Men's Indoor 3000 World Record Under Threat Saturday @ Millrose

Great analysis but one mistake. COLE MF HOCKER will win with a new WR!! GOLD > 2x Bronze

As a US distance fan, wouldn't mind seeing that at all.

However, Cole has to make up at least 2 seconds on Grant based upon their 8:03 to 8:05 finishes at last year's Millrose 2 Mile.

If they're near each other on the final lap, of course Cole will outkick Grant regardless of how good Grant looked today.

However, that's not the question.

Rather, will Cole be able to hang with the lead pack when Grant takes over and squeezes the pace once the rabbit peels off?

Do I believe both will break Nuguse's 7:28.24 indoor AR? Yes, I do.

And lead one or two more under 7:30.

Wanamaker Miles deservedly receive their hype and publicity. But, like last year's 2 mile, this year's M 3000 will capture it's fair share of attention.

Grant cannot do it. Hocker cannot do it. So good sensational thread but it won’t happen. Neither has what it takes.

Add the just-announced $25,000 bonus for breaking a world record as another reason for Grant/Cole wanting o go for it.

The bonus announcement also implies the requested pace will likely be 29-30 sec/lap = sub-7:30.

And, consider this: George Mills just ran 7:27-high. You won't find a track-knowledgeable person on Earth who believes Mills is better that Fisher -- and possibly Hocker -- over 3000.

Not saying at all the WR is going down on Saturday.

However, now strongly believe they are going to give it a shot.

Don't forget Cole Hocker is in the race too. Kerr outkicked Fisher last year in the 2 mile to break the record, and Hocker beat him at the Olympics. Of course, Hocker was 2s back of Grant, but Hocker was coming in with a huge kick, and he'd never run anything CLOSE to that fast for 3k/2m. If he'd gone with Kerr/Grant instead of running in no mans land, I think he probably outkicks Fisher. That's speculation of course, but now that he's an Olympic champ with an 8:05 2m pb, I don't think he'll hesitate to do exactly what Kerr did last year: Hop right into Fisher's crack until a lap or two to go, and then blast it.

And since Hocker is in the race, and Fisher just ran a 1500 pb that's 6s slower than Hocker's (still fantastic for him btw), and Hocker has the verifiable greatest kick in history, Fisher knows he's gotta run the kick out of him. For that reason, I think the record goes down, although I think it could go either way, or maybe they even both go under.

And Nuguse and Kerr are racing the mile too, right? Could see the 3k and mile WRs go down in the same hour.

Nah, Hocker isn't due to be in top form again until 2028.

Those are the best case scenarios.

Once NBIGP concluded and focused turned to Millrose, this is what I realized may very well be in store for the t&f public. Thus, this thread.

Has there ever been 2 or more distance WRs set In the same indoor meet - including WICs and Euros?

Yaa. Birmingham 1992. Liz Mccolgan 15:01 and Morceli 2:15.2.

7:23 is really fast. Especially in February. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think they'll be that close to the record

Of course you’re right but you will get downvoted because they cannot handle the truth.

Cole Hocker will lose. Grant Fisher is in phenomenal shape. He won’t lose.

Now, that's some memory; pre-internet, pre-social media; one of those meets where you wait a month to find out about it in T&F News

Is Kerr racing this one? Anyone know which races he is doing?

Something also newsworthy from NBIGP: Grant clarifying he will be targeting Woody's 12:51.61/5000 indoor AR @ David Hemery Valentine Invite two weekends from now.

Grant specifically mentioned 12:50. He's being coy; Bekele's indoor WR is 12:49.60 from 2004. (Note: Europe doesn't race the 5000 indoors anymore; thus, the reason why it's lasted for 21 years.) So, Grant wanting to break the AR means he wants to break the WR.

What does this have to do with this Saturday's Millrose 3000 race?

Grant's 3:33.99/1500 @ NBIGP averages out to 57.1/400.

If Grant runs a 12:49.00/5000 @ Valentine, that averages out to 61.5/400. Seems eminently doable, as Grant ran 12:51.84 = 61.6/400 Feb 2024 for his indoor pr -- and he's significantly better now.

Now, Lemecha Girma's 7:23.81/3000 WR = 59.18/400. Essentially a pace that is half-way between Grant's recent 1500 race and last year's indoor 5000 race.

Takaways : more than reasonable to believe Grant is currently capable of running 29.59/200 for 15 laps to approach or surpass 7:23.81. Even more reasonable to believe Grant can average 30.75/200 for 25 laps to approach or surpass 12:49.60.

"Submitted for your approval" is Rod Serling's opening line from his Twilight Zone series.

The following proposition may seem as if it's drawn from one of Rod's scripts:

Two Sundays from now, Grant will have broken two world records.

Submitted for your approval.

Kerr is racing Nuguse, et al, in the Wanamaker Mile to close out the meet.

Yared is the two-time champ. He has publicly stated he is targeting Kejelcha's 3:47.01/WR.

Given the announcement today of a $25,000 bonus for any WR set on Saturday, sure seems possible, leading to a parade of prs and national records.

Can't wait.

Grant Fisher will break the 5000m indoor world record but he will not break the indoor 3k record at this point. That 7:25 was outdoors and at the end of the season when he came back fresh and hungry off of an injury break and who knows what 1500m shape he was in then, so we can't take the second improvement from indoors and say that means he's that much more in shape now than when he ran 7:25. That he broke 3:34 indoors does suggest that running 7:23 outdoors this year is a good prediction.

Hocker hasn't demonstrated that he's in the kind of shape to come close to 7:23 this indoors yet. 2:50/2:18 is a good weekend's workout but not a predictor of a forthcoming world record.

But it is correct that Grant Fisher has every incentive to push the pace when the pacer drops out to break Hocker. If Kerr could dust Fisher on the kick in a 2M, Hocker can certainly do it, for he twice was crushing Kerr on the kick in Paris, the first time when Jakob cut him off, the second time when Jakob tried to cut Kerr off. Right now, however, Hocker is surely not race sharp enough to drop his 3k pr that much. My prediction: Fisher 7:25 for the win, Hocker 7:27 for second.

Beamish came from way back to almost nab Cole Hocker at last year's Millrose 2 mile.

Camera stayed with Kerr (and Fisher) since he was breaking the WR; but I really wanted to see the Hocker/Beamish battle

My only issue with the OP’s reasoning is that we don’t know what Grant’s training looked like surrounding the other 1500m races. He easily could have been in heavy training when he ran is previous 3:34s. I don’t know how those races played out. Maybe they were more tactical. As another poster said, he could have been in 3:32 shape when he ran 7:25. We just don’t know.

Cole is a better athlete than Grant in my book and far better over 1500/mile. Gold is indeed better than two Bronzes. That said, he is a notoriously slow starter (losing badly to Kerr in this race last year, losing to Beamish at World Indoors, living in Teare's shadow in 2021 until NCAAs). He may one day challenge a WR outdoors (or not, they're pretty tough) but I don't think he will ever be a record-setter indoors.