Thanks for your response.
If Mu shows up in 1:55 form, of course she’ll medal barring a fall or something. If training or health hasn’t been great for any reason and she shows up in 1:57 shape, then of course there’s a chance that she goes with Moraa or Hodgkinson en route to a stellar 1:56.0 or whatever, starts losing ground with 100 to go and doesn’t handle that well mentally, getting passed by any combination of Moraa/Hodgkinson/Wilson/Rogers/Welteji/X and “going home devastated”. Nobody expected Halimah Nakaayi to win in Doha. There could always be surprises. 72% is quite high and I don’t think any athlete on the track has higher than ~80% chance for a medal, all things considered.
It’s easy to say Rogers was racing Reekie for bronze in hindsight. Going into the Olympics, Almanza had run 1:56 twice, Goule had run 1:56, Getachew had run 1:56, Reekie had run 1:56–all those times would be the world lead so far this year. I like Rogers at 40% because she’s proven herself in global championships, and the meet being in Eugene should only help her.
We’ll have to disagree on Johnson and Teare. Personally I think the women’s medals look more locked up between Kipyegon/Tsegay/Meshesha/Muir than the men’s medals.
I think Cranny and Schweizer combined having greater than 50/50 medal odds in the 5k is too high, but you know that. Are you sure Obiri is not doubling? She was set to as of 2 weeks ago:
Regardless, my money is on an Ethiopian sweep in that event: Seyaum, Gidey, Taye.