Zurich DL Preview: A Loaded Men’s 1500, Richardson v Alfred, & Will The 14:00 Barrier Go Down?

We’re into September, which means the 2024 track season is drawing to an end. But before we say goodbye, there are still two big-time Diamond League meets remaining: Thursday’s Weltklasse Zurich (2-4 pm ET), and next week’s Diamond League final (Friday-Saturday) at the Memorial Van Damme in Brussels.

There are a couple of massive Olympic rematches in Zurich, with world champ Sha’Carri Richardson against Olympic champ Julien Alfred in the women’s 100 and a stacked men’s 1500 featuring Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Cole Hocker, Yared Nuguse, and Josh Kerr. The women’s 5,000 is worth a watch as well as Olympic champ Beatrice Chebet is rumored to be attacking the world record of 14:00.21 set last year by Gudaf Tsegay.

There’s also a fun 100-meter showdown between hurdles star Karsten Warholm and pole vault god Mondo Duplantis. LetsRun.com will claim a little credit for helping nudge this race into reality. When we were in Zurich last year, we asked the two at the pre-meet press conference if they would actually get together and race at some point and it was clearly a topic that excited both men, with world/Olympic 100m champ Noah Lyles even getting involved: LRC Mondo Duplantis and Karsten Warholm Agree They Need To Race at 100m.

Zurich organizers must have been paying attention, and with the Olympics in the rearview mirror, the timing works out nicely. The race will take place on Wednesday, the day before the main program in Zurich. (Here’s how you can watch live at 3:30 p.m. ET).

My winning time prediction: 10.38. These guys have to be faster than the fastest woman in history.

And the winner? Warholm is a professional runner so I think he wins, but my boss Robert Johnson thinks Mondo will crush Warholm. Rojo reminds me that Duplantis ran 10.57 (+2.1 m/s) for 100m in high school and said last year he’d be surprised if he can’t break 10.30 whereas Warholm has a 10.49 pb from when he was 20.

Here’s what you need to know about the rest of the meet on Thursday.

Men’s 1500: What a race

Considering how much time Jakob Ingebrigtsen spends pleading for his rivals to race more frequently and how he threw his arm around Cole Hocker’s shoulder like an old friend after beating him in Lausanne, could we witness a thawing of the frosty Ingebrigtsen-Kerr relationship in Zurich? I’m not counting on it, but it is fantastic for track fans that we get to see a rematch of one of the greatest 1500-meter races ever run with nine of the 12 Olympic finalists (including the entire top four) lining up in Zurich.

Enjoy it, because this will be the last Kerr v Ingebrigtsen matchup until 2025; Kerr is heading back stateside after the race to run the Fifth Avenue Mile on Sunday and will likely skip the Diamond League final, his coach Danny Mackey told LetsRun.com.

While it’s better for the sport to have all the best athletes running the DL final, I’m finding it hard to produce any outrage over this. Track doesn’t need the best athletes racing each other every single week. Scarcity is actually a powerful tool when used correctly — the Bowerman Mile was the most-hyped regular-season race of the year in part because Kerr and Ingebrigtsen had not raced since the 2023 Worlds. But you can still have scarcity without the stars avoiding each other like the plague. Did the fact Kerr and Ingebrigtsen had already raced at Pre make the Olympic 1500 final any less interesting? No; if anything, it built the hype even more.

This year, we’ll have had Kerr v Ingebrigtsen three times in four months during the outdoor season, which is the perfect amount for a heated rivalry like this: once early in the season at the Pre Classic (which produced an awesome race), once at the Olympics (ditto), and once after the Olympics (TBD). The only thing missing was a showdown at World Indoors, but Ingebrigtsen’s Achilles injury scuppered any chance of that (But can we please get these two against each other at 2025 World Indoors in the 3000 in China? We spent a lot of last week’s podcast debating about who would be better in a tactical 3000).

Let’s talk about Thursday’s race. Typically, Ingebrigtsen is going to be favored in a rabbitted race, particularly when he has shown that he remains in outrageous shape post-Paris, running 3:27 to crush Hocker in the Lausanne 1500 and an absurd 7:17 world record for 3,000 meters in Silesia. Ingebrigtsen always produces at an extremely high level on the circuit, and it is that consistency that sets him apart from his peers even if he has failed to win his last four global 1500m finals.

Or at least, it did set him apart. In years past, Kerr peaked hard for global championships and did not much care what happened before or after. Last year, Ingebrigtsen crushed Kerr two months before Worlds in Oslo. 8 days after Kerr won gold he won Budapest, he lost to Nuguse in Zurich. But the Kerr we have seen in 2024 has been running fast times the entire year. He ran 8:00 to set the indoor 2-mile world record in February, beat Ingebrigtsen in a rabbitted race at Pre in May, then ran a 3:27.79 pb for silver in the Olympic final. Can he replicate that sort of performance in Zurich? He’ll have had plenty of time to recover since Paris, since he hasn’t raced since the Olympic final. A Kerr victory would be his fourth straight over Ingebrigtsen.

Adding even more intrigue: VG reported that Ingebrigtsen woke up sick last Thursday, a week before the Zurich race (Editor’s note: When is the last time, if ever, we’ve had newspapers reporting about a runner being sick a week out from a race? We love it). Ingebrigtsen, of course, also said he was sick when Kerr beat him at Worlds in 2023.

Kerr fans may find that curious — hell, it is curious that Ingebrigtsen “woke up sick” on Thursday and his camp was already discussing it in the media later that day. But Ingebrigtsen’s last 100 in Budapest last year was worse than it had been all season, and it’s very possible illness was the reason why. How will it affect him in Zurich?

The Americans & Laros

Don’t worry, we didn’t forget about American Olympic medalists Cole Hocker and Yared Nuguse. Both men are certainly capable of winning here, but there are concerns. The fact that Hocker has stayed in Europe rather than returning to the US for a post-Olympic victory celebration shows he is serious about these final few meets. His 3:29 in Lausanne was a good run, but Ingebrigtsen beat him by 2+ seconds  in that race. Has anything changed two weeks later?

Nuguse did return home to Boulder after the Olympics but was back in Europe on Sunday, where he was upset in a road mile in Dusseldorf by Brit Elliot Giles. That’s not a great sign for his chances in Zurich, but Nuguse also closed 2023 very strongly, winning in Zurich and running 3:43 at the Diamond League final. Perhaps Nuguse was rusty in Dusseldorf in his first race since returning to Europe or was already looking ahead to the big one on Thursday?

Also keep an eye on 19-year-old Dutchman Niels Laros, who has been getting fitter all summer after an injury earlier this year and should (hopefully) get a chance to show it after Diamond League falls in Monaco and London.

One last thing about this race: neither Hocker (12th, 9 points) nor Laros (17th, 5 points) is currently in position to qualify for the Diamond League final. The top 10 in the standings make it, and right now Portugal’s Isaac Nader is 10th with 10 points. One point (eighth place) could be enough for Hocker to qualify given he owns the tiebreaker, but he may need to finish higher to block Laros, who will be shooting for third (six points) or better to give himself a shot at qualifying.

Of course, Hocker might still get a wild card for the final if he wants it.

MB: Zurich 1500m: Hocker, Kerr, Ingebrigtsen
MB: So Duck Duck Kerr is running Zurich and 5th Ave

Women’s 5,000: Does the sub-14:00 barrier fall?

Beatrice Chebet has already set one barrier-breaking world record this season, becoming the first woman under 29:00 for 10,000m at the Prefontaine Classic in May. On Thursday in Zurich, she has the chance to topple another barrier by becoming the first woman to break 14:00 for 5,000m. On the For the Kudos podcast, Australian pro Georgia Griffith said she has been tasked with rabbiting the field in Zurich through 3k in 8:25 — that’s 14:01 pace. The world record is 14:00.21 by Gudaf Tsegay. Sounds like the world record attempt is on.

Chebet already has one WR in 2024 and will try to make it two on Thursday (Kevin Morris photo)

Can she do it? Based on what Chebet has shown in 2024, she certainly has the fitness. Per World Athletics’ scoring tables, Chebet’s 28:54.14 WR for 10,000 is equivalent to 13:47 for 5,000. If you’re still skeptical, consider that last year in the NCAA, 84 men ran faster than 28:54.14 for 10,000 compared to 213 men who ran faster than 14:00.21 for 5,000. Yes, the 5,000 is contested more frequently, but that’s a significant gap.

There are three factors that will determine whether Chebet gets the record:

• Pacing. In her 10,000 WR at Pre, Chebet had the enormous benefit of running behind Tsegay for 88% of the race. She’ll have to do a larger share of the work in Zurich; Griffith’s 3k pb is 8:24, so the odds of her being able to run 8:25 from the front aren’t great.
• Weather. Temps will be in the mid-to-high 60s by race time (8:43 p.m. local time in Zurich), which is very good. Yes there’s possible rain in the forecast, which could throw things off, but LetsRun.com coaching/stat guru John Kellogg always reminds us that moist air is less dense than dry air.
• Recovery. Chebet said it took her a while to recover from her first world record this year, which is one of the reasons Faith Kipyegon crushed her in the 5,000 at the Kenyan Olympic trials. Chebet took on a big workload at the Olympics in winning the 5,000/10,000 double, so she could still be tired, even four weeks later.

If Chebet does break the record, her 2024 campaign will go down as one of the all-time best by a distance runner — first woman under 14:00, first woman under 29:00, World XC champ, and double Olympic gold.

Women’s 100: Richardson v Alfred

Sha’Carri Richardson versus Julien Alfred could be the rivalry that defines the next Olympic cycle in the women’s 100 meters. The Jamaican triumvirate of Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce, Elaine Thompson-Herah, and Shericka Jackson are all-time legends, but SAFP is retiring and Thompson-Herah and Jackson are on the wrong side of 30. Meanwhile world champion Richardson, 24, and Olympic champion Alfred, 23, are firmly in their primes or still ascending.

The race in Zurich is, obviously, a rematch of the Olympic final. Richardson entered that meet as the favorite thanks to a head-to-head win over Alfred at Pre and a world-leading 10.71 victory at the Olympic Trials, but Alfred trounced Richardson in Paris, running 10.72 to win by .15. Using Jonas Mureika‘s sprint conversion calculator, Alfred’s run in Paris into a slight headwind was worth 10.71 in still conditions — the best by any woman all year, and superior to Richardson’s Olympic Trials performance, which featured a +0.8 tailwind (worth 10.76 in still conditions).

Richardson could close some of that gap by getting a better start in Zurich, but not all of it. Either she’ll need to raise her game, or she will have to hope that Alfred celebrated a little too hard after the Olympics.

Whatever happens, it’s great to see two of track’s greatest sprinters duking it out in Zurich. This may be an example of the DL points system actually working as designed: Richardson is currently 11th in the DL standings and only the top eight make it to the final, which means she has to run in Zurich to ensure she qualifies.

Women’s 800: Moraa in fine form as Wiley tries to keep rolling

For the second year in a row, Addy Wiley is making a late-season run. Last year, ran pbs of 1:57.64 and 3:59.17 in September at the end of a very long season that began with her running in the NAIA for Huntington University. This year, her first as a pro, Wiley had an underwhelming Olympic Trials, failing to make the 800 final and finishing 11th in the 1500, but right now she is one of the hottest runners in the world. On August 28, she ran 1:56.83 to move into a tie for 5th on the 2024 world list (and #1 on the US list). Three days later, she ran 2:31.49 to break Regina Jacobs‘ 25-year-old American record at 1000 meters.

Those two times came at low-key races in Poland, but now Wiley is stepping up to the big leagues and faces a trio of Olympic medalists in Mary Moraa, Tsige Duguma, and Georgia Bell. It will be a big test for the 20-year-old American.

US champ Nia Akins is also entered here and will try to get back on track. In her first two races since leaving the Brooks Beasts, Akins finished 10th in Lausanne and 10th in Silesia.

Men’s 200: Tebogo tries to cash in again

No one has been busier since the Olympics than Letsile Tebogo. Since his 200m gold in Paris, he’s run — and won — at all three Diamond Leagues, taking the 200 in Lausanne and Silesia and putting on a show to win the 100 last week in Rome. After his latest victory, Tebogo was refreshingly honest about why he has been racing so much. Asked for his motivation at this point in the season, Tebogo slyly ducked his head and rubbed his right thumb and finger together: the universal symbol for money.

“Just trying to get the money,” Tebogo said. “You never know when you’re going to get races in again. That’s the motivation for me, so that going forward, I can know that 2024 was my year, I managed to accumulate as much money as possible.”

Tebogo is only 21 and should have plenty of paydays moving forward. But the future is never guaranteed. It makes sense to cash in while he’s hot — particularly with Noah Lyles shutting down his season and Kishane Thompson battling injuries again. In Zurich, he’ll be up against Fred Kerley, Erriyon Knighton, and Olympic silver medalist Kenny Bednarek in the men’s 200.