Webb or Mottram and the year they are having

I'd say Mottram would have the better shot at winning....except that he has to beat Bekele. With El G and to a lesser extent Lagat out, there isn't a 1500m runner close to Bekele's level. Therefore, even though Mottram's a better runner right now, I'd say Webb is more likely to get Gold.

Mottram's only weakness is his great kick isn't as good as Bekele's.

Everyone's going to point to Webb's tactics and kick....but that's crap. Willis is in nearly as good shape as Webb, but who's been the better racer? Webb also won nationals in a pedestrian time against guys who soon became 3:34-3:35 runners.

I agree on all counts.

I think Webb has been the better racer. I don't think Willis has been racing that much internationally; he was in a league of his own in the NCAA's. Webb has been consistently placing top 3/4 in all his races thus far, including that 5000m at the Penn relays.

not top 3/4ths, but top 3 or 4

I believe webb has the best chance to get gold...but i think mottram has a better shot at medaling.

Quick answer: Webb

Now the long part:

Webb: He is younger his times are just a tad slower than those needs to be a champion, he is close to 3:30. Webb seems very good at running races flat out. He will need to learn how to deal with the cut and thrust of competitive 1500 meters. However he has the initiative to break a race open with a drive (olympic trials). His olympics was a fluke, he has typically run much better than that. He has a fairly average kick but also lacks any true weaknesses and has a good drive finish, as El G has shown a drive can be super effective. With El G done or on his way out and everyone else fairly balanced the 1500 looks to be wide open for the future, leaving chances for solid guys like Webb to win. I think he has shown potential for even further improvement.

Mottram: Mottram has a tough order. He has run 12:55, but that is fairly average olympic finalists now. His 3:48 is good but that doesn't put him above all the 5k guys, most 5k guys have rarely made serious attempts at the distance. Mottram finished close to Bekele, but Bekele was comfortable and beating Bekele is lightyears removed from finishing close to him. He also has Kipchoge to deal with, Kipchoge is flat out better and has the kick to defeat Bekele. Songok is a new threat who has shown great finishing speed now that he is accustomed to the distance. Mottram is a very average 12:55 runner (if such a thing exists), good but not great in all respects. He needs a titanic kick to win, look at the guys who've beaten Bekele; Chebeii, Kipchoge and El G, all those guys are utter monster finishers at 5k. Against the level of competition Webb is facing, Mottram would have as good a chance as any, his competition is better.

One key point: In Webb's best races at 1500/mile he won over in Europe running 3:32 against Saidi-Sief, Heshko, Lagat and Prefontaine. Whereas Mottram's biggest races have at his prime distance have been in losing efforts ( to an old, over the hill Geb, and a cruising Bekele). Those losing efforts show where Mottram stands, the guys he has to beat are so damn good, even on his best day he can't touch them. Webb has beaten, at one point or another, almost everyone he would need to get a gold, just not in the championships.

Mackenzie wrote:

One key point: In Webb's best races at 1500/mile he won over in Europe running 3:32 against Prefontaine.

enlighten me: when did webb even RACE prefontaine? am i wrong in assuming pre was dead about 10yrs before webb's birth?

He's talking about the race at the prefontaine classic, in addition to the ostrava meet. Learn reading.

Exactly

. wrote:

Learn reading.

Perhaps you should. The original post does make it sound like Webb raced Pre. A little intution would help here, but I think you need the readin' skills ...

I love Mottram, but do you really think he could beat Bekele

one on one in a world champinship.I will take Bekele any day at the worlds or China Oly.

damn Common Sense, learn how to read--or learn English. Sorry to bust your balls, but you're ignorant or a lame troll.

common sense isn't that commo wrote:

enlighten me: when did webb even RACE prefontaine? am i wrong in assuming pre was dead about 10yrs before webb's birth?

music wrote:

. wrote:

Learn reading.

Perhaps you should. The original post does make it sound like Webb raced Pre. A little intution would help here, but I think you need the readin' skills ...

Yeah,, It does sound like he said webb raced pre, but If you aren't a moron you can figure out what he meant to say pretty easily.

Your move, genius.

Mottram is a better athlete in every way then Webb. Webb beat him by 0.06s in Oslo while training for the mile, whereas Mottram just rolled up to the line with no mile-specific training under his belt and broke a national record. Its true that the 1500 doesn't have anywhere near the depth the 5k does at the moment, but use a bit of common sense. Webb will not go near a medal until he can comfortably beat those who are training for other events. And with regard to his 5k PR, Mottram ran a 12.55 and appeared to be crusing (Evidence- last 200 covered in 26.0). In a fast race he would comfortably run under 12.50, and with his kick it is difficult to see him missing a medal. The colour can only be determined on the night, but Bekele has shown questionable tactics in the past (such as thinking he could outkick the greatest miler of all time in Athens). Get over Webb, he is not the freak of nature that Mottram is. Roll on Helsinki...

xbcha1 wrote:

Get over Webb

A 3:48 mile and AR in the 2-mile, yet you're dismissing him pretty decisively there.

If I'm not mistaken, Webb is two and a half years younger than Mottram and thus not as far along in his development as an athlete. At 25, Mottram is not far from his peak, while Webb at 22 has several more years until he reaches his prime. Running a 3:48 at age 22 puts him in extremely rare company; a good chunck of guys who have run that fast at that age or younger have gone on to win Olympic or World Championship medals down the road. Remember that Seb Coe was 22 (a few months away from 23) when he ran his world record of 3:48.95, and Steve Ovett didn't run sub 3:50 until he was 23; Said Aouita was 24, and Steve Scott was 25.

To find guys who have run faster than Webb at a younger age, you're looking at people like Morceli, El Gerroudj, Ngeny, Cram, Niyangabo, Komen, and a few other Kenyans. If Mottram and Webb were the same age with their current accomplishments, I'd say that Mottram has more potential going forward, but ask yourself how good Mottram was three years ago. Had he reached the level of ability and competitiveness on the world stage that Webb has already reached? I think a 3:32 at age 21 and a 3:48 at age 22 are slightly more impressive than a 12:55 at age 25, at least relative to the times being put up by the other top guys in the 1500 and 5000.

I agree with a lot of what has been said. I think it is very difficult to judge potential however. Both runners have made improvements, so it appears as if they are both on their way to bigger and better things.

I will say Mottram has already broken two great barriers however. Sub 13 and sub 3:50. Very impressive. The one thing that troubles me about Webb is his unwillingness at this point to race longer distances over seas. I think Mottram's ability and willingness to race all the distances may make his medal chances a bit higher (even think about XC where Mottram runs the long and short course). He can compete with the best from 1500-5000, but Webb has only shown an ability to compete over the mile. I will say that his recent 5k and 2 mile times indicate otherwise, but if he gets it stuck in his head that he should only compete at major championships over the 1500 (ie he needs to be the next great american miler exclusively), then he may be missing out.

I think Webb is gradually progressing towards adding more longer races in though. I could see him running some more 3000's next year & maybe a couple 5k's.

Saying that Webb is younger by two years does not make much sense when you take into account the fact that Mottram only started running at a later stage than Webb. Some coaches talk about training age, ie the amount of years training an athlete has behind them. Mottram has reached the level he is at in about 5-6 years of running.

Even if this was not the case there is no conclusive evidence which says all runners must peak at this age etc, no one can say whether webb or mottram is having the best year of their career just now.