Honestly, I think he can do it. With the amount of times he's run the steeple and how quickly he is progressing, I think taking 6 more seconds off is very possible for him, especially since he's still only 23...gives him probably 4 or 5 more years of very high level running, until his speed starts to decline and by then he will probably have moved up in distance and be back to a 5k/occasional 10k guy. I could see him in the end with maybe a high 7:58/low 7:59 PR.
Definitely
It's a mere formality for The Natural.
No. Absolutely not. Though he has run the event 5 times, and only for the past 3-4 months, and recently dropped from 8:16 to 8:06, it will be impossible for him to drop those remaining 6-7 seconds during the remainder of his career.
I could see 8:00:01, or possibly even 8:00:00 if everything goes perfectly. But sub-8:00? Impossible.
He can go sub 8 without much trouble in the next few years. By Rio he should really be looking at being in 7:55 shape and winning a gold medal.
Simons15 wrote: I could see him in the end with maybe a high 7:58/low 7:59 PR.
You folks are amazing. Based on a few races you can peg his ultimate potential to within a range of less than one second 7:58.6 - 7:59.4. You folks are truly incredible.
Stupid question. A better one would be, can he medal?
It's possible that he will get injured and never be in this kind of shape again. But he surely has more than a few seconds improvement left in him. 12:46/26:39 are the comparable IAAF points for a 7:59.9 steeple. That's a steep task.
I've never heard of Evan Jager.
I think it is possible but the Steeple is an unforgiving event. In 1976 a very young Frank Baumgartel of East Germany (I know they were all druggies) was leading the Olympic final when he hit the last barrier with his knee and to the best of my knowledge never ran close to 8:10 again. In fact I am not sure he ever RAN again! My point is injuries from this event can possibly end your career prematurely.
I thought his form had a lot to do with his success? He is able to save more energy over the barriers despite being in worse shape than other steeplers?
But could Evan Jager beat David Rudisha in a 400 meter hurdles race?
That's the question, Jimmy .....
I'd bet no. Most often when a distance AR is broken, no matter the runner's age, it's career-defining & he doesn't rebreak his own record later. On top of it, we're talking a big 'rebreak' here.
If the Kenyans go out hard in Olympic steeplechase final, Jager could come close to 8:00 in that race.
he runs 75 mpw. (see recent interview on flotrack).
your answer? yes. without a doubt if jerry raises him up right.
ttc wrote:
I'd bet no. Most often when a distance AR is broken, no matter the runner's age, it's career-defining & he doesn't rebreak his own record later.
That, like most things you say, would be easy to disprove.
ttc wrote:
I'd bet no. Most often when a distance AR is broken, no matter the runner's age, it's career-defining & he doesn't rebreak his own record later. On top of it, we're talking a big 'rebreak' here.
Hey, remember when Lagat kept breaking his own records after getting the American Record?
Seyta wrote:
Hey, remember when Lagat kept breaking his own records after getting the American Record?
Lagat hasn't broken his 1500 AR in 6 years.
ttc wrote:
I'd bet no. Most often when a distance AR is broken, no matter the runner's age, it's career-defining & he doesn't rebreak his own record later. On top of it, we're talking a big 'rebreak' here.
Most people aren't breaking records at 15 years old or however old Jager is. He's got plenty of time to improve. He very well might run faster THIS season.
Henry Rono set the steeplechase WR in 1978 with a time of 8:05.4.
That record lasted until 1992 when Mose Kiptanui ran 8:02.08.
He first ran 7:59 in 1995.
Kiptanui ultimately lowered his PR to 7:56.16 in 1997.
10 people have ever run under 8:00.
Odds are long for Jager.
But they are long for anyone.