Seventy two days until the New York marathon, here are 72 profiles, one per day

I made a mistake that i won't make again, earlier this year, when Jared Ward was entered to run Boston: I grossly underestimated his ability and thought he might have finished 23rd on the day. He will turn 31 before this marathon, is ranked 206, and will be top six here. Was 6th here two years ago in 2.12.24 but will need to be quicker to finish ahead of Rachik of Italy and Robinson of Australia here. His best on a record eligible course was at the Rio Olympics, 6th in 2.11.30.

Sixth lady should be Sinead Diver, 42yo and ranked 102. Led in London for a lot of the race and finishing 7th in 2.24.11 was no disgrace in the class of that field. Keeps improving her pb’s over this distance and the half each year into her forties.

Seventh finisher may be Yassine Rachik of Italy, who is 26yo and ranked 126. Was 9th in London in 2.08.05, taking 4.04 off his pb. Three weeks later won a European half marathon, then the next two fortnights won another two, the last one in Olomouc. That half had usually been won by East Africans in previous years, but this year had a euro only policy and the times, understandably, were decidedly slower. Rachik's winning time of 64.26 would not have been top 3 the previous two years there. It would have given him second in 2016, but 3.40 adrift of the winner.

Seventh woman and first American will be Desi Linden, 36yo and ranked 116. Was fifth in Boston in 2.27.00 after winning it last year. Was sixth here last year in 2.27.51. Will have to be quicker this year because I think there are 11 women capable of finishing under 2.26.10. Her PB on a course eligible for records is 2.25.55 in Houston in 2012. Also has run 2.32.38 at Boston in 2011, finishing second. Her IAAF profile is under Desiree Davila.

Next across the line should be Jack Rayner, 23yo and ranked 256. Had a successful debut in London, finishing 14th in 2.11.06. Paced himself better than the three runners who finished 11th to 13th: his compatriot Brett Robinson and two very experienced and well-credentialled marathoners in Wanjiru and Kipsang. They were all fading, all taking over 67 min to run the second half while Jack came back in under 66. The IAAF site still credits him as the winner of the Sunshine Coast half in his profile, even though he was DQ'ed.

Alll wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

The first woman over the line looks to be a battle in two. Vivian or Gladys.

Don't for get about Joyciline. She's getting in shape

Eighth lady may be Joyciline Jepkosgei in her debut. More soon.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Alll wrote:

Don't for get about Joyciline. She's getting in shape

Eighth lady may be Joyciline Jepkosgei in her debut. More soon.

Funny story prior to April this year. Joyciline was slated to make her long awaited debut at Hamburg on the same day that the London marathon is on. Was aiming for 2.22 which is reasonable for a runner who in 2017 won two of the biggest halfs, both in under 65 min. Jepkosgei ended up being a pacer in London because, i believe, she didn't think she could beat Dibabe Kuma in Hamburg. Kuma is running the half in Copenhagen in 10 days.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Whoops, wrong city this fall. This should be Worknesh Degefa v Mary Keitany

Mary is a marathon legend. So consistent over the last decade. Is now 37 and ranked 16. Has seven major wins, 3 more than the next most prolific. Four wins here including last year when she negative split the distance by 10 percent. Two of her wins here were by more than 3 minutes. Mary was 5th in London this year. In 2015 here ran miles 21 to 23 in 15.42. Has an amazing record at the half as well, unbeaten from 2009 to 2016.

Runs the half at the Great North Run to warm up this weekend v Brigid Kosgei. What a cracker.

The timing is delightful to talk about the next finisher. Yoshiki Takenouchi will need to get back near to his best to finish 9th here. He is 27yo and ranked 773. Pb of 2.10.01 was behind Sondre Moen in Fukuoka 2017. Since then has only run 2.20.29 in Lake Biwa Otsu last year, finishing 30th, soon before the women.

Next woman and second American could well be Kellyn Taylor. Here is my profile from Prague this year where she was 4th, more than a km behind the winner: A chance for second among the females is Kellyn Taylor (Johnson). 32yo and ranked 166, Kellyn set her PB of 2.24.29 in winning Grandma’s marathon at Duluth, Minnesota last year. This was more than four minutes off her previous PB. In 2017 ran in majors in London and New York. At 20 years of age, ran 12.23 for 100 metres on the track.

Kellyn has since had a birthday and is ranked 88.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Seventh woman and first American will be Desi Linden, 36yo and ranked 116. Was fifth in Boston in 2.27.00 after winning it last year. Was sixth here last year in 2.27.51. Will have to be quicker this year because I think there are 11 women capable of finishing under 2.26.10. Her PB on a course eligible for records is 2.25.55 in Houston in 2012. Also has run 2.32.38 at Boston in 2011, finishing second. Her IAAF profile is under Desiree Davila.

I mentioned here that eleven women in this field could run 2.26.10 but the last two years the women were at halfway outside 1.15. Surely they go faster earlier this year.

Brett Robinson might be top ten here and will be second Australian if he can put a lid on the first half of this event. Finished 13th in London in 2.10.55 after passing halfway in 63.25. That is quicker than his one and only half that he has run. He is 28yo and ranked 458. See that ranking plummet under 100 after a good result here.

Completing the top ten women and the first 20 profiles is the same woman who i chose to finish 10th in Boston. Here is that preview: Aussiestatman wrote:

Mary Wacera could be the 10th placed woman, making her debut at the distance. Mary will warm up for it by running the New York Half on March 17, along with Des Linden and Mary Kiplagat. Wacera was previously married to Stanley Wanjiru, who held the half marathon record as an 18yo and won the Olympic marathon in 2008 , but sadly died aged 24. Mary already has a half marathon under her belt this year, finishing 9th in Houston. Wacera’s best time at the half of 66.23 is the fastest ever run by a woman on US soil, but is just 35 sec faster than Mary Keitany ran the second half of the Chicago marathon last year.

Mary was 7th then in 2.28.33, i think she has a 2.30 improvement in her here.

Eleventh across the line may be Arne Gabius, 38yo and ranked 309 if the runs like its Frankfurt and not Paris. His best time is 2.08.33 in 2015, finishing 4th in you know where. This year he was 7th in Hanover in 2.14.29 then one week (yes, just 7 days) later: finished among the women in Paris, 33rd in 2.28.35. In 2017 was 6th, again in Frankfurt in 2.09.59. This last Saturday, he was 13th over 10k in Prague and is running Copenhagen half next Sunday, but won’t be in my thread about that event because he is unlikely to be top 15 there.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Seventh woman and first American will be Desi Linden, 36yo and ranked 116. Was fifth in Boston in 2.27.00 after winning it last year. Was sixth here last year in 2.27.51. Will have to be quicker this year because I think there are 11 women capable of finishing under 2.26.10. Her PB on a course eligible for records is 2.25.55 in Houston in 2012. Also has run 2.32.38 at Boston in 2011, finishing second. Her IAAF profile is under Desiree Davila.

I mentioned here that eleven women in this field could run 2.26.10 but the last two years the women were at halfway outside 1.15. Surely they go faster earlier this year.

Last of my eleven and a surprise improver will be Gerda Steyn, born 1990 so is either 28 or 29yo and ranked 295. Gerda was 13th last year here in 2.31.04. Almost 5 minutes is a big chunk to take out of that PB but running the half in 4th place in 1.11.54 just 7 weeks ago augurs well, IMHO. That was after making her debut over that distance in Feb at RAK, finishing 9th in 72.35.

I am a big Gerda fan I just wish she would concentrate on the marathon as could be truly world class. She is unbeatable at the Two Oceans and Comrades now she should focus on the marathon and eventually run low 2:20's. New York will suit her she thrives on racing and tough courses.

Twelfth finisher should be Daniel Mesfun of Eritrea, 31yo and ranked 194. I chose him last of my 30 profiles for Boston where he was 14th in 2.13.05. Last year he was 6th in Toronto in 2.10.06. This last Jan, he won a half in Tempe, Arizona in 61.13.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Twelfth finisher should be Daniel Mesfun of Eritrea, 31yo and ranked 194. I chose him last of my 30 profiles for Boston where he was 14th in 2.13.05. Last year he was 6th in Toronto in 2.10.06. This last Jan, he won a half in Tempe, Arizona in 61.13.

Running a half in Philly this weekend.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Fourth this year should be the man that was third last year, Geoffrey Kamworor. He is 26yo and ranked 54. He won here in 2017. He is planning to run the Copenhagen half marathon on Sept 15 as a lead up. His best marathon time of 2.06.12 was set in 2012, third in Berlin. He has three other times under 2.07 in majors.

Good win tonight, still 4th here!