Lagat 4:54, Levins 4:55, Torrence, Bumbi, Jager 4:57 - mile/1500/3000 equivalent?

Kellogg threw out 28% as his conversion factor. If that holds, Levins appears to be in 3:50.5 shape, and Lagat could nudge his indoor mile AR down.

Yessum wrote:

Pretty good races across the board, but a very unusual distance. What do y'all think they can do at USAs based on these runs?

Lagat's time is probably worth about a 3:51-2 in the mile. Wouldn't be surprised if he could put down a 7:37 or so in the 3K. Torrence probably about the same.

Cam Levins is Canadian so he won't be at USAs. For a guy like Levins that is more suited to a 5K or 10K, I'm guessing that this indicates he's in about 3:53 shape in the mile, probably around a 7:37 as well.

sawthatonecoming wrote:

Yessum wrote:

Pretty good races across the board, but a very unusual distance. What do y'all think they can do at USAs based on these runs?

Lagat's time is probably worth about a 3:51-2 in the mile. Wouldn't be surprised if he could put down a 7:37 or so in the 3K. Torrence probably about the same.

Cam Levins is Canadian so he won't be at USAs. For a guy like Levins that is more suited to a 5K or 10K, I'm guessing that this indicates he's in about 3:53 shape in the mile, probably around a 7:37 as well.

Lagat can certainly run faster than 7:37 right now in a Rupp-style rabbited 3k. US won't be this fast, though, for anyone.

Bumbi just ran 7:37, so I'm sure Lagat can beat that...

james naismith li wrote:

sawthatonecoming wrote:

Lagat's time is probably worth about a 3:51-2 in the mile. Wouldn't be surprised if he could put down a 7:37 or so in the 3K. Torrence probably about the same.

Cam Levins is Canadian so he won't be at USAs. For a guy like Levins that is more suited to a 5K or 10K, I'm guessing that this indicates he's in about 3:53 shape in the mile, probably around a 7:37 as well.

Lagat can certainly run faster than 7:37 right now in a Rupp-style rabbited 3k. US won't be this fast, though, for anyone.

So maybe around a 7:34-5 if he was in a rabbited race. Can't see him going much faster than that at this age indoors. If he raced the 3K today in conditions similar to the 2000m they ran and indoors, I still don't think he breaks 7:37. His PR is 7:29 outdoors, no? And it was set 4 years ago.

You don't think Lagat can beat Ryan Hill? I sure wish thst were case but don't believe it. For 3000 runners Bumbi and Jäger, they have to feel pretty good with their times.

Yessum wrote:

You don't think Lagat can beat Ryan Hill? I sure wish thst were case but don't believe it. For 3000 runners Bumbi and Jäger, they have to feel pretty good with their times.

If he got pulled by Gebhriwet and Gebremeskel, sure. That was a really good race for Hill, though. It was a good race for Bumbi and Heath too. I don't think Lagat is a lock to beat Ryan Hill at age 39. Maybe not even a favorite.

You can't really make straight comparisons in T&F (e.g. "Bumbi ran 7:37 recently, and Lagat beat him, so Lagat can run far under 7:37). I mean, Levins ran 7:41 in that same race, so you could just as easily make the argument that Lagat is in 7:40 shape as he's in 7:36 shape. The calculators have his run today around 7:37, so I'll stick with it.

[/quote]

So maybe around a 7:34-5 if he was in a rabbited race. Can't see him going much faster than that at this age indoors. If he raced the 3K today in conditions similar to the 2000m they ran and indoors, I still don't think he breaks 7:37. His PR is 7:29 outdoors, no? And it was set 4 years ago.[/quote]

Who has run that fast at his age for you to compare to? Lagat's on a different level than most in their late 30's.

Lagat already ran 7:38i this year and this indicates better. Levins was in very good shape already for shorter distances when he ran 13:19 as evidenced by how easily he ran the post-meet workout with multiple 53s and not breathing hard afterwards, unlike Rupp. If you think about it, 4:54 on pace is 3:55 1600 and :59 400, so 3:50-1 seems likely for a mile. That's not much slower than he has run outdoors in the 1500m for years. So, I'd think he can run 7:32. By the way, the outdoor world record is a sterling 4:44 by El G! He ran 2:52/3:49.6 (1600m) /55.2.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsr0mZiRbNw

no lie wrote:

So maybe around a 7:34-5 if he was in a rabbited race. Can't see him going much faster than that at this age indoors. If he raced the 3K today in conditions similar to the 2000m they ran and indoors, I still don't think he breaks 7:37. His PR is 7:29 outdoors, no? And it was set 4 years ago.[/quote]

Who has run that fast at his age for you to compare to? Lagat's on a different level than most in their late 30's.[/quote]

No one, but I am just comparing him to himself. I imagine he isn't getting faster at this point in his career.

His indoor 3K PR is 7:32 I think. He ran it in 2007 in his prime. He fastest PR last season was (I think) 7:34.7 outdoors (although he did run 12:58). It's just hard to see him running any faster than 7:34 in February indoors when he hasn't run under that in any conditions in 3 years.

jjjjjjjj wrote:

Lagat already ran 7:38i this year and this indicates better. Levins was in very good shape already for shorter distances when he ran 13:19 as evidenced by how easily he ran the post-meet workout with multiple 53s and not breathing hard afterwards, unlike Rupp. If you think about it, 4:54 on pace is 3:55 1600 and :59 400, so 3:50-1 seems likely for a mile. That's not much slower than he has run outdoors in the 1500m for years. So, I'd think he can run 7:32. By the way, the outdoor world record is a sterling 4:44 by El G! He ran 2:52/3:49.6 (1600m) /55.2.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsr0mZiRbNw

So you think Lagat is going to PR indoors at age 39 in February?

Would you be upset if he did?

No, Lagat is probably my favorite American runner, maybe my favorite runner ever from any nationality. I just don't think it's realistic to expect him to run that fast (or anywhere near that fast) at this age given his results the last few years. He is amazing for his age, and has hung on well, but he isn't running 7:32 in 2014.

He has done well at winning events or remaining competitive because he was a 3:26 runner in his prime and championship 3000s, 5000s, and 10000s have really favored him as a result, but it's clear his all-out has been declining the last couple years.

sawthatonecoming wrote:

No, Lagat is probably my favorite American runner, maybe my favorite runner ever from any nationality. I just don't think it's realistic to expect him to run that fast (or anywhere near that fast) at this age given his results the last few years. He is amazing for his age, and has hung on well, but he isn't running 7:32 in 2014.

He has done well at winning events or remaining competitive because he was a 3:26 runner in his prime and championship 3000s, 5000s, and 10000s have really favored him as a result, but it's clear his all-out has been declining the last couple years.

didn't he set an american indoor record last year?

I mean, he set a AR today. I don't get how it is relevant to him running 7:32 or 7:33. Do you guys think he is getting faster? Because all I am saying is he hasn't run that fast in years and it seems unlikely he would now.

what is Torrence running at USAs? his 1:47 split was 2nd or 3rd fastest overall at the 4x8 last week, and today's performance shows he could run a good mile or 3K as well. does the schedule set up so that someone like DT or Ryan Hill could try 2 events? maybe go after an 800 or mile spot, and then come back in the 3K?

PS not to nitpick (so i will now nitpick...) but i think torrence was 4:56 today. gotta give him props, he was in like 8th or 9th and well off the leaders pretty late in race, ran a smokin 2nd K.

No you said that you can't see he go any faster than 7:34-5. I can see that there is a least the possibility of 7:32 for him right now.

Well he ran 4:56.99, so it's essentially 4:57. Props for beating Bumbalough and Jäger, though this is much closer to Torrence's event (1500) than theirs (5000/steeple for Jäger), so I'm not too surprised. Good run for all of them.

Also, to the person whose talked about Lagat not running any fast indoor times lately and thus not being as good as Ryan Hill or capable of better than 7:37, he ran an 8:09 two mile just last winter, which is equivalent to 7:33. The year before that, he didn't get in a fast one but he absolutely thrashed Rupp and Lomong at USAs. In fact, every indoor AR he's targeted the last couple of years, he's achieved. So I don't really know what you're talking about.