Times are nice but going all out for times is a good way to burn out even on fast, flat courses. Was eight seconds faster than Chelangat and that is a helpful frame of reference. Tuohy beat Chelangat by 12 seconds.
NcSt is looking vulnerable but they are still the slight favorite if Starliper runs. Hopefully was just a bad race for Seymour. Bush ran intelligently.
How long until Seymour drops a good one? Hopefully Henes 'selects the OK 7 with clear, cold eyes.
Times are nice but going all out for times is a good way to burn out even on fast, flat courses. Was eight seconds faster than Chelangat and that is a helpful frame of reference. Tuohy beat Chelangat by 12 seconds.
NcSt is looking vulnerable but they are still the slight favorite if Starliper runs. Hopefully was just a bad race for Seymour. Bush ran intelligently.
How long until Seymour drops a good one? Hopefully Henes 'selects the OK 7 with clear, cold eyes.
i think syd should run the way sam runs
syd likes to go up front with the leaders but thats not her strength, she should stick with sam all race like what she did at the joe piane invite race, she finished just behind sam after running sam's race tactic
hopefully coach henes and her figures that out and tries a different tactic
For some reason, some here can’t seem to get away from time comparisons of runners running on separate courses on separate days many miles apart.
Stillwater will sort out the argument. Valby is a consistent front-runner strategy-wise. A big question will be whether or not she can do so successfully with the second hill climb in the loop. Will the hills sap McCabe’s kick? If Valby chooses to front-run will that alter a Tuohy (and many others’) strategy? How will the Stillwater hills affect the NCSU 3, 4 and 5 runners wrt the team score (where they have shown some vulnerability)?
If Valby chooses to front-run will that alter a Tuohy (and many others’) strategy? How will the Stillwater hills affect the NCSU 3, 4 and 5 runners wrt the team score (where they have shown some vulnerability)?
Three weeks to go.
Valby will front run and then throw in some sprinting early (2-3k or so) in the race to build a gap and hold on. I think most will be more cautious and not go with her.
Been watching Valby for a couple years; front-running is routine for her, and has been for some time. The questions will be whether she will choose to do so on the Stillwater course (my bet is yes), and if she does so, will she last thru the second circuit with the kind of late race pressure she will get from several others in the race (not so sure about that).
I have not been watching Valby for years...really only since the NCAA 5000 last year. In fact, I don't recall ever seeing Valby's name brought up until a year ago when she was starting to be noticed for XC. But from watching her now....I believe she needs to front run...the question will be does she try to separate herself and really push the pace. If she does early, then she must believe that she can hold on through the hills. As opposed to her previous races, she will not drop the other frontrunners....She may get a little ahead, but Tuohy, McCabe, Roe, Chmiel, and Mercy are not going to give her much of a gap.
If Valby does win, she will certainly deserve all the accolades she receives....that is one a strong group of runners that will be right behind her.
My money is on Tuohy...this is her first year running NCAA XC while healthy, and I do believe she is on a mission. A healthy and motivated Tuohy is a nightmare for the rest of this field. I'm not saying she is unbeatable...but simply that every other runner has to be watching for her. If Valby takes off on her own, the others will likely keep her close but not necessarily feel the need to run with her. If Tuohy goes with Valby, or on her own, the other runners have to go. I expect it will be Tuohy and McCabe on that last hill...and then a sprint to the finish.
Been watching Valby for a couple years; front-running is routine for her, and has been for some time. The questions will be whether she will choose to do so on the Stillwater course (my bet is yes), and if she does so, will she last thru the second circuit with the kind of late race pressure she will get from several others in the race (not so sure about that).
I am a bit surprised Valby has not found a race with hills. Practicing going up and also down can help. The ACC course was perfect for NC State to practice on. While the rises were not quite as high as at OSU, they were as steep, and frequently a rise was quickly followed by a decline (or vice versa) so the runners had to adjust their stride frequently.
If she does early, then she must believe that she can hold on through the hills. As opposed to her previous races, she will not drop the other frontrunners....She may get a little ahead, but Tuohy, McCabe, Roe, Chmiel, and Mercy I'm not saying she is unbeatable...but simply that every other runner has to be watching for her. If Valby takes off on her own, the others will likely keep her close but not necessarily feel the need to run with her. If Tuohy goes with Valby, or on her own, the other runners have to go. I expect it will be Tuohy and McCabe on that last hill...and then a sprint to the finish.
In your scenario, Valby definitely could play the spoiler. She takes it out and plays chicken with Tuohy. Neither end up winning. That scenario could also cost NCState the title.
If she does early, then she must believe that she can hold on through the hills. As opposed to her previous races, she will not drop the other frontrunners....She may get a little ahead, but Tuohy, McCabe, Roe, Chmiel, and Mercy I'm not saying she is unbeatable...but simply that every other runner has to be watching for her. If Valby takes off on her own, the others will likely keep her close but not necessarily feel the need to run with her. If Tuohy goes with Valby, or on her own, the other runners have to go. I expect it will be Tuohy and McCabe on that last hill...and then a sprint to the finish.
In your scenario, Valby definitely could play the spoiler. She takes it out and plays chicken with Tuohy. Neither end up winning. That scenario could also cost NCState the title.
This is exactly the scenario I had posed a while back. If Valby goes out really fast do those on teams go with her and risk blowing up, or do they play Mantz/Wildschutt to the Valby Kiptoo?
Agreed. If Valby and Tuohy get into a speed duel early that opens the door. So you either have to give Valby a gap or risk getting rabbited. I think you have to stay with her. A good closer like McCabe could definitely benefit.
I think you have to go with her. But it is always a risk. You cannot expect her to implode.
I thought Notre Dame had an interesting strategy at ACCs that kind of reminded me of rabbiting. Their top two shot out really fast and built a gap before Tuohy decided to close it down. Not sure if that was a coach's strategy, but I think the coach did not want to let NCSt sit and kick and run at a steady pace behind Tuohy like the have, so ND wanted to try to blow the race up as a team strategy.
Bama should be thinking team title, instead of a win for Chelangat.
Same with the Okies.
Eye the prey, and feast on the late-stage carnage.
I agree but esp for AL I think their 5th runner will score way too many points...but even OSU as well unless a bunch of other runners all blow up. NM is the team that will likely start slower and then drop a bunch of points over the 2nd 3K.
My latest guess after Conference meets. Team Score New Mexico 102 5 between 15 and 30 NC State 105 Oklahoma State 145 despite 3 in top 15 Alabama 182 despite 3 in top 20 Northern Arizona 259 Notre Dame 265 Stanford 312 BYU 329 Colorado 336 Oregon 351
My latest guess after Conference meets. Team Score New Mexico 102 5 between 15 and 30 NC State 105 Oklahoma State 145 despite 3 in top 15 Alabama 182 despite 3 in top 20 Northern Arizona 259 Notre Dame 265 Stanford 312 BYU 329 Colorado 336 Oregon 351
Good point on Alabama’s 5th; consequently favor’s Chelangat stalking Tuohy>>Valby to try and win it all.
Your team lineup shows just how close teams 1 & 2 are. How many points did you give Tuohy in that analysis?
Katelyn has a very good teammate that runs very well. Yet no one seems to be chatting her up. Kelsey Chmiel has-been leading and gathering points. I must admit I haven't seen a lot of the different colleges. But I believe Tuohy is going to have her championship this year and Chmiel's performance should help get the team win. Trophy is healthy and likes the hills. A hilly course and her positive attitude is going to be the difference.