Here is my unfinished, abandoned ranking of American middle and long distance medal chances:
Athing Mu - Women’s 800 - 72% The Olympic champion’s estimated medal chances are actually slightly down from last year (75%), as she didn’t look dominating at USAs, hasn’t yet broken 1:57–and due to the emergence of Kenya’s Mary Moraa as a gold medal contender. Still, she’s the gold medal favorite and it would be a major surprise to see her finish outside the top 3.
Ajee Wilson - Women’s 800 - 40% Up from 35% prior to the Olympics last year, when she’d barely made the U.S. team and failed to make the OG final. She looked great at USAs, almost upsetting Mu and running 1:57.23, her fastest time since 2018. I’d put her slightly behind Moraa and Hodgkinson as far as medal chances, but she’s got WC bronze medals from 2017 and 2019 and it would be no surprise at all if she adds another in 2 weeks.
Raevyn Rogers - Women’s 800 - 40% She knows how to peak, having won medals in both of the last two global championships, including running a 1:56.81 PB for bronze in Tokyo. I gave her a 50% chance last year, but I think this season looks a bit tougher for earning hardware, and she’ll have to position herself closer to the front than she did at USAs to have a shot.
Emma Coburn - Women’s Steeplechase - 25% - Last year I gave her a 55% chance, #2 on the list behind Mu, but she had a disappointing final that saw her get dropped and ultimately DQ’d. Prior to that, she had won medals at the previous 3 global championships—2016, 2017, 2019–including the gold in 2017. She was lackluster at Pre but appears to be rounding into form with a 4:04 1500 and 9:10 to win USAs in June. Yavi and Jeruto should be fighting for the gold, and the Ethiopians could be a force, but Coburn has a chance for yet another medal.
Grant Fisher - Men’s 10k - 20% I worry this could be too high, but who knows, maybe it’s too low? The man ran 26:33 (#7 performer all-time) this year, as well as 12:53i with a 4:59 final 2k, and beat Olympic 5k silver medalist Moh Ahmed in both races. The 10k at Worlds isn’t as deep as the 5k, but between Barega/Aregawi/Cheptegei/Kiplimo, a medal could be hard to come by.
Donavan Brazier - Men’s 800 - 20% Maybe I’m getting soft in my old age now that I’m 30, giving him 20% chance when he hasn’t done anything to prove his fitness since running 46.14i/1:13.97i way back in February. But that 1:13.97i is no joke, and we know that if healthy Brazier is in contention for the most talented 800m man in the world. How great would it be to see him run 1:43 for a medal?
Galen Rupp - Men’s Marathon - 20% 8th in last year’s Olympic marathon before rebounding somewhat for 2nd at (a relatively non competitive) Chicago in 2:06:35. Since then, he was 7th at the US 15k Championships and DNF’d the NYC Half, yelling an expletive as an injury flared up, not exactly inspiring confidence. Still, he says he’s ready, he has global championship medals,and this is basically it for him, man—36 years old, in HIS town, do or die.
Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 10k - 17% She’s looked much better than her pre-surgery form of last year, running sub-15 for the second half of the U.S. 10k to beat Monson (who has since run 14:31 in Oslo), clocking 4:00.75, nearly placing top-3 at the USA 1500 before contending for the win in the USA 5k (and being the one to make the race in the last 2k). Gidey, Obiri, Taye et al will make medaling difficult, but bronze is not an impossible outcome.
Courtney Frerichs - Women’s Steeplechase - 15% I gave her 10% chance of medaling last year, which in hindsight (silver medal) looks like a mistake. She now has two global championship silvers to her name, but has not looked like a medalist so far this season, and was a clear 3rd behind Coburn and Wayment at USAs.
Bryce Hoppel - Men’s 800 - 15% The U.S. Champion hasn’t really excited since indoors 2021, but he could be timing his peak well, and the men’s 800 seems like a total crapshoot this season.
Cooper Teare - Men’s 1500 - 13% How good really is Cooper Teare at this point? This year the 22 year old has run a 3:50.17i mile, 13:06 with a big finish in pouring rain, and a 51.xx last 400 weaving lanes to win USAs in a tactical race that seemingly shouldn’t suit him. He was just 6th in 3:51.7 in the Bowerman Mile, but only about a second from Ollie Hoare in 2nd. I expect Teare to make the final, and with Cheruiyot and Kerr looking a step back from last year, and Kipsang potentially over-raced, if he gets a clean tactical run I wouldn’t be shocked to see Teare snag bronze.
Sara Hall - Women’s Marathon - 12% The 39 year old vet ran 2:22:56 for 8th in Tokyo this March, but that race was likely more competitive than the WC Marathon will be. She’s plenty experienced, having placed 2nd at the 2020 London Marathon in 2:22:01. The East Africans have had a bad habit of DNF’ing championship marathons recently, and American women have taken medals in the event in both Tokyo ‘21 and London ‘17.
Keira D’Amato - Women’s Marathon - 12% The 37 year old has run more impressively than Hall so far this year, highlighted of course by her 2:19:12 AR win in Houston in January; she’s also run well in a pair of road 10ks in June. Working against her is a lack of proven results in championships or WMMs and, more importantly, that she did not know she’d be running this race until Molly Seidel dropped out.
Elise Cranny - Women’s 5k - 11%
Sinclaire Johnson - Women’s 1500 - 9%
Grant Fisher - Men’s 5k - 9%
Elle Purrier-St. Pierre - Women’s 1500 - 9%
Alicia Monson - Women’s 10k - 9%
Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 5k - 8%
Emma Bates - Women’s Marathon - 7%
Hillary Bor - Men’s Steeplechase - 5%
Courtney Wayment - Women’s Steeplechase - 5%
Evan Jager - Men’s Steeplechase - 4%
Woody Kincaid - Men’s 5k - 4%
Joe Klecker - Men’s 10k - 4%
Elkanah Kibet - Men’s Marathon - 2%
Cory McGee - Women’s 1500 - 2%
Brandon Miller - Men’s 800 - 2%
Emily Infeld - Women’s 5k - 2%
Jonah Koech - Men’s 800 - 1% - He was a regular 1:46-1:47 performer until this year, never making it as a true NCAA star, and it took a real breakthrough for him to make the U.S. team. A global medal would be shocking, but the fact that his best is his latest and the wide open nature of the event this season makes him the top of the one-percenters.
Benard Keter - Men’s Steeplechase - 1%
Josh Thompson - Men’s 1500 - 1%
Abdihamid Nur - Men’s 5k - 1% The men’s 5k is the most competitive event of this year’s WCs, with 10-12 strong medal contenders. Nur is not one of him, and making the final would be a great success.
Johnny Gregorek - Men’s 1500 - 1% I would kill to run as fast as him but he’s the very definition of a middling elite runner. I’ll be quite surprised if he makes the final. He’s an eighth place semi finalist if ever I saw one.
Sean McGorty - Men’s 10k - 1% He looked virtually on par with Fisher in early 2021 so this may be a bad take, but I think he got very lucky that the U.S. 10k was a crawl. Certainly, I don’t think he’s on the same level as Fisher or Klecker at this distance…American sweep, baby!
Natosha Rogers - Women’s 10k - 1% Good on her for making the team, but she wasn’t really in the same race as Schweizer and Monson at the US Championship. Her 31:12 PB is 2:11 slower than Gidey’s WR—it’s actually 1:24 slower than Gidey’s half marathon WR pace per 10k.
Colin Mickow - Men’s Marathon - 1% His only result this year is 1:01:41 for 13th in the Houston half. When he ran his 2:11:22 PB he placed 12th in an American field. Frankly, being the second best American marathoner named Colin does nothing for your chances of winning a global medal.
That 4% is looking pretty generous though.