Predict my Marathon Time

Ugh, must be annoying to be hovering right over that 1:20 barrier. Seems like something in your training though is not right if your times continue to be sub-par. Too many races? Not enough good recovery?

My only advice: just rest up these next 2 weeks. Slow/gradual progression runs on FLAT SOFT surfaces with striders after each run. Try to break up your runs into AM/PM. Maybe 45 easy am, and 45 easy pm w/striders (4-6 @ 20-30 seconds) after each. If you feel good you may want to run a short quick tempo sometime next week (4-5 miles). Other than that, keep it very easy.

If you do that you may be able to run sub-120. I hear, Philly is fast and historically the temp is perfect for the HM. I'll find out myself this year as well.

See you at the start!

The reason I can't break 1:20 is that I got injured hamstring tendonitis and can't do speed workouts. The 1:20 was with speed the 1:21 was with no speed but 3 lbs lighter.

I was wondering what people's predictions are if I switch from the half to the full.

The Philly Half is a fast course, not as fast as the RNR half as there are hills at miles 6 and 9 but its fast. Best of luck with your quest of breaking 1:20, you can do it!!

You have a 1:20HM but can barely break 3:10 in the marathon? Something not right, son!

I've only done 2 marathons, Philly was my first last year, I was only in 1:27 shape last year and ran a 3:11 on my first. I upped my mileage and got down to 1:20 this year. Just had a bad day in NYC, I did my 20 miler on a hot and hilly course in 2:20 (exactly 7 min miles) with no problems. I agree something is not right but it might just be the sample size.

So any predictions in what I can run in the Philly Full 14 days after running the NYC full based on my fitness level?

If you ran NYC 2 weeks ago then why are you running another full? I don't think the time is predictable at this point bc your legs probably are thrashed after NYC so, in all likelihood you will feel a little flat for Philly.

Considering Philly is a much faster course and you've run a couple 1:20s your best bet is to go out conservative (130-135) and try to negative split the second 1/2.

If fresh: 2:52

2 weeks after NYC: 3:00.

You just answered your own question, the reason I'd want to do the Philly full 2 weeks after a disappointing performance in NY is to PR and salvage all of this marathon training cycle.

My gameplan would actually be to go out in 1:31-1:32 and even if I even split I'd honestly be happy.

Thank you for responding, your post was very helpful to me even validating my gameplan for the race.

Worst case scenario I'm still thrashed from NY and I drop out and help pace a few friends in the later miles of the race.

I went out in 1:28 in NYC which was very reasonable, very upset that I cramped up at 16 and had to run the last 11 miles with cramps.

You're times are approximately what I run here in Colorado so maybe I have the altitude advantage but my marathon times at sea level hover between 2:45 and 2:47 these days.

No reason you couldn't run those times, or at least near 2:50. I would recommend that you have at least a few long runs where you focus on putting more time on your legs but not super fast (at least 2:35 - 2:40).

Best of luck! Hope you find something that works for you.

Skinny runner- you may have just hit on the flaw in my training program, I pretty much do 50-60 MPW all at race pace or often faster but even on my 20 miler that only puts me out there for about 2:20, guess that's not long enough.

I think that elevation is a huge advantage for you, also not sure your height/weight but I'm 6'2" 195 so maybe being larger is catching up with me on fulls.

I honestly think I'm capable of at the very least sub 3 but so far I haven't been able to become close in my first 2 attempts.

My bib # in NYC was 2019 I had the perfect pace going and the wheels came off fast. Marathons are so frustrating!

Reg fields wrote:

Skinny runner- you may have just hit on the flaw in my training program, I pretty much do 50-60 MPW all at race pace or often faster but even on my 20 miler that only puts me out there for about 2:20, guess that's not long enough.

I think that elevation is a huge advantage for you, also not sure your height/weight but I'm 6'2" 195 so maybe being larger is catching up with me on fulls.

I honestly think I'm capable of at the very least sub 3 but so far I haven't been able to become close in my first 2 attempts.

My bib # in NYC was 2019 I had the perfect pace going and the wheels came off fast. Marathons are so frustrating!

I think you have a very valid point. I am 5'4" and about 120 lbs so that is definitely an advantage. But I know others that have your approximate frame and they're able to run sub 3.

Don't sell yourself short. You ran very close to 3:00 in only your first 2 marathons. Not shabby. It takes a while to get it down but at least you're consistent. Also NYC is a good bit harder than a flat marathon. When I ran it 2 years ago I had my slowest time on that course. 3:09 in NYC is probably comparable to a 3:03 on a flat course. Just a guess though.

don't do the full in philly. it 90% won't go well. you may PR, but save it for another day.

do the half, and break 1:20. redemption run!

Thanks for the words of encouragement skinny runner.

Reed- I'm ok with it not going well, in fact if it doesn't plan B would be to pull out of the race and help pace some friends. I don't think sub 1:20 is happening 2 weeks after NYC. This is my last race of the season, plenty of time to rest up after this. As for saving it, I'm not so sure I want to train for more marathons, I'm much more comfortable running/training for 5Ks-Halfs

So I'm definitely going to go ahead and try the Philly Full this weekend, any other predictions on my time. Will I beat my 3:09 from NYC 13 days prior, DNF, any guesses?

It sounds like you've already made up your mind. My recommendation... Don't run either the full or the half. If your long-term goal is to get faster at the marathon, you'd probably be better served to recover properly now and get back to serious training sooner with more mileage and more quality and go for a better performance in the spring. Running another full (or half) 2 weeks after a tough marathon where you ran in to trouble (sounds like you did) is a great way to get injured, frustrated, or both.[quote]Reg Fields wrote:

DC_Dc, I hear you but its been a long race year for me and this is my last race. I plan on taking a break after this. Then I can decide whether I really want to keep pursuing a solid marathon or maybe focus on increasing my footspeed and going after a sub 1:18 half which is looking a lot more realistic than sub 3 at this point.

If I run into major trouble in Philly like I did in NYC I'm just going to drop out and call it a day rather than risk major injury. I registered for this race long before I had even planned on running the NYC Marathon.

In case anyone is wondering I ended up running a 3:08 marathon. I was on under 3:05 pace with less than 4 miles to go and my legs cramped up. I had plenty of energy left, I just need to figure out how to avoid cramping somehow in these marathons.

You need volume. Simple as that. If you're staying at the same weekly volume, do the long run for 2h30min build to 3hrs. Stay on 3hrs for say 5-6 weeks. Just time on feet, really slow. No need to go fast. That will probably clear your cramps. After those 5-6 weeks of long runs,you turn to more MP long runs for 3-4 wks, and you're set.

3.08 of a 1:20 half is kind of lame. Sorry to say. I never broke 1:21 and my marathon PR is 2.51

Good luck for your next race. You'll get there easily.

The poster above me is right.

With 50 - 60 miles per week you are not properly trained to run the equivalent marathon time for your half marathon time.

1. Run more miles

2. Longer distance runs + longer long runs

3. Start to throw in a couple of MP miles in the end of the long runs.

--> 4. You will smash 3:00 hours!

Thanks for reporting back.

El G wrote:

You need volume. Simple as that. If you're staying at the same weekly volume, do the long run for 2h30min build to 3hrs. Stay on 3hrs for say 5-6 weeks. Just time on feet, really slow. No need to go fast. That will probably clear your cramps. After those 5-6 weeks of long runs,you turn to more MP long runs for 3-4 wks, and you're set.

+1

Did you grab any water or anything from the aid stations? maybe try to gulp down a cup of water every 8k or so. I realize it's november now but you still sweat more than you'd think. Bring a gel or two, can't hurt.