In LRC’s preview, which Gault wrote (?) they said Joe Klecker has no chance to medal in the worlds 10k. WRONG! He has a huge chance!
(1) he WON the trials
(2) have you seen his training on Strava lately? It’s SUPER FAST
WRONG ROJO! You’re just wrong!
I could see him taking a big step forward and finishing in the 5th-10th range. But a medal in such a stacked field seems very unlikely. I wouldn't that chance was zero, but maybe 1%-5%.
Klecker will 100% be top 10, good chance for top 6, but top 3 is a no.
He has been simlating heat conditions for a while now. And he is quite fit right now. Chances are he'd do better than people think. Plus Ritz "creative training" seem to be working quite well for everyone in that group
There's no way the 10,000 is going to be slow. I expect negative split, and final 1600 of 4 min flat to win. I think Fisher has a chance to medal for sure.
I'll eat my shoes if he is top 10.
sbeefyk2 wrote:
I'll eat my shoes if he is top 10.
I hope they're not big shoes because he is 95% in the top 10.
I got him at 60% chance for a top 5.
20% chance at medal.
He can go 26:50 if he has to and he can close a 27 flat extremely well.
Here is my unfinished, abandoned ranking of American middle and long distance medal chances:
Athing Mu - Women’s 800 - 72% The Olympic champion’s estimated medal chances are actually slightly down from last year (75%), as she didn’t look dominating at USAs, hasn’t yet broken 1:57–and due to the emergence of Kenya’s Mary Moraa as a gold medal contender. Still, she’s the gold medal favorite and it would be a major surprise to see her finish outside the top 3.
Ajee Wilson - Women’s 800 - 40% Up from 35% prior to the Olympics last year, when she’d barely made the U.S. team and failed to make the OG final. She looked great at USAs, almost upsetting Mu and running 1:57.23, her fastest time since 2018. I’d put her slightly behind Moraa and Hodgkinson as far as medal chances, but she’s got WC bronze medals from 2017 and 2019 and it would be no surprise at all if she adds another in 2 weeks.
Raevyn Rogers - Women’s 800 - 40% She knows how to peak, having won medals in both of the last two global championships, including running a 1:56.81 PB for bronze in Tokyo. I gave her a 50% chance last year, but I think this season looks a bit tougher for earning hardware, and she’ll have to position herself closer to the front than she did at USAs to have a shot.
Emma Coburn - Women’s Steeplechase - 25% - Last year I gave her a 55% chance, #2 on the list behind Mu, but she had a disappointing final that saw her get dropped and ultimately DQ’d. Prior to that, she had won medals at the previous 3 global championships—2016, 2017, 2019–including the gold in 2017. She was lackluster at Pre but appears to be rounding into form with a 4:04 1500 and 9:10 to win USAs in June. Yavi and Jeruto should be fighting for the gold, and the Ethiopians could be a force, but Coburn has a chance for yet another medal.
Grant Fisher - Men’s 10k - 20% I worry this could be too high, but who knows, maybe it’s too low? The man ran 26:33 (#7 performer all-time) this year, as well as 12:53i with a 4:59 final 2k, and beat Olympic 5k silver medalist Moh Ahmed in both races. The 10k at Worlds isn’t as deep as the 5k, but between Barega/Aregawi/Cheptegei/Kiplimo, a medal could be hard to come by.
Donavan Brazier - Men’s 800 - 20% Maybe I’m getting soft in my old age now that I’m 30, giving him 20% chance when he hasn’t done anything to prove his fitness since running 46.14i/1:13.97i way back in February. But that 1:13.97i is no joke, and we know that if healthy Brazier is in contention for the most talented 800m man in the world. How great would it be to see him run 1:43 for a medal?
Galen Rupp - Men’s Marathon - 20% 8th in last year’s Olympic marathon before rebounding somewhat for 2nd at (a relatively non competitive) Chicago in 2:06:35. Since then, he was 7th at the US 15k Championships and DNF’d the NYC Half, yelling an expletive as an injury flared up, not exactly inspiring confidence. Still, he says he’s ready, he has global championship medals,and this is basically it for him, man—36 years old, in HIS town, do or die.
Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 10k - 17% She’s looked much better than her pre-surgery form of last year, running sub-15 for the second half of the U.S. 10k to beat Monson (who has since run 14:31 in Oslo), clocking 4:00.75, nearly placing top-3 at the USA 1500 before contending for the win in the USA 5k (and being the one to make the race in the last 2k). Gidey, Obiri, Taye et al will make medaling difficult, but bronze is not an impossible outcome.
Courtney Frerichs - Women’s Steeplechase - 15% I gave her 10% chance of medaling last year, which in hindsight (silver medal) looks like a mistake. She now has two global championship silvers to her name, but has not looked like a medalist so far this season, and was a clear 3rd behind Coburn and Wayment at USAs.
Bryce Hoppel - Men’s 800 - 15% The U.S. Champion hasn’t really excited since indoors 2021, but he could be timing his peak well, and the men’s 800 seems like a total crapshoot this season.
Cooper Teare - Men’s 1500 - 13% How good really is Cooper Teare at this point? This year the 22 year old has run a 3:50.17i mile, 13:06 with a big finish in pouring rain, and a 51.xx last 400 weaving lanes to win USAs in a tactical race that seemingly shouldn’t suit him. He was just 6th in 3:51.7 in the Bowerman Mile, but only about a second from Ollie Hoare in 2nd. I expect Teare to make the final, and with Cheruiyot and Kerr looking a step back from last year, and Kipsang potentially over-raced, if he gets a clean tactical run I wouldn’t be shocked to see Teare snag bronze.
Sara Hall - Women’s Marathon - 12% The 39 year old vet ran 2:22:56 for 8th in Tokyo this March, but that race was likely more competitive than the WC Marathon will be. She’s plenty experienced, having placed 2nd at the 2020 London Marathon in 2:22:01. The East Africans have had a bad habit of DNF’ing championship marathons recently, and American women have taken medals in the event in both Tokyo ‘21 and London ‘17.
Keira D’Amato - Women’s Marathon - 12% The 37 year old has run more impressively than Hall so far this year, highlighted of course by her 2:19:12 AR win in Houston in January; she’s also run well in a pair of road 10ks in June. Working against her is a lack of proven results in championships or WMMs and, more importantly, that she did not know she’d be running this race until Molly Seidel dropped out.
Elise Cranny - Women’s 5k - 11%
Sinclaire Johnson - Women’s 1500 - 9%
Grant Fisher - Men’s 5k - 9%
Elle Purrier-St. Pierre - Women’s 1500 - 9%
Alicia Monson - Women’s 10k - 9%
Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 5k - 8%
Emma Bates - Women’s Marathon - 7%
Hillary Bor - Men’s Steeplechase - 5%
Courtney Wayment - Women’s Steeplechase - 5%
Evan Jager - Men’s Steeplechase - 4%
Woody Kincaid - Men’s 5k - 4%
Joe Klecker - Men’s 10k - 4%
Elkanah Kibet - Men’s Marathon - 2%
Cory McGee - Women’s 1500 - 2%
Brandon Miller - Men’s 800 - 2%
Emily Infeld - Women’s 5k - 2%
Jonah Koech - Men’s 800 - 1% - He was a regular 1:46-1:47 performer until this year, never making it as a true NCAA star, and it took a real breakthrough for him to make the U.S. team. A global medal would be shocking, but the fact that his best is his latest and the wide open nature of the event this season makes him the top of the one-percenters.
Benard Keter - Men’s Steeplechase - 1%
Josh Thompson - Men’s 1500 - 1%
Abdihamid Nur - Men’s 5k - 1% The men’s 5k is the most competitive event of this year’s WCs, with 10-12 strong medal contenders. Nur is not one of him, and making the final would be a great success.
Johnny Gregorek - Men’s 1500 - 1% I would kill to run as fast as him but he’s the very definition of a middling elite runner. I’ll be quite surprised if he makes the final. He’s an eighth place semi finalist if ever I saw one.
Sean McGorty - Men’s 10k - 1% He looked virtually on par with Fisher in early 2021 so this may be a bad take, but I think he got very lucky that the U.S. 10k was a crawl. Certainly, I don’t think he’s on the same level as Fisher or Klecker at this distance…American sweep, baby!
Natosha Rogers - Women’s 10k - 1% Good on her for making the team, but she wasn’t really in the same race as Schweizer and Monson at the US Championship. Her 31:12 PB is 2:11 slower than Gidey’s WR—it’s actually 1:24 slower than Gidey’s half marathon WR pace per 10k.
Colin Mickow - Men’s Marathon - 1% His only result this year is 1:01:41 for 13th in the Houston half. When he ran his 2:11:22 PB he placed 12th in an American field. Frankly, being the second best American marathoner named Colin does nothing for your chances of winning a global medal.
That 4% is looking pretty generous though.
KAV wrote:
He has been simlating heat conditions for a while now. And he is quite fit right now. Chances are he'd do better than people think. Plus Ritz "creative training" seem to be working quite well for everyone in that group
1) everyone else in the world champs 10k final is “quite fit”
2) you must not have watched how he matched up to international competition in his recent DL 5k
Klecker's not racing Grand Fisher in the World Championships. He's racing guys like Barega and Cheptegei. Guys who can not only run fast times but can finish fast. Faster than Fisher. Faster than Klecker. Very little medal chance. If he finished top 10 that would be a win.
top 10 contender at best
The OAC guys and women are really easy to root for. They engage well with fans and are clearly progressing quickly. But as much as I like them, Klecker has no chance of a medal. I think a realistic and good target for him is to be the best of the rest. He should be racing with people like Gressier, McGorty, and Rayner to try and get up into 7th/8th. No matter how fast or slow this race is, the winner, as Mo Farah said, will need to run the last KM in 2:25 and I don't think Klecker can do that even in a 5k.
This is a weatherman prediction. "Chance of." Even if he DNFs you can still claim your "chance" prediction was right. We'd all love to see Joe or Grant medal. Hard to see Joe in the top five, but a top 8 within ten seconds of the winner would be fantastic.
Is the OP Sage Hurta?
Some unsolicited thoughts JWH:
72% seems low for Mu. Yes, it's possible to see her not winning, but not getting top 3? Even though this year is deeper/better, even on a bad day it's hard to picture her losing to more than 2 athletes.
40% is high for Rogers for me. Her competition for 3rd last year was Jemma Reekie, this year it's 2 of Moraa, Keely or Ajee. All 3 of those are much better than '21 Reekie and they finish better/run smarter typically. I don't think sandbagging for the last 70 is going to work for her this time. I'd put her at more like 25%. 4th or 5th place feels likely.
20% for Brazier I think you are self-diagnosing correctly, but this number should be more like 5-10%. He's the definition of a dark horse. It's hard to fake fitness/form over 3 races. This is a long shot even with his talent.
Sinclaire at 9% feels low to me. I'd put her in the 15% range. She has a huge kick, and it's not like we have to look far for championships where Muir came in a little below form and then didn't execute. If she runs an aggressive Muir race tracking Tsegay/Kipyegon, it will be Sinclaire. vs the Ethiopians/St. Pierre/Hull kicking her down. Sinclaire has a special kick that separates her IMO.
Teare at 13% is way too high, and you know I like Teare. I just think the gap from Jakob, Kipsang, Tim and Hoare is pretty large (these are guys who can run 3:28-3:30). Wightman, Kerr (dubious this year), McSweyn and Tefera could potentially be in that group. I think Teare would need a ton of things to happen to be kicking for 3rd as opposed to 6th or 7th in the final (if he even makes it). I'd put him at about 5%.
Cranny/Schweizer in the 5K - Just feels like they should be higher to me and in the the 25% range? I'd put the combined duo at over 50%. Hassan is a big X factor, but ultimately the Kenyan team is weak (no Obiri, and the Kenyan Trials winner isn't running likely due to tests). Cranny will be fresh here, Taye/Gidey are going to be tired from grueling podium efforts in the 10K IMO. They aren't big kickers to begin with in a 5,000. So what are we really looking at? Sayaum will be hard to beat and Hassan might be. The Ethiopians have fancy PBs, but they'll be fatigued and they'll have to drive the pace.
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Some unsolicited thoughts JWH:
72% seems low for Mu. Yes, it's possible to see her not winning, but not getting top 3? Even though this year is deeper/better, even on a bad day it's hard to picture her losing to more than 2 athletes.
40% is high for Rogers for me. Her competition for 3rd last year was Jemma Reekie, this year it's 2 of Moraa, Keely or Ajee. All 3 of those are much better than '21 Reekie and they finish better/run smarter typically. I don't think sandbagging for the last 70 is going to work for her this time. I'd put her at more like 25%. 4th or 5th place feels likely.
20% for Brazier I think you are self-diagnosing correctly, but this number should be more like 5-10%. He's the definition of a dark horse. It's hard to fake fitness/form over 3 races. This is a long shot even with his talent.
Sinclaire at 9% feels low to me. I'd put her in the 15% range. She has a huge kick, and it's not like we have to look far for championships where Muir came in a little below form and then didn't execute. If she runs an aggressive Muir race tracking Tsegay/Kipyegon, it will be Sinclaire. vs the Ethiopians/St. Pierre/Hull kicking her down. Sinclaire has a special kick that separates her IMO.
Teare at 13% is way too high, and you know I like Teare. I just think the gap from Jakob, Kipsang, Tim and Hoare is pretty large (these are guys who can run 3:28-3:30). Wightman, Kerr (dubious this year), McSweyn and Tefera could potentially be in that group. I think Teare would need a ton of things to happen to be kicking for 3rd as opposed to 6th or 7th in the final (if he even makes it). I'd put him at about 5%.
Cranny/Schweizer in the 5K - Just feels like they should be higher to me and in the the 25% range? I'd put the combined duo at over 50%. Hassan is a big X factor, but ultimately the Kenyan team is weak (no Obiri, and the Kenyan Trials winner isn't running likely due to tests). Cranny will be fresh here, Taye/Gidey are going to be tired from grueling podium efforts in the 10K IMO. They aren't big kickers to begin with in a 5,000. So what are we really looking at? Sayaum will be hard to beat and Hassan might be. The Ethiopians have fancy PBs, but they'll be fatigued and they'll have to drive the pace.
Thanks for your response.
If Mu shows up in 1:55 form, of course she’ll medal barring a fall or something. If training or health hasn’t been great for any reason and she shows up in 1:57 shape, then of course there’s a chance that she goes with Moraa or Hodgkinson en route to a stellar 1:56.0 or whatever, starts losing ground with 100 to go and doesn’t handle that well mentally, getting passed by any combination of Moraa/Hodgkinson/Wilson/Rogers/Welteji/X and “going home devastated”. Nobody expected Halimah Nakaayi to win in Doha. There could always be surprises. 72% is quite high and I don’t think any athlete on the track has higher than ~80% chance for a medal, all things considered.
It’s easy to say Rogers was racing Reekie for bronze in hindsight. Going into the Olympics, Almanza had run 1:56 twice, Goule had run 1:56, Getachew had run 1:56, Reekie had run 1:56–all those times would be the world lead so far this year. I like Rogers at 40% because she’s proven herself in global championships, and the meet being in Eugene should only help her.
We’ll have to disagree on Johnson and Teare. Personally I think the women’s medals look more locked up between Kipyegon/Tsegay/Meshesha/Muir than the men’s medals.
Regardless, my money is on an Ethiopian sweep in that event: Seyaum, Gidey, Taye.
The OP isn't right, but I think both Grant and Joe will be with the leaders when the move is made. I just don't think there will be a high probability either will be able to cover it. Their chance to medal though will be if they can put themselves in position to catch the others if they die too hard trying to cover the move.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Here is my unfinished, abandoned ranking of American middle and long distance medal chances:
Athing Mu - Women’s 800 - 72% The Olympic champion’s estimated medal chances are actually slightly down from last year (75%), as she didn’t look dominating at USAs, hasn’t yet broken 1:57–and due to the emergence of Kenya’s Mary Moraa as a gold medal contender. Still, she’s the gold medal favorite and it would be a major surprise to see her finish outside the top 3.
Just put up the betting guide. Mu is 80% not to medal but to WIN at the sports books.
Huge, huge favorite.
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