Jim Walmsley WILL run 2:13:27 at the Olympic Trials Marathon.

This is bold. I like it.

And I think it's a very solid prediction.

What do you think the place on this 2:13 will be?

Time wise I feel like this is a solid prediction. What place is the good question.

5th? 15th? Could see either.

No, no, NO!!! I can promise he will not only make the team, but will win the whole thing in a 2:03and completely crush the completion! If anyone tries argue, I will immediately refer them to look at his Strava. End of discussion!

ThatAverageRunner wrote:

Time wise I feel like this is a solid prediction. What place is the good question.

5th? 15th? Could see either.

He will place 16th.

Can we all agree that if Jim runs a 2:11 he will be the greatest all around distance runner of all time goat?

Solid time. I think 2:13-15 in Atlanta.

His half indicates something like 2:13, so 2:15 in Atlanta. 1:30 for tapering, better fitness and his bias to longer stuff sounds reasonable.

And I bet 2:13 is closer to 5th in Atlanta.

The Seer's Tower wrote:

You heard it here first. This is a fact, not debatable. He won't make the team, but he will have to re-evaluate his trail running career choice.

If he ran that, he wouldn't have to reevaluate anything, assuming that's not top 3. 2:13 doesn't get you anything on the roads - little to no prize money, sponsorship, appearance fees. 2:13 is hobby runner territory.

zzzz wrote:

The Seer's Tower wrote:

You heard it here first. This is a fact, not debatable. He won't make the team, but he will have to re-evaluate his trail running career choice.

If he ran that, he wouldn't have to reevaluate anything, assuming that's not top 3. 2:13 doesn't get you anything on the roads - little to no prize money, sponsorship, appearance fees. 2:13 is hobby runner territory.

In the US, 2:13' is elite. With all that comes with it.

The Seer's Tower wrote:

You heard it here first. This is a fact, not debatable. He won't make the team, but he will have to re-evaluate his trail running career choice.

Check back here after the race to let me know how right I am.

He'll go out with the leaders, tie up when they pick up the pace, and stumble in with a 2:15 or DNF

zzzz wrote:

The Seer's Tower wrote:

You heard it here first. This is a fact, not debatable. He won't make the team, but he will have to re-evaluate his trail running career choice.

If he ran that, he wouldn't have to reevaluate anything, assuming that's not top 3. 2:13 doesn't get you anything on the roads - little to no prize money, sponsorship, appearance fees. 2:13 is hobby runner territory.

No. 2:13 gets you wins in places like Kunming & Nanjing China where 1st place gets 40k. Also gets you 1st place in marathons like Dusseldorf, Sapporo, Kazan, & Tallinn. You get 2nd in places like Honolulu and get at least 10k.

Uber mt runner wrote:

Can we all agree that if Jim runs a 2:11 he will be the greatest all around distance runner of all time goat?

Not a chance. There’s a very long list of marathoners and below who were exceptional ultra/trail runners. Moreso on the women’s side.

I know multiple 2:17-2:18 guys who pull in $10k/year of prize money.

Is this the most hyped marathon on American soil of all time? Big Jimmy has the purists rattled. They know he is in sub 2:10 shape but they dare not admit it.

Also on appearance fees a 2:13 Jim Walmsley commands a much bigger appearance fee than 2:13 rando from Ethiopia. Not that he'd be interested but he could make a good living on the marathon circuit without even winning any races.

zzzz wrote:

2:13 is hobby runner territory.

I admit, I got a good laugh out of this. Well done.

As everyone knows, I'm a big Walmsley fan. I like the way he runs. It's reckless abandon and harkens back to old-school running. He just f*****g runs and goes for it. Sometimes it's a fantastic day. Sometimes it's a blow-up. I'd rather watch that than "sit and kick" (I say "sit and kick" since they are still running wayyy faster than I ever could) until 400m left in the race like we saw in Dubai.

That being said....I'm really hoping he's prepared for the absolute beating his body is going to take with a hard 26.2 mile effort on the roads. The roads, unlike the trails, are unforgiving. I think he'll be fine during the race, but regardless of where he finishes, he better take some time off before jumping back into training for Comrades. IF he somehow qualifies to the Olympic team, that is going to be three hard road efforts in one year.

Yeah, 2:13 hobby runner territory..what a time to be alive..

I too am a huge JW fan, but wasn't sure of him at first, tbh. A switch was turned on after his 2017 blow up @ WS, and it's been on ever since.

He's reckless but very calculated. He is hands down my favorite athlete in sport, and I love how he walks in his own lane of unconventional tactics. He's great for running, and I wish him nothing but the best. I do believe his chances for the Olympic team are very, very slim, but it's going to be close. I'll put money on him being top 8. The ATL course will play to his strengths as long as he doesn't get too carried away the first HM-30k mark, I think that will be one of the biggest defining tactics for him, and how well he executes that part of the race.

Hoping recovery goes well post trials because his chances at Comrades could be epic..

[quote]Coffee Bacon wrote:

A switch was turned on after his 2017 blow up @ WS, and it's been on ever since.

/quote]

I've said it before, but I 100% believe it was both the WS blowup AND the 5th place finish that year at UTMB that totally changed him. What he says he battled at UTMB, with his stomach and the lows he went thru. Plus, it was the first time he really stepped out of his comfort zone and challenged the likes of Killian and Francois and Xavier, the more "established" true mountain runners on their turf. He showed himself "Hey, I can do this".

I don't think the hills will make as big of an impact as people are saying. It's reported about 1300 of gain over 26.2 miles, or 50 feet per mile. A lot of people have been doing workouts on stuff like this and maybe they'd only slow down a few seconds per mile, or two minutes over a marathon.

Rupp, Korir, Ward will likely be around 2:09-2:10, even on this course. Abdi ran 2:11 at New York which is comparable, so he could be a high 2:11. A few other guys could be 2:11's like Fauble if he's back to his top marathon form. Then you'll have a string of guys in the 2:12's, possibly 10 of them. I do think Walmsley could run 2:13 in Atlanta if he runs a great race, but I think a 2:13 will only be about 15th-20th place. A 2:13:50's could likely be 25th place.

And the weather is likely to be 50-65 degrees during the race, possibly with rain, but as long as it's not a storm with 20+ mph winds it won't effect too much. Chicago had rain two years ago and Rupp still ran 2:06.