I think he may be in shape for 2:09-2:12, but the race may go out too slow for that to be realistic. 2:13 is a good call.
I think he may be in shape for 2:09-2:12, but the race may go out too slow for that to be realistic. 2:13 is a good call.
What place is 2:13 wrote:
I don't think the hills will make as big of an impact as people are saying. It's reported about 1300 of gain over 26.2 miles, or 50 feet per mile. A lot of people have been doing workouts on stuff like this and maybe they'd only slow down a few seconds per mile, or two minutes over a marathon.
Rupp, Korir, Ward will likely be around 2:09-2:10, even on this course. Abdi ran 2:11 at New York which is comparable, so he could be a high 2:11. A few other guys could be 2:11's like Fauble if he's back to his top marathon form. Then you'll have a string of guys in the 2:12's, possibly 10 of them. I do think Walmsley could run 2:13 in Atlanta if he runs a great race, but I think a 2:13 will only be about 15th-20th place. A 2:13:50's could likely be 25th place.
And the weather is likely to be 50-65 degrees during the race, possibly with rain, but as long as it's not a storm with 20+ mph winds it won't effect too much. Chicago had rain two years ago and Rupp still ran 2:06.
Fitness alone does not determine the times.
No pacers, so they likely go out in 66+. Most people who can come close will go for top 3 until they fall apart as opposed to aiming for a fast 25th place.
I guess 66-63:xx for the winner and 66-64:xx for third.
Then, 2:12:high and above for outside the top 5.
Not everyone will have their best race on the day, too.
Unless you think the shoes push these times down even further.
Coffee Bacon wrote:
MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:
I admit, I got a good laugh out of this. Well done.
As everyone knows, I'm a big Walmsley fan. I like the way he runs. It's reckless abandon and harkens back to old-school running. He just f*****g runs and goes for it. Sometimes it's a fantastic day. Sometimes it's a blow-up. I'd rather watch that than "sit and kick" (I say "sit and kick" since they are still running wayyy faster than I ever could) until 400m left in the race like we saw in Dubai.
That being said....I'm really hoping he's prepared for the absolute beating his body is going to take with a hard 26.2 mile effort on the roads. The roads, unlike the trails, are unforgiving. I think he'll be fine during the race, but regardless of where he finishes, he better take some time off before jumping back into training for Comrades. IF he somehow qualifies to the Olympic team, that is going to be three hard road efforts in one year.
Yeah, 2:13 hobby runner territory..what a time to be alive..
I too am a huge JW fan, but wasn't sure of him at first, tbh. A switch was turned on after his 2017 blow up @ WS, and it's been on ever since.
He's reckless but very calculated. He is hands down my favorite athlete in sport, and I love how he walks in his own lane of unconventional tactics. He's great for running, and I wish him nothing but the best. I do believe his chances for the Olympic team are very, very slim, but it's going to be close. I'll put money on him being top 8. The ATL course will play to his strengths as long as he doesn't get too carried away the first HM-30k mark, I think that will be one of the biggest defining tactics for him, and how well he executes that part of the race.
Hoping recovery goes well post trials because his chances at Comrades could be epic..
The available strategies for him are the same as anyone else of his ability. He can go out with the leaders or drop back a bit, but try to stay within striking distance. He can also decide he doesn't have a realistic chance of making the team and run an even pace and get a good time. You act as if he's playing chess.
What place is 2:13 wrote:
Rupp, Korir, Ward will likely be around 2:09-2:10, even on this course. Abdi ran 2:11 at New York which is comparable, so he could be a high 2:11. A few other guys could be 2:11's like Fauble if he's back to his top marathon form. Then you'll have a string of guys in the 2:12's, possibly 10 of them.
That's hilarious.
Sorry but 2:13 is a hobby jogger time for a male. Yes, it is among the fastest of hobby joggers but it is still hobby jogging i.e. this runner is not making a living/career off of running. He is not appearing on magazine covers and shoe ads, he is not getting all expense paid invites to major races. 99.99999% of people have no idea who he is, and 98.5% of runners have never heard of him either. Aside from trust funders, a 2:13 guy is working some other job to keep food on the table, or living in a house with 5 other guys and probably still on his parent's health insurance.
No shame in it, it is just the way it is.
Walmsley has no reason to reevaluate his career even if he runs 2:12. He has found a niche that he excels at and is making a better living doing it than any 2:13 marathoner out there. Seems like he enjoys it, too, which counts for something.
Jim Walmsley and Sage Canaday will bring a big surprise to the Olympic Trails
Jim will run an even pace with the group until the 17th mile, then go to the lead. He either holds on to finish top 3 in 2:08-2:09 or blows up a bit and fades to 10th-12th in 2:13ish. I say 2:08:46 ftw.
Niles wrote:
Jim will run an even pace with the group until the 17th mile, then go to the lead. He either holds on to finish top 3 in 2:08-2:09 or blows up a bit and fades to 10th-12th in 2:13ish. I say 2:08:46 ftw.
My take is that is the pace of the lead group could be fast enough where he would be incapable of maintaining contact that far into the race.
Wildhorse wrote:
zzzz wrote:
If he ran that, he wouldn't have to reevaluate anything, assuming that's not top 3. 2:13 doesn't get you anything on the roads - little to no prize money, sponsorship, appearance fees. 2:13 is hobby runner territory.
In the US, 2:13' is elite. With all that comes with it.
Not much comes with 2:13. Here are the runners with 2:13 qualifiers for the Olympic Trials:
Enoch Nadler
Andrew Epperson
Anthony Costales
Aaron Braun
Josh Izewski
Joseph Stillin
Haron Lagat
Samuel Kosgei
Brian Shrader
Malcolm Richards
Tyler Jermann
Joseph Whalen
Craig Leon
CJ Albertson
Chris Zablocki
Patrick Smyth
Mick Iacofano
Martn Hehir
Jarrett LeBlanc
I don't think Walmsley would want to trade positions with any of those guys in terms of sponsorship, money, or attention in media. I've heard of maybe a third to half of those guys, but could probably only pick two of them out in a photo lineup.
BS zzz wrote:
No. 2:13 gets you wins in places like Kunming & Nanjing China where 1st place gets 40k. Also gets you 1st place in marathons like Dusseldorf, Sapporo, Kazan, & Tallinn. You get 2nd in places like Honolulu and get at least 10k.
Show me any US 2:13 runner that thinks that's a good way to make a living. There aren't any. Maybe 2:13 gets $40K one year, maybe you have to beat 2:11 guys the next year. Making a living cherry picking races assumes that other people are not as good cherry picking. Cherry picking races for prize a rough way to live, much worse than what Walmsley has now.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Niles wrote:
Jim will run an even pace with the group until the 17th mile, then go to the lead. He either holds on to finish top 3 in 2:08-2:09 or blows up a bit and fades to 10th-12th in 2:13ish. I say 2:08:46 ftw.
My take is that is the pace of the lead group could be fast enough where he would be incapable of maintaining contact that far into the race.
You think the US is Japan, Ethiopia or Kenya now?
MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:
I admit, I got a good laugh out of this. Well done.
As everyone knows, I'm a big Walmsley fan. I like the way he runs. It's reckless abandon and harkens back to old-school running. He just f*****g runs and goes for it. Sometimes it's a fantastic day. Sometimes it's a blow-up. I'd rather watch that than "sit and kick" (I say "sit and kick" since they are still running wayyy faster than I ever could) until 400m left in the race like we saw in Dubai.
That being said....I'm really hoping he's prepared for the absolute beating his body is going to take with a hard 26.2 mile effort on the roads. The roads, unlike the trails, are unforgiving. I think he'll be fine during the race, but regardless of where he finishes, he better take some time off before jumping back into training for Comrades. IF he somehow qualifies to the Olympic team, that is going to be three hard road efforts in one year.
Talk about getting a good laugh. Is Walmsley prepared for the beating his body will get on the roads? Roads are unforgiving unlike trails? Are you freaking serious?
Do you think he doesn't train on roads at all, like a road is some strange new scary and confusing surface for him?
And apparently you have never run in the Grand Canyon, or on twisting rocky trails like the ones around Flagstaff that Walmsley trains on nearly every day. Yeah real forgiving surfaces there, like a nice downy marshmallow cradling one's feet to sleep. Dude, out here we run on the roads as a form of recovery from the trails. Not the other way around.
Some people I swear.
Bro, go back and read what he told the Brojos. He was beat up after his 1:04:00 at Houston and admitted he needed more road miles.. That is why I said that. I'm sure he's been doing more road miles, but I haven't see a 26.2 mile 5:04 effort on the roads from him.
What place is 2:13 wrote:
I don't think the hills will make as big of an impact as people are saying. It's reported about 1300 of gain over 26.2 miles, or 50 feet per mile. A lot of people have been doing workouts on stuff like this and maybe they'd only slow down a few seconds per mile, or two minutes over a marathon.
Rupp, Korir, Ward will likely be around 2:09-2:10, even on this course. Abdi ran 2:11 at New York which is comparable, so he could be a high 2:11. A few other guys could be 2:11's like Fauble if he's back to his top marathon form. Then you'll have a string of guys in the 2:12's, possibly 10 of them. I do think Walmsley could run 2:13 in Atlanta if he runs a great race, but I think a 2:13 will only be about 15th-20th place. A 2:13:50's could likely be 25th place.
And the weather is likely to be 50-65 degrees during the race, possibly with rain, but as long as it's not a storm with 20+ mph winds it won't effect too much. Chicago had rain two years ago and Rupp still ran 2:06.
2:13.50 is 25th?
LMAO
Do you even jog, bro? wrote:
MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:
I admit, I got a good laugh out of this. Well done.
As everyone knows, I'm a big Walmsley fan. I like the way he runs. It's reckless abandon and harkens back to old-school running. He just f*****g runs and goes for it. Sometimes it's a fantastic day. Sometimes it's a blow-up. I'd rather watch that than "sit and kick" (I say "sit and kick" since they are still running wayyy faster than I ever could) until 400m left in the race like we saw in Dubai.
That being said....I'm really hoping he's prepared for the absolute beating his body is going to take with a hard 26.2 mile effort on the roads. The roads, unlike the trails, are unforgiving. I think he'll be fine during the race, but regardless of where he finishes, he better take some time off before jumping back into training for Comrades. IF he somehow qualifies to the Olympic team, that is going to be three hard road efforts in one year.
Talk about getting a good laugh. Is Walmsley prepared for the beating his body will get on the roads? Roads are unforgiving unlike trails? Are you freaking serious?
Do you think he doesn't train on roads at all, like a road is some strange new scary and confusing surface for him?
And apparently you have never run in the Grand Canyon, or on twisting rocky trails like the ones around Flagstaff that Walmsley trains on nearly every day. Yeah real forgiving surfaces there, like a nice downy marshmallow cradling one's feet to sleep. Dude, out here we run on the roads as a form of recovery from the trails. Not the other way around.
Some people I swear.
Like the 170 a week he rolls on rocky trails, roads and the track doesn’t beat the living s!h!t out of his body..? This isn’t GRupp who needs his hand held; we are talking about a real man. The guy trains on rock 20-30 miles per day
I was a part-time "hobby jogger" back in the mid 80's with a family and a full-time job running decently enough to get invited to a few second-tier US marathons. No appearance money but travel expenses and a few bucks in prize money if I ran well. It was fun. No pressure. Pressure? I'll never forget one race the night before at the elite runners dinner sitting at a table with a genuine top-tier known name American elite who was stressed out to perform the next morning because he had a house payment to make that month. I thought then and there, no thanks.
The Seer's Tower wrote:
ThatAverageRunner wrote:
Time wise I feel like this is a solid prediction. What place is the good question.
5th? 15th? Could see either.
He will place 16th.
There is no way in hell that 15 guys run under 2:13:27 in Atlanta.
^ wrote:
Like the 170 a week he rolls on rocky trails, roads and the track doesn’t beat the living s!h!t out of his body..? This isn’t GRupp who needs his hand held; we are talking about a real man. The guy trains on rock 20-30 miles per day
A real man would train how a 2:10 man would train.
170 miles on trails will do much to making Jim faster for a Marathon.
Jim's 170 miles only show how insecure he is.
The effects of the hills in Atlanta are a complete unknown so predicting his time is impossible. An appraisal of what we believe he could run on a neutral course is more meaningful. I would guess he could run about 2:13.
you dont think the magic shoes will put 15+ under 214? 23 guys qualified with 214.00 or better. plus some fast halves. they wont all have their best day, and the course isnt fast (but it aint that slow) . but these shoes are something else.
faubs seems like a great dude, but i hope hes not calling himself a 209 guy, just like i hope hall doesnt call himself a 204 guy. fact remains they ran 209 and 204 with help, and i see it playing out the same way in atlanta?
What place is 2:13 wrote:
I don't think the hills will make as big of an impact as people are saying. It's reported about 1300 of gain over 26.2 miles, or 50 feet per mile. A lot of people have been doing workouts on stuff like this and maybe they'd only slow down a few seconds per mile, or two minutes over a marathon.
Rupp, Korir, Ward will likely be around 2:09-2:10, even on this course. Abdi ran 2:11 at New York which is comparable, so he could be a high 2:11. A few other guys could be 2:11's like Fauble if he's back to his top marathon form. Then you'll have a string of guys in the 2:12's, possibly 10 of them. I do think Walmsley could run 2:13 in Atlanta if he runs a great race, but I think a 2:13 will only be about 15th-20th place. A 2:13:50's could likely be 25th place.
There is a lot wrong with your statements here.
1. 99% of runners underprepare for hilly courses. If there is anybody in the Trials field that will be prepared for the hills without any doubt, it's Walmsley. probably followed by Rupp, who probably had a loop built in his backyard that mimics the elevation profile of ATL.
2. Ward is not on the same level as Rupp/Korir. Expect to see Korir/Rupp out front and Ward back with the other guys like Fauble. I don't actually think that Korir and Rupp will be too far in front but I don't think Ward has any chance of running 2:09 on this course.
3. You WAY overestimate the number of guys who will finish within a minute or two of the top 3. This isn't Chicago...people are going for broke in this race and most are going to come away defeated. Many of the guys with 2:10-2:12 PBs will DNF or drop way back after trying to stay with the lead pack for as long as possible.
4. If JW runs 2:13, he will not get beat by more than 6 runners. I'd bet $100 on that right now. JW won't be the 7th fastest runner that day, but he could easily finish around 7th place if he just minds his own business and doesn't get too caught up with the Tyler Pennel surge tactics.