marathon goal question for decent 8k'er

you are all lying pieces of shit. Someone who can run that fast, especially after a supposed "4 year layoff" would not need the adivce of random assholes on this forum. His times are obviously bull shit and he should go off himself for being such a f***ing douche bag. You people make me sick.

I recently ran 23:55 for the 8k in a road race with some rolling hills but nothing too tough. I have only been training 11 months after a four year lay off but I got in a good 7 months of 80-90 miles per week, only doing speed work for the last 9 weeks of my training. The 8K pace is significantly faster than my previous 3k p.r. pace from years ago. I plan to run a marathon next spring, trying to get my mileage to over 100 a week for a significant period. My question is, what would be a good goal to shoot for time wise? I plan on running the marathon on a decently fast course.

Look for a short course like your 8K, oops, your 7K....

If I didn't know better I'd think that you were me! I had a similar "layoff" in the sense that the last 3-4 years of my training were severely interrupted by injuries and other "minor" health concerns. I also had a similar drop in times after this layoff - only down to 24:20 for the 8k though. AND, I'm ALSO looking to move up to the marathon. Anyway, I can't really give you any goal time advice, but I wanted to say good luck.

One thing I will say is that I THINK for me the "layoff" has helped to break down a lot of barriers of what I "thought" I was capable of. In that sense I'd suggest that you just transition into your marathon specific training when you are ready and get a feel for the "goal pace" that comes naturally without putting limits on yourself. I know of plenty of people that are a minute or more slower than you and have run at the Olympic Marathon Trials so be careful not to set your sights to low.

no, the course was certified and is actually a fairly big race. my 3k p.r. was 9:19 but I was only running 30 miles per week, all easy, when I ran that. I also have lost about twenty pounds since then. Right now I think sub 2:20 is a good goal but going for 2:15 is tempting but I might risk blowing up.

2 different calculators say your 8k translates into a 2:21, so 2:20 itself is a very ambitious goal- forget about 2:15.

Check your progress against a winter 10k or half which calculate to 30:22 and 1:07:30 if you are in 2:21 shape.

For your first marathon I think 2:20 is a very best case scenario. 2:24 more likely.

ive heard of guys who's 8K p.r.'s are mid 24's and have broken 2:20. 2:24 doesn't sound very ambitious at all.

Best advice I can give is to just get out and do run a marathon, aim for 2:30 and see how it feels. You'll get a feel for the marathon without easing up on the training and begin to understand what it is EXACTLY that will help you run sub 2:20 in the next year. If you've been running again for just 7 months and have already dropped sub 24 8k, another 12 months of buildup would be a perfect amount to run 1 marathon as a test and then try to run a sub 2:20 marathon NEXT fall. Also experiment with some half mara's, see how running a 68 or 69 feels in terms of ease. If you wanna run sub 2:20, obv. you gotta be able to cruise through around 70:00 and then drop a 68:00 last 13.1. Just my thoughts. Definitely give a marathon a go without thinking too hard about it, is my opinion.

id say the first marathon go through in 70 then pick it up if you're capable. make sure to run a couple half marathons in preparation. if you're gonna run it give it a good effort i say.

I agree 100% - all these caluclators and race predictors don't mean anything in the big scheme of things. Off the top of my head I could name at least four guys that have not run under 24:00 and ALL are in the 2:18-2:22 range.

BJP wrote:

I agree 100% - all these caluclators and race predictors don't mean anything in the big scheme of things. Off the top of my head I could name at least four guys that have not run under 24:00 and ALL are in the 2:18-2:22 range.

I could name at least four thousand people who have not broken 24:00, but not very many of them have run 2:18-2:22.

that wasn't too witty of a come back college lad. perhaps you should try and take some 100 level courses then come back and try again.

Will this be your marathon debut? If it is I think a conservative effort that leaves a little on the table but has you finishing strong is preferable to going out over your head and limping home. You'll probably get 20 different opinions on that theory here :-)

The big thing to figure out as you move up in distance is are you more of a 3k/5k/10k guy or more of a 10k/half marathon/marathon guy. If you handle the distances better (relatively) than the shorter stuff, then you can be a little more aggressive on your marathon splits. If as you move up you find the half marathon/30k doesn't leave you with much left at the end then you need to race a marathon more conservatively. The race pace calculator at runningtimes.com translates your 8k effort into 2:21:55. Start your training with that in mind and adjust based on the data you get through this fall. If you continue to improve, as the "8k pace faster than 3k pr pace" indicates you are, then sub 2:20 may be a reasonable goal for next spring.

These pace calculators are good for a start, but like anything completely numbers based they don't take into account one's personal strengths. To give you some perspective, one of my former runners who graduated 4 years ago ran his first marathon this May. Based on a recent 5k pr the race pace calculators said to expect 2:35. Based on a recent 15k the calculators said to expect 2:39. He ended up running 2:32, which the calculator says should translate to a 25:40 8k. I'm pretty sure he has not yet broken 26:00 for 8k.

Best wishes for your training!

Thank you for an informative post. All the guys above who say their 24 8k guys busted 2:20 easy probably trained for 2 to 3 years before doing so. And that is optimal training to achieve an optimal result. This guy will only have a year and a half under his belt and he's supposed to achieve BEYOND the curve?

It's a good thing there are coaches.

You'll need to reevaluate based on your performance in a tuneup race. It depends on whether you can make ground in shorter distances between now and then.

According to the WAVA tables, a performance of 24:00 in the 8k gets the same rating as a 2:21 marathon for an open class male. Most people, especially first time marathoners, get worse WAVA scores in the marathon than in shorter distances partly because of relative lack of preparation, and partly because the records that the tables are based on were set by Tergat and Radcliffe -- experienced runners, with exceptional fatigue resistance and high mileage training. Again, I can't emphasise this enough -- most first time marathoners do not do as well as these "prediction formulas" might suggest.

So based on that 8k performance, I'd say that sub 2:20 is an ambitious goal unless you can improve your fitness. If you can run a half-marathon about 3 weeks out, that would make it easier to set a goal. 2:25 or so is more realistic.

I'd question these anecdotes about people with slow 8k times and fast marathons -- I'd bet that most of them are either masters

athletes or women (better at holding speed), or they don't run 8k very often so their 8k PRs are soft, or their 8k times are for cross and not road.

He has nothing to gain by lying...

What you said also makes a lot of sense. I think it is risky to set your sights too low, but aiming for what a formula or book tells you that you "should" be running though. You said a lot of good stuff though. Anyway, I would like to mention that the 24 minute guys I mentioned were all fairly young... late 20's. It is true that they are all fairly high mileage guys though.