndreyevRUS 7 Jan 76 2:13:33

15 Ruggero Pertile ITA 8 Aug 74 2:13:39

So while I dont think he's likely to get the win or WR, some major props out to him for being so consistently good. Truly amazing.

All right guys, since I'm going to be at the XC meet in Boston this afternoon, I'll throw out some predictions for the men's race now.

I'm going with Dennis Kimetto for the win but I don't think he gets the world record. Logically, he has a greater chance at the WR than Flanagan does at the AR -- he ran 2:03:45 at Chicago last year and the WR has been broken four times in the past seven years in Berlin.

But every time that record gets broken, it gets harder to break. There's a strong case to be made that the guy who owns the record right now, Wilson Kipsang, is the greatest marathoner on the planet. If Kimetto is to take down that record, it will require a gargantuan effort.

One thing I'm curious to see is how the endgame plays out for the top guys. Usually Berlin is one man against the clock but in Kimetto, Emmanuel Mutai and Tsegaye Kebede, we've got three guys who could legitimately threaten the WR. In an ideal world, those three will all still be in it at the 20-mile mark.

If that happens, how will they play it with no rabbits left? If the WR starts to slip, does one of them keep pressing for the time even if it might hinder their chances for the win? Or do Kebede/Kimetto wait longer to make their move, knowing that the $500,000 World Marathon Majors title is on the line? I have no idea what is going to happen and that's what makes this race appealing.

Of course I could be totally wrong and Kimetto just blows everyone away in 2:03:0x. I wouldn't mind seeing that either.

The women's field in Berlin is very soft. All the sub 2:20 women are running Chicago and New York. If Shalane runs close to the AR, anyone looking to beat her will need to PR by 2-3 min at least. If Shalane gets the AR, her time would win all but two of the previous Berlin Marathons.

Does Shalane have a sub 2:20 in her? Why not? Her 10k pr is a half lap faster than Deena's. She ran 2:22 at Boston with no tailwind. That is at least worth 2:20 high on a flat course. Conditions should be excellent on Sunday in Berlin (maybe a touch on the warm side, but mostly 50s for the runners). I think she has dead even odds of winning.

Accuweather is reporting slightly warmer weather than weather.com

http://www.accuweather.com/en/de/berlin/10178/hourly-weather-forecast/178087?hour=53

55 to 62 during the race.

-Rojo

PS. Employee 1.1 is upset he wasn't included in the predictions. Given teh fact he dominated the IAAF fantasy prediction contest, he certainly should be included. I didn't include him initially because he normally works from like 10 pm to 4 am ET so I never talk to him. So look for him to post on here.

Tsegay 2:20 low, Flanagan 2:20 high.

Kimetto bounces back from whatever happened in Boston for a non-WR win over Kebede.

I go back to sleep for a few hours and then pace a HM in 1:45:00.

It's interest to see the poll results.

It was like running 54% for Flanagan to get the AR when the poll was only in the article. Now that it's on the front page, it's down to 51%.

My theory is that Flanagan fans were the ones most likely to read the article and thus were voting yes. Casual fans see it on the HP and vote no.

39% of people are voting yes to the men's WR poll in the men's article. I bet if we put that on the HP it would drop as well.

I think the WR might be more likely than Flanagan's AR.

Kimetto's 2:03:45 in Chicago is just as impressive to me as a 2:03:23 in a time trial in Berlin.

I was initially tempted to pick Kimetto for the win and no WR but now am thinking of saying yes to the WR.

I still want to talk to JK.

As a staff, before the race, we must come up with an official LRC pick even if our individual picks are different.

For the men's race if Kimetto is on I think he wins.

His track record in the marathon is tremendous. The world record is hard to predict but I think if he's on he gets it. Berlin is so damn fast. If the weather is good and the winning time is sub 2:04 I say he gets the world record.

If he's off, Kebede is my pick for the win.

My Budweiser long shot is Geoffrey Kamworor. If he figures out the marathon look out. Not sure if there are betting odds on the race in Europe but he would probably be a great bet.

Good analysis, Weldon. I would add a couple of things:

1. Although Shalane's relatively slow times on record-quality marathon courses can be explained away to a significant extent by the tactical nature of those races, and her seventh-place finish at Boston can be explained away to some extent by her decision to, in effect, rabbit the race for the lead pack as long as she could (about 30K, I believe), I don't believe that she's ever run any especially fast times at any distances above 15K, despite quite a number of half-marathons during the last five years in addition to her marathons. Maybe there are good reasons that she has never broken 68:30 for the half, but that's not a stat that would typically suggest a sub-2:20. Also, losing over three minutes to Jeptoo and two minutes to Deba over the last 12K or so at Boston isn't particularly indicative of sub-2:20 ability on a record-quality course.

2. On the flip side, having at least two personal male pacers is huge, and not merely because they may keep a governor on her pace. As a matter of physics and physiology, it's worth a lot. (Berlin's heavy reliance on pacemakers is also the main reason that I don't find the race to be especially interesting, especially on the women's side.)

All in all, I'm a bit up in the air about Shalane's ability to break, or come close to, Deena's AR. The race conditions (including personal pacers and a superfast course) seem likely to be close to ideal, and her 10,000m and cross-country accomplishments suggest the ability, but her road-racing history does not. If I were betting, I'd probably go with the road-racing history.