Can Evan Jager eventually break 8:00 in the steeple??

Remember when Chris Solinsky ran 26:59? I don't think Solinsky will run faster in that event. Sometimes when you are super fit and you are new to an event you tend to run pressure free and excited (hence Solinsky) and things just happen. 8:06 is not a walk in the park. I believe Jager has the tools to go faster, but don't forget that sub-8 is about a second faster per lap than his already stellar time. Just look how small that list of sub-8 runners is. It's possible, but I'd say there is a better chance he doesn't break 8 minutes.

troll dissector wrote:

No. Absolutely not. Though he has run the event 5 times, and only for the past 3-4 months, and recently dropped from 8:16 to 8:06, it will be impossible for him to drop those remaining 6-7 seconds during the remainder of his career.

I could see 8:00:01, or possibly even 8:00:00 if everything goes perfectly. But sub-8:00? Impossible.

I was thinking of how I could best point out that this thread is stupid, but I think you covered it.

yes

The 10 sub-8' steeplers flat PRs, according to IAAF:

Shaheen - 3'33, 7'32, 12'48

Kipruto Kiprop - 3'35, 7'39

Koech - 3'37, 7'33, 13'05

Boulami - 7'38, 13'28

Barmasai - 3'37, 7'36, 13'23

Kemboi - 7'49

Kiptaniu - 3'34, 7'27, 12'54

Mateelong - 3'41, 7'48, 13'30

Kosgei - 3'37

Kipketer - 7'33

I think Jager is a 3'33-3'37, 7'30-7'40, 13'00-13'10 guy.

He's the beginning of a paradigm shift. No longer can mediocre/2nd tier Kenyans dominate in the steeple. Soon taller, more athletic runners from other countries are going to find the steeple and being a 3'35/7'35/13'10 guy in the steeple won't mean you're medalling.

Imagine if 25% of the guys in the USA 5k OT final trained for the steeple instead, I mean they aren't going to make an Olympic team running 13'15 these days anyway. How many 8'20-something guys would we have in just a year or two? And in 4 years how many 8'10 guys will we have?

Donn Cabral shows this point perfectly. His flat 3k PR (just ran 7'53, was 7'58) wouldn't get him to NCAAs indoors, yet he's an Olympian at the steeple. How many of those guys from the NCAA indoor 3k could steeple half as well as Cabral and (maybe not run 8'19 right away but) make themselves into internationally competitive runners.

Jager is going to prove that moderately fast Kenyans with crappy form aren't the future of steepling.

Possibly, but you're crazy if you think Koech, Kemboi, Kipruto are second tier runners that Jager would handle in a flat race.

He's young enough and new enough to the steeple not to be close to being maxed out, and his flat pr's are obviously very soft right now (as are most of the top steeplers'), so we can still hope he does something spectacular like a sub 8, and indeed that he runs sub 13 5k and sub 7:30 in the flat 3k. Why take bets this early?

yes

The Steeple is different than all the other distance events. There is a lot more learning in that event, even if you are a natural. malmo, who knows a thing or two about the sport and about the Steeple in particular, said he would be at 8:05-8:10 this year when he heard he had run his first one in 8:26.

He is now at the point where squeezing out 7 seconds is a lot harder than the seven seconds gong from 8:29 to 8:19 or 8:19 to 8:12, etc. This is the first steeple where he had to back off a little at the finish because he had been going so hard the entire race, especially the previous 600m where he started passing guys and challenging for a high placing.

He still has room to improve (a little). A lot would have to happen for him to run sub 8. I believe he is capable now to break the AR in the 3k and 2 mile based on his steeple time.

lkj wrote:

He still has room to improve (a little). A lot would have to happen for him to run sub 8. I believe he is capable now to break the AR in the 3k and 2 mile based on his steeple time.

I think he has a lot of room to improve, as long as he can avoid injury. Yes, it will be much harder to shave time off now, but this is his first year in the event, and if it's true he's only running 75 miles per week, he has a lot of upside to get to a higher level of fitness. I think sub-8:00 is a done deal, again assuming he stays healthy, and that he will approach 7:55 ultimately.

* wrote:

Odds are long for Jager.

But so is his hair.

fixed

And that's why he's gonna do it!

Hometown wrote:

ttc wrote:

I'd bet no. Most often when a distance AR is broken, no matter the runner's age, it's career-defining & he doesn't rebreak his own record later.

That, like most things you say, would be easy to disprove.

Then disprove it. Most often, an AR is not rebroken by the same runner. Disprove it.

I'm calling you a liar.

Seyta wrote:

ttc wrote:

...Most often when a distance AR is broken, no matter the runner's age, it's career-defining & he doesn't rebreak his own record later...

Hey, remember when Lagat kept breaking his own records after getting the American Record?

Lagat has 4 AR's (indoor 1500, indoor mile, indoor 5K, outdoor 5K), and only 1 was breaking his own record. Even your own example is proven wrong. Most of the time, he doesn't break his own record.

6 seconds is a lot for a 7 1/2 lap race, but BEFORE Jager's AR race if you had asked everyone here if he could run 8:06 I'm sure everyone would have said no. So given that he is only 23 and so new to the event I think he has a shot if he doesn't get injured or switch to a more lucrative event.

I hate to dampen everyone's excitement, but the reality is Jager in not going to keep making big drops...it simply does not work like that. He is at the point right now where the drops are small or you platuea. I think Jager has the potential to run sub-8, but it may take a coule of years. Right now I will be happpy to see him consistently compete againt the best and hold his own.

This thread is pretty amusing simply from the fact that most world class steeplers do are horrible hurdlers.

Evan is a perfect steeple chase competitor simply from a height and athletic standpoint... but while watching the race he broke the American record, you'll notice one constant that is the same among every athlete, especially the Africans... none of them hurdle.

They all just get over the barrier. All of them "Jump" the barrier. With Evan's height, it isn't that hard to learn how to hurdle properly and flatten the trail leg.

To the OP, yes, he can break 8. If anyone thinks he can't, you're and idiot... the better question is, if he, along with half of Africa, didn't wast so much time jumping the barrier instead of hurdling it, could he run 7:55. I think yes.

Anyone thinking Evan can't is an idiot? Using facts as the criteria: Until he does break 8:00, which he hasn't, you're the idiot.

main thing is to try & figure his 3k flat speed currently

experience tells me, this looks reasonable

52.25 / 1'50.25 ->

3'36.5

7'34.6

13'04.1

most SCers have 25 - 30s differential based on technique

which woud indicate

7'59.6 - 8'04.6

at present

he coud go very close to 8'00 in his current shape, but obviously, getting to 7'30 on the flat is vital in next 2 - 3y

Giddy wrote:

This thread is pretty amusing simply from the fact that most world class steeplers do are horrible hurdlers.

Evan is a perfect steeple chase competitor simply from a height and athletic standpoint... but while watching the race he broke the American record, you'll notice one constant that is the same among every athlete, especially the Africans... none of them hurdle.

They all just get over the barrier. All of them "Jump" the barrier. With Evan's height, it isn't that hard to learn how to hurdle properly and flatten the trail leg.

To the OP, yes, he can break 8. If anyone thinks he can't, you're and idiot... the better question is, if he, along with half of Africa, didn't wast so much time jumping the barrier instead of hurdling it, could he run 7:55. I think yes.

You're an idiot*