Isn't it paced? I think Hocker had a 3:26 in him in Paris, but idk if he has that in him anymore. Same with Kerr, they typically run their best in championships. Jakob just ran 7:17 though, and I like that kinda fitness in a paced 1500m.
Isn't it paced? I think Hocker had a 3:26 in him in Paris, but idk if he has that in him anymore. Same with Kerr, they typically run their best in championships. Jakob just ran 7:17 though, and I like that kinda fitness in a paced 1500m.
You're being a bit Captain Obvious here. Of course it's paced.
More nuanced breakdown:
Jakob - Would go off as a slight favorite due to it being paced and clearly still in supreme shape after his 7:17 3,000m. But we heard he's been sick a few days ago. In the past, that has affect him like in Monaco 2021 where he ran 3:29-something and Katir/Tim beat him pretty easily. So, he might be a bit diminished for this one, which certainly opens the door if he can "only" run a 3:28-29.
Kerr- Hasn't really shared too much of how he's bounced back from Paris, but will be the freshest in the field for this one. With Jakob's illness, you've got to like his chances because he obviously has been at a very high level all year from Indoor Worlds to Pre to Paris. Last year he ran well after Worlds, and this would be the sort of signature victory for him to call it a season, end up 3-0 vs. Jakob and then do Grand Slam Track.
Nuguse- Just got beat by Giles in a road mile running 3:51.9. Don't want to overreact too much because I suspect he was not anticipating much competition. Still, he looked like he was going hard and there was $$ on the line. Downgrade his chances as maybe he's enjoyed his bronze a bit.
Hocker- I am confident he will be a factor here and run a 3:28 type time (if the race is fast) or be competitive if it's slower. Ran decently in Lausanne, but it seems the really fast mid-race pace and adjustment psychologically hit him a bit. Put together a strong workout he showed after, and seems to be intent to closing the season out strong.
Dark Horse (Laros) - Expecting him in here, and skipped World Juniors which would've been a great shot at gold for him. Assuming he did that to beat a lifetime PB here or in the DL Final. He'd be probably the only guy *gaining* fitness at this stage based on his youth and uneven spring.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Isn't it paced? I think Hocker had a 3:26 in him in Paris, but idk if he has that in him anymore. Same with Kerr, they typically run their best in championships. Jakob just ran 7:17 though, and I like that kinda fitness in a paced 1500m.
You're being a bit Captain Obvious here. Of course it's paced.
More nuanced breakdown:
Jakob - Would go off as a slight favorite due to it being paced and clearly still in supreme shape after his 7:17 3,000m. But we heard he's been sick a few days ago. In the past, that has affect him like in Monaco 2021 where he ran 3:29-something and Katir/Tim beat him pretty easily. So, he might be a bit diminished for this one, which certainly opens the door if he can "only" run a 3:28-29.
Kerr- Hasn't really shared too much of how he's bounced back from Paris, but will be the freshest in the field for this one. With Jakob's illness, you've got to like his chances because he obviously has been at a very high level all year from Indoor Worlds to Pre to Paris. Last year he ran well after Worlds, and this would be the sort of signature victory for him to call it a season, end up 3-0 vs. Jakob and then do Grand Slam Track.
Nuguse- Just got beat by Giles in a road mile running 3:51.9. Don't want to overreact too much because I suspect he was not anticipating much competition. Still, he looked like he was going hard and there was $ on the line. Downgrade his chances as maybe he's enjoyed his bronze a bit.
Hocker- I am confident he will be a factor here and run a 3:28 type time (if the race is fast) or be competitive if it's slower. Ran decently in Lausanne, but it seems the really fast mid-race pace and adjustment psychologically hit him a bit. Put together a strong workout he showed after, and seems to be intent to closing the season out strong.
Dark Horse (Laros) - Expecting him in here, and skipped World Juniors which would've been a great shot at gold for him. Assuming he did that to beat a lifetime PB here or in the DL Final. He'd be probably the only guy *gaining* fitness at this stage based on his youth and uneven spring.
I’m guessing Kessler going to be in this as well which will make it epic seeing the top 6 guys from Paris all in Zurich.
I know Jakob has Kerr in the back of his head. He doesn’t want to lose 4 straight to him. Going for the WR isn’t the best strategy to beat him because of the risk he could blow up the last 100m. But maybe he’s very confident he can at least run 3:27.5 with pacers so maybe he goes for it.
I think Jakob has to be the favourite. If he even just had the pacing lights at the Olympics, he would have went out slower on the first lap and we may have had a different outcome.
Isn't it paced? I think Hocker had a 3:26 in him in Paris, but idk if he has that in him anymore. Same with Kerr, they typically run their best in championships. Jakob just ran 7:17 though, and I like that kinda fitness in a paced 1500m.
You're being a bit Captain Obvious here. Of course it's paced.
More nuanced breakdown:
Jakob - Would go off as a slight favorite due to it being paced and clearly still in supreme shape after his 7:17 3,000m. But we heard he's been sick a few days ago. In the past, that has affect him like in Monaco 2021 where he ran 3:29-something and Katir/Tim beat him pretty easily. So, he might be a bit diminished for this one, which certainly opens the door if he can "only" run a 3:28-29.
Kerr- Hasn't really shared too much of how he's bounced back from Paris, but will be the freshest in the field for this one. With Jakob's illness, you've got to like his chances because he obviously has been at a very high level all year from Indoor Worlds to Pre to Paris. Last year he ran well after Worlds, and this would be the sort of signature victory for him to call it a season, end up 3-0 vs. Jakob and then do Grand Slam Track.
Nuguse- Just got beat by Giles in a road mile running 3:51.9. Don't want to overreact too much because I suspect he was not anticipating much competition. Still, he looked like he was going hard and there was $ on the line. Downgrade his chances as maybe he's enjoyed his bronze a bit.
Hocker- I am confident he will be a factor here and run a 3:28 type time (if the race is fast) or be competitive if it's slower. Ran decently in Lausanne, but it seems the really fast mid-race pace and adjustment psychologically hit him a bit. Put together a strong workout he showed after, and seems to be intent to closing the season out strong.
Dark Horse (Laros) - Expecting him in here, and skipped World Juniors which would've been a great shot at gold for him. Assuming he did that to beat a lifetime PB here or in the DL Final. He'd be probably the only guy *gaining* fitness at this stage based on his youth and uneven spring.
I think Jakob will be fine physically though I hope people take note that he is only human, can get sick and not every race is automatically going to be a WR attempt.
I think the race will be fast (in the 27's) - but not as fast people are thinking. In fact I would be less shocked if it was a 3.28 race than a 3.26 race. I just can't see how this is not a "redemption race" of sorts for Jakob as he wants to prove Paris was a massive anomaly and because of that element I believe we will see him try and replicate an effort similar to Lausanne where he is back to the 56 flat opener and saving energy for the final 300m.
I really don't think he wants a situation where Kerr and Hocker in particular are flying past him in the final 100m again and to avoid that I don't think this is the race where he puts himself on the line going for the WR because if he gets it wrong he will be beaten.
As always I could be completely wrong, but that's my feeling of how this goes down.
I think Jakob will be fine physically though I hope people take note that he is only human, can get sick and not every race is automatically going to be a WR attempt.
I think the race will be fast (in the 27's) - but not as fast people are thinking. In fact I would be less shocked if it was a 3.28 race than a 3.26 race. I just can't see how this is not a "redemption race" of sorts for Jakob as he wants to prove Paris was a massive anomaly and because of that element I believe we will see him try and replicate an effort similar to Lausanne where he is back to the 56 flat opener and saving energy for the final 300m.
I really don't think he wants a situation where Kerr and Hocker in particular are flying past him in the final 100m again and to avoid that I don't think this is the race where he puts himself on the line going for the WR because if he gets it wrong he will be beaten.
As always I could be completely wrong, but that's my feeling of how this goes down.
Seems about right. Happy to see the Cheruiyots and Laros in the field. High-quality field and I think there could be quite a few under 3:30.
You're being a bit Captain Obvious here. Of course it's paced.
More nuanced breakdown:
Jakob - Would go off as a slight favorite due to it being paced and clearly still in supreme shape after his 7:17 3,000m. But we heard he's been sick a few days ago. In the past, that has affect him like in Monaco 2021 where he ran 3:29-something and Katir/Tim beat him pretty easily. So, he might be a bit diminished for this one, which certainly opens the door if he can "only" run a 3:28-29.
Kerr- Hasn't really shared too much of how he's bounced back from Paris, but will be the freshest in the field for this one. With Jakob's illness, you've got to like his chances because he obviously has been at a very high level all year from Indoor Worlds to Pre to Paris. Last year he ran well after Worlds, and this would be the sort of signature victory for him to call it a season, end up 3-0 vs. Jakob and then do Grand Slam Track.
Nuguse- Just got beat by Giles in a road mile running 3:51.9. Don't want to overreact too much because I suspect he was not anticipating much competition. Still, he looked like he was going hard and there was $ on the line. Downgrade his chances as maybe he's enjoyed his bronze a bit.
Hocker- I am confident he will be a factor here and run a 3:28 type time (if the race is fast) or be competitive if it's slower. Ran decently in Lausanne, but it seems the really fast mid-race pace and adjustment psychologically hit him a bit. Put together a strong workout he showed after, and seems to be intent to closing the season out strong.
Dark Horse (Laros) - Expecting him in here, and skipped World Juniors which would've been a great shot at gold for him. Assuming he did that to beat a lifetime PB here or in the DL Final. He'd be probably the only guy *gaining* fitness at this stage based on his youth and uneven spring.
I’m guessing Kessler going to be in this as well which will make it epic seeing the top 6 guys from Paris all in Zurich.
I know Jakob has Kerr in the back of his head. He doesn’t want to lose 4 straight to him. Going for the WR isn’t the best strategy to beat him because of the risk he could blow up the last 100m. But maybe he’s very confident he can at least run 3:27.5 with pacers so maybe he goes for it.
There’s nothing to lose and Ingebrigtsen will be focused on running the fastest time possible.
Jakob has been reported sick… He tried to have a little workout yesterday. He got sick right after the 3000m. It will be interesting to se if he starts or not. I geuss that a 7.17 runner can run sub 3.29, after a week og being sick.
You're being a bit Captain Obvious here. Of course it's paced.
More nuanced breakdown:
Jakob - Would go off as a slight favorite due to it being paced and clearly still in supreme shape after his 7:17 3,000m. But we heard he's been sick a few days ago. In the past, that has affect him like in Monaco 2021 where he ran 3:29-something and Katir/Tim beat him pretty easily. So, he might be a bit diminished for this one, which certainly opens the door if he can "only" run a 3:28-29.
Kerr- Hasn't really shared too much of how he's bounced back from Paris, but will be the freshest in the field for this one. With Jakob's illness, you've got to like his chances because he obviously has been at a very high level all year from Indoor Worlds to Pre to Paris. Last year he ran well after Worlds, and this would be the sort of signature victory for him to call it a season, end up 3-0 vs. Jakob and then do Grand Slam Track.
Nuguse- Just got beat by Giles in a road mile running 3:51.9. Don't want to overreact too much because I suspect he was not anticipating much competition. Still, he looked like he was going hard and there was $ on the line. Downgrade his chances as maybe he's enjoyed his bronze a bit.
Hocker- I am confident he will be a factor here and run a 3:28 type time (if the race is fast) or be competitive if it's slower. Ran decently in Lausanne, but it seems the really fast mid-race pace and adjustment psychologically hit him a bit. Put together a strong workout he showed after, and seems to be intent to closing the season out strong.
Dark Horse (Laros) - Expecting him in here, and skipped World Juniors which would've been a great shot at gold for him. Assuming he did that to beat a lifetime PB here or in the DL Final. He'd be probably the only guy *gaining* fitness at this stage based on his youth and uneven spring.
I think Jakob will be fine physically though I hope people take note that he is only human, can get sick and not every race is automatically going to be a WR attempt.
I think the race will be fast (in the 27's) - but not as fast people are thinking. In fact I would be less shocked if it was a 3.28 race than a 3.26 race. I just can't see how this is not a "redemption race" of sorts for Jakob as he wants to prove Paris was a massive anomaly and because of that element I believe we will see him try and replicate an effort similar to Lausanne where he is back to the 56 flat opener and saving energy for the final 300m.
I really don't think he wants a situation where Kerr and Hocker in particular are flying past him in the final 100m again and to avoid that I don't think this is the race where he puts himself on the line going for the WR because if he gets it wrong he will be beaten.
As always I could be completely wrong, but that's my feeling of how this goes down.
Paris was NOT an anomaly. It was entirely predictable. And something that happens FOUR times in a row is not an anomaly!!
As the “pacemaker”, he does not have a big enough fitness gap in the 1500m over the field of championship racers (for longer distances, it’s another story).
He was a “3:26 guy with pacers” running as a “3:28 guy without pacers” against a pack of “about to become 3:27 guys”. Outcome inevitable.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins in Zurich because he’ll have is pacers and Wavelights back. Meanwhile, this race is an afterthought for the other guys.
But to say Paris was an anomaly is just stupid and foolish.
I think Jakob will be fine physically though I hope people take note that he is only human, can get sick and not every race is automatically going to be a WR attempt.
I think the race will be fast (in the 27's) - but not as fast people are thinking. In fact I would be less shocked if it was a 3.28 race than a 3.26 race. I just can't see how this is not a "redemption race" of sorts for Jakob as he wants to prove Paris was a massive anomaly and because of that element I believe we will see him try and replicate an effort similar to Lausanne where he is back to the 56 flat opener and saving energy for the final 300m.
I really don't think he wants a situation where Kerr and Hocker in particular are flying past him in the final 100m again and to avoid that I don't think this is the race where he puts himself on the line going for the WR because if he gets it wrong he will be beaten.
As always I could be completely wrong, but that's my feeling of how this goes down.
Paris was NOT an anomaly. It was entirely predictable. And something that happens FOUR times in a row is not an anomaly!!
As the “pacemaker”, he does not have a big enough fitness gap in the 1500m over the field of championship racers (for longer distances, it’s another story).
He was a “3:26 guy with pacers” running as a “3:28 guy without pacers” against a pack of “about to become 3:27 guys”. Outcome inevitable.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins in Zurich because he’ll have is pacers and Wavelights back. Meanwhile, this race is an afterthought for the other guys.
But to say Paris was an anomaly is just stupid and foolish.
well, he didn't say Paris was an anomaly. He just said Jakob wanted to prove it was and he's not wrong.
That said, it won't prove anything with wavelight and pacers, unless it's a slow race.
This post was edited 53 seconds after it was posted.
I think Jakob will be fine physically though I hope people take note that he is only human, can get sick and not every race is automatically going to be a WR attempt.
I think the race will be fast (in the 27's) - but not as fast people are thinking. In fact I would be less shocked if it was a 3.28 race than a 3.26 race. I just can't see how this is not a "redemption race" of sorts for Jakob as he wants to prove Paris was a massive anomaly and because of that element I believe we will see him try and replicate an effort similar to Lausanne where he is back to the 56 flat opener and saving energy for the final 300m.
I really don't think he wants a situation where Kerr and Hocker in particular are flying past him in the final 100m again and to avoid that I don't think this is the race where he puts himself on the line going for the WR because if he gets it wrong he will be beaten.
As always I could be completely wrong, but that's my feeling of how this goes down.
Paris was NOT an anomaly. It was entirely predictable. And something that happens FOUR times in a row is not an anomaly!!
As the “pacemaker”, he does not have a big enough fitness gap in the 1500m over the field of championship racers (for longer distances, it’s another story).
He was a “3:26 guy with pacers” running as a “3:28 guy without pacers” against a pack of “about to become 3:27 guys”. Outcome inevitable.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins in Zurich because he’ll have is pacers and Wavelights back. Meanwhile, this race is an afterthought for the other guys.
But to say Paris was an anomaly is just stupid and foolish.
If it was that obvious to you that 3 runners who have never ran 3:28 would all run 3:27 in the same race then I'm sure you could've made a lot of money betting on that outcome.
Paris was NOT an anomaly. It was entirely predictable. And something that happens FOUR times in a row is not an anomaly!!
As the “pacemaker”, he does not have a big enough fitness gap in the 1500m over the field of championship racers (for longer distances, it’s another story).
He was a “3:26 guy with pacers” running as a “3:28 guy without pacers” against a pack of “about to become 3:27 guys”. Outcome inevitable.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins in Zurich because he’ll have is pacers and Wavelights back. Meanwhile, this race is an afterthought for the other guys.
But to say Paris was an anomaly is just stupid and foolish.
If it was that obvious to you that 3 runners who have never ran 3:28 would all run 3:27 in the same race then I'm sure you could've made a lot of money betting on that outcome.
tbh, I don't think it's a stretch to think Kerr and Nuguse could run 3:27. Nuguse ran a 3:43 last year, while Kerr also improved quite a bit this year and he already ran a low 3:29 with a 53 last year. Hocker though, was really a surprise, I thought he "only" was in 3:28 shape under the right circumstances.
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