Besides an almanac, a topographical map would be useful as well. But here's the decisive point: no one could possibly have predicted more than one medalist--if even that--for the marathon in the last three Olympics. However, the 10,000 is a very different case. If one doubts this, well, I'm picking Bekele to medal at 10,000. Any doubters? Who is as certain in the marathon? Indeed, my guess is that the odds are that if I give even the most knowledgable of experts six men to pick for three medals, that at most, one man would come through (in fact, LETSRUN should conduct such a contest). In the 10,000, at best Meb gets sixth, behind three Ethiopians and two Kenyans--at best. Now, if Ritz comes in the top ten, that's great because of his age, but for Meb--no. His time is now, and his best shot for a medal is in the marathon; however, even this is a long shot, because given the heat, humidity, smog, and hilly condition of the course, everyone is a long shot.
chuck d wrote:
i suggest you consult an almanac before comparing london in april to athens in august.