Who was the biggest winner at the Ethiopian Olympic Trials - Shelby Houlihan, Laura Muir or Evan Jager ?

So the absolute craziest thing I heard from someone who was at Hengelo this weekend (and today) was that Tseguy has asked the Ethiopian federation to send her to *double* the 1500 and the 5000, even though the rounds of the 1500 are the morning same day as the 5000m final. And that she ran trials 5000 to secure a spot in the 5000, and is arguing off the strength of her indoor WR that she should go in the 1500.

JoBros + Gault should do some digging on that. 10/10 thought the person was joking, but they weren't. If Ethiopia did okay it (I doubt they would - notoriously picky on doubling recently), it would have to be one of the most audacious doubles ever if she pulled it off.

This is a perfect example why track and field popularity will always lack.

We don't have true rivalries and competitors just look to dodge competition to win races with lackluster fields to declare themselves champions to the average person who doesn't understand track or who the world's best are.

Fans should be put first because without them the sport doesn't exist and professional runners are paid to compete to entertain (or impress) us so we are convinced to buy their sponsor gear and in turn they get paid. If athletes ever do unionize they need to have a contract that will force the world's best to compete with one another on a regular basis just like all other sports instead of once every 2 years at a major championship only.

MAGAtothebitterend wrote:

This is a perfect example why track and field popularity will always lack.

We don't have true rivalries and competitors just look to dodge competition to win races with lackluster fields to declare themselves champions to the average person who doesn't understand track or who the world's best are.

Fans should be put first because without them the sport doesn't exist and professional runners are paid to compete to entertain (or impress) us so we are convinced to buy their sponsor gear and in turn they get paid. If athletes ever do unionize they need to have a contract that will force the world's best to compete with one another on a regular basis just like all other sports instead of once every 2 years at a major championship only.

This is an underwhelming take. The women's 1500/5000/10000 are all guaranteed to be stacked at Doha so long as people stay healthy. Like how is Tseguy dodging competition by doing the 5000? Imagine a universe where choosing to likely race against Hellen Obiri and Sifan Hassan is "dodging." Likewise, Gidey v Hassan in the 10,000m is looking like a women's equivalent of Bekele vs Kipchoge at their peaks. Meanwhile in the women's 1500m, you would still have Faith Kipyegon, the fastest Kenyan ever and one of the all time tactical greats, vs. 1st, 2nd, and 7th fastest North Americans of all time (3:54, 3:56, 3:58), vs the #2 all time European (3:55), with people like Hailu also running 3:57.

Honestly, I do hope Tseguy does the 5000, and don't mind if Hassan doesn't do it because it spreads the talent a bit better. Otherwise you could have an even more ridiculous situation than Doha 2019 where women are running 3:58 and coming 9th.

As a long time fan of women's distance running, it would be a fair argument to say that the current crop of athletes is the deepest it has ever been.

agent adjacent wrote:

So the absolute craziest thing I heard from someone who was at Hengelo this weekend (and today) was that Tseguy has asked the Ethiopian federation to send her to *double* the 1500 and the 5000, even though the rounds of the 1500 are the morning same day as the 5000m final. And that she ran trials 5000 to secure a spot in the 5000, and is arguing off the strength of her indoor WR that she should go in the 1500.

JoBros + Gault should do some digging on that. 10/10 thought the person was joking, but they weren't. If Ethiopia did okay it (I doubt they would - notoriously picky on doubling recently), it would have to be one of the most audacious doubles ever if she pulled it off.

You think that's auspicious? I don't think it's hard at all. She could jog a 1500 prelim and make the semis.

She shoudl do the double. I don't even know why listed it as hard.

1500: Day 4, 9:35 a.m. (prelim); Day 6, 7:00 p.m. (semi); Day 8, 9:50 p.m. (final)

5000: Day 1, 7:00 p.m. (prelim); Day 4, 9:40 p.m. (final)

You have 12 hours between a 1500 and 5k prelim? Can someone tell me why USATF didn't make that double doable for Americans?

I feel like Kipyegon, Tsegay, Gidey and Hassan all deserve WRs but at least one of them won't get one. Tsegay seems most likely to miss out so if she doubles she at least coudl get a couple of medals to make up for it.

What do you mean Rojo? The way it is listed in your post it is 12 hours between a 1500m prelim and the 5000m FINAL. You make it sound like that would have no impact on her, but it certainly could impact what medal she gets in the 5000m. Or what am I missing?

If true, it's risky on two fronts.

1) she's good, but potentially going against veteran stars like Hassan, Obiri et al. I'd say she's a lock for a medal right now, but doing a 1500, even an easy 4:10, plus all the hustle of warm up, cool down, getting to and from the track. It's covid so I doubt they'd let you hang round all day. Everything will be slower and more complicated. The race is at 9:30am - what time is she going to have to be eating breakfast and leaving the village? How soon post race can she be eating to recover? She could very well still medal, but that slight loss of edge could be the difference between gold and silver.

2) cumulative fatigue. A 1500 that would probably require a 6am start, running at say 4:05-4:10, then an Olympic final starting at 9:40pm. She medals then she's guaranteed drug testing too. She's getting to bed way after midnight. That day is going to be exhausting physically and emotionally - plus she has the 5000m heats just three days prior. Meanwhile Faith Kipyegon, Laura Muir (if they don't do the 800), Shelby Houlihan et al (if they don't do the 800) are sat in the village saving their energy. She'll get one day off before the 1500 semis. Again, tbh she could totally medal in both despite this, but I could easily see those small margins costing her gold against the likes of Hassan or Kipyegon.

IMO this double would be more impressive than Hassan in Doha. And also my opinion it would be greedy. It's not underestimating the top end quality she's up against. She focuses on one event and she should be the gold medal favourite.

some of the athletes in one event may already be on the team in another event. there selection system is not the same as ours.

None of them will win.I doubt they'll medal.

With a night to think about it, I think the biggest winner might have been Paula Radcliffe. ALl of the people who said "2:15:25" was too much of an outlier for a woman are seeing the track WRs catch up.

rojo wrote:

With a night to think about it, I think the biggest winner might have been Paula Radcliffe. ALl of the people who said "2:15:25" was too much of an outlier for a woman are seeing the track WRs catch up.

But rojo, according to you, 2:15:25 in old school shoes is 2:10 in Bouncy Boiz.

You will never win with your Paula stance.

Wale was pre-selected for the steeple. He just had to run any event at the trials.

You're assuming Jager runs at the Olympics in this instance.

yung dennis wrote:

Wale was pre-selected for the steeple. He just had to run any event at the trials.

True! And Barega was already chosen in the 5000. All he had to do was run in any event also. I also heard that 5000 meter world champion, Muktar Edris, is a safe bet to make the Ethiopia 5000m team, as long as he can prove that he is fit. Edris has a reputation for peaking at Major Championship races. His 5th place finish at the Ethiopian Trials should be good enough for him to make their team.

Edris soft-pedaled the trials to prep for tomorrow's DL.

This is Jim Kiler wrote:

You're assuming Jager runs at the Olympics in this instance.

Also assuming houlihan is 100% healthy by the Olympics

rojo wrote:

With a night to think about it, I think the biggest winner might have been Paula Radcliffe. ALl of the people who said "2:15:25" was too much of an outlier for a woman are seeing the track WRs catch up.

Paula’s 2:15 not too much of an outlier, hahaha. Ignoring her jumps in off-score up to 47% within days and her label as likely doper, this is how of an outlier that was:

1) Since her 2:15:25 in 2003, 18 years ago, the women’s WR was beaten by only one, and only once, and only by 1:21, and with supershoes in 2019, 16 years later.

2) The men’s WR was beaten by 92 athletes since then, 181 times, and it improved by 3:59.

3) When she ran her 2:15:25, the 2nd best woman had a 2:18:47, a difference of 3:22.

4) It took over eight years for someone to come within 3 minutes of her 2:15:25, and that was later disqualified Shobukhova in 2011 with a 2:18:20 (2:55 slower).

5) It took 14 years for someone to come within 2 minutes of her 2:15:25, which was Keitany in 2017 with a 2:17:01 (who allegedly has a suspicious ABP in 2016).

Try to find another comparable outlier in long distance running...

Kipyeogon has a nailed on gold now. She's a class apart from Houlihan and Muir. Good for those two that they have moved into medal contention, I hope they can maintain fitness until Tokyo

Genzebe Dibaba did not run yesterday, and her only race this year is a 15:10 5k, is she guaranteed a spot at the Olympics ?

Faith Kipyegon is the biggest winner.

If neither Hussan not Tsegay runs 1500m, the gold medal is for Kipyegon's to lose.