Official Pikes Peak Discussion Thread

S. Canaday wrote:

Is the course different/slower nowadays?

Matt's record is basically impossible IMO. Joe Gray was in great shape when he did a flat-out Ascent win in 2:05 and it still wasn't really that close to Matt's halfway spit! Now Matt's Leadville record is very beatable I think (and his time at MT. WA was as well obviously).

Not even Kilian after 2:25 at Sierre-Zinal will get a sub 3:16 I don't think.

I mean maybe he gets it (I didn't think he'd be able to run 2:25 at SZ either!), but best case scenario I see is that

he's up in 2:05-2:04 and then down in 1:14 for a 3:18-3:19 or so. Dakota absolutely cooked the downhill last year...but one can only go so fast on that trail.

One issue with The Barr Trail is that the downhill is not very steep or technical for a mountain goat like Kilian. Kilian shines at steeper and more technical trails. You're also passing the entire field head on...which can be a bit scary. He does appear to be very "runnable trail" trained and high altitude trained though as one must have some major wheels at Sierre-Zinal.

I thought at Sierre-Zinal he'd maybe sneak at 2:29 and he surprised with a 2:25. Jono Wyatt's record there was legendary (remember he was a 27:50 10km guy who was a monster climber....also the CR at Mt. WA in 56-min which is 2-min faster than Joe and I have ever gone there).

So its possible Kilian gets the record, but honestly I'd be surprised if he broke 3:20. Might depend on the weather conditions (temperature, wind and air pressure).

I don't think anybody else (myself included) has much of a shot at going under 3:28-3:30. However, with so many great international guys here this year as part of the GTS series there could be a lot of sub 3:40s again....and that would probably make it the most competitive (depth of top 10 at least) Pikes Peak Marathon ever.

Same thing with the women's side. CR holder Meaghan Kimmel is back, but she got the women's record by only mere seconds last year. It can be very marginal with climbing ability when it comes to the super high altitude.

KillerKilian wrote:

if Kilian get's the record - no surprise.

if Kilian doesn't get the record - then the course got slower.

S. Canaday wrote:

Is the course different/slower nowadays?

Matt's record is basically impossible IMO. Joe Gray was in great shape when he did a flat-out Ascent win in 2:05 and it still wasn't really that close to Matt's halfway spit! Now Matt's Leadville record is very beatable I think (and his time at MT. WA was as well obviously).

Not even Kilian after 2:25 at Sierre-Zinal will get a sub 3:16 I don't think.

I mean maybe he gets it (I didn't think he'd be able to run 2:25 at SZ either!), but best case scenario I see is that

he's up in 2:05-2:04 and then down in 1:14 for a 3:18-3:19 or so. Dakota absolutely cooked the downhill last year...but one can only go so fast on that trail.

One issue with The Barr Trail is that the downhill is not very steep or technical for a mountain goat like Kilian. Kilian shines at steeper and more technical trails. You're also passing the entire field head on...which can be a bit scary. He does appear to be very "runnable trail" trained and high altitude trained though as one must have some major wheels at Sierre-Zinal.

I thought at Sierre-Zinal he'd maybe sneak at 2:29 and he surprised with a 2:25. Jono Wyatt's record there was legendary (remember he was a 27:50 10km guy who was a monster climber....also the CR at Mt. WA in 56-min which is 2-min faster than Joe and I have ever gone there).

So its possible Kilian gets the record, but honestly I'd be surprised if he broke 3:20. Might depend on the weather conditions (temperature, wind and air pressure).

I don't think anybody else (myself included) has much of a shot at going under 3:28-3:30. However, with so many great international guys here this year as part of the GTS series there could be a lot of sub 3:40s again....and that would probably make it the most competitive (depth of top 10 at least) Pikes Peak Marathon ever.

Same thing with the women's side. CR holder Meaghan Kimmel is back, but she got the women's record by only mere seconds last year. It can be very marginal with climbing ability when it comes to the super high altitude.

KillerKilian wrote:

if Kilian get's the record - no surprise.

if Kilian doesn't get the record - then the course got slower.

Just Another Run of the Mill ex-D1 er wrote:

It's that time of year again - time to start the Pikes Peak discussion. For starters, some interesting historical tidbits:

***Ned Overend - first ever World Mountain Bike Champion (1990), finished 2nd twice in the full in '80 and '81. (He also won some other big mountain races prior to the switchover, which was due to knee issues I believe)

***Pat Porter, YES THE LEGENDARY CROSS COUNTRY STAR PAT PORTER, won the ascent (half) in 1981, never to return. For perspective, his winning time was 2:12, Matt Carpenter's all-time ascent record (set as a split in the full in '93) is 2:01.

***Nobody has ever come close to that ascent before or since, even Matt himself. It appears Ricardo Mejia (Matt's nemesis) hit 2:05 twice, another Mexican teammate of Ricardo edged him to the summit once in 2:04:high, and Joe Gray hit a 2:05 once (ascent-only). A couple of others dipped under 2:10 here and there, and Sage won the ascent-only in 2:10:low once.

***Matt appears to have won the ascent-only and full more times than I have fingers and toes. He also went home DEVASTATED (not far - a couple blocks from the finish line) a fair number of times too - still finishing top 10 but well off the pace. It would seem his destiny was to live, eat, breathe this race. His final win (and last start) was in 2011 - at 47 years old!

***The full record, 3:16, set by Matt in '93, has only been approached once - by Ricardo in 3:21 ('95). And only Ricardo has broken 3:30 more than once.

***Matt's downhill split of 1:15 ('93) also held up all the way until last year when Dakota Jones went 1:13:high (differential less than 2 minutes). Dakota needed all of it to eek out a victory over several others who beat him to the summit. Overall winning time 3:32 - impressive but still nowhere close to the record.

***After dueling with Matt at PP throughout most of the 90's, Ricardo hit the Alps in the late 90's/early 2000's, racking up 4 wins at Sierre-Zinal for example, and several wins at the Jungfrau marathon (another massive climbing race). He was upper 30's/early 40's at the time, and continues to win the masters division at S-Z to this day.

***In 2012 Kilian made his first appearance, with roughly half the world or more (everyone outside the states) declaring the CR was toast now that "a real athlete" was running. Result: summit split 2:18:high (well off record), descent split 1:20:high (5ish minutes off), final 3:40 (24 minutes off CR). Translated to distance, roughly 3 MILES off CR. WOW! To be fair, I drove down to watch the finish and it was clear he was only running for the World Cup points win, but the time gap was still surprising.

But so much for then, what about now? One word - Kilian! While I don't know all the latest scuttle on possible late entries/scratches (everyone else can chime in here - Sage?), if Kilian runs like he did at S-Z it hardly seems to matter. The only thing that does seem to matter is Kilian vs the almighty 3:16. Discuss!

memories in a trunk wrote:

Just Another Run of the Mill ex-D1 er wrote:

It's that time of year again - time to start the Pikes Peak discussion. For starters, some interesting historical tidbits:

***Ned Overend - first ever World Mountain Bike Champion (1990), finished 2nd twice in the full in '80 and '81. (He also won some other big mountain races prior to the switchover, which was due to knee issues I believe)

***Pat Porter, YES THE LEGENDARY CROSS COUNTRY STAR PAT PORTER, won the ascent (half) in 1981, never to return. For perspective, his winning time was 2:12, Matt Carpenter's all-time ascent record (set as a split in the full in '93) is 2:01.

***Nobody has ever come close to that ascent before or since, even Matt himself. It appears Ricardo Mejia (Matt's nemesis) hit 2:05 twice, another Mexican teammate of Ricardo edged him to the summit once in 2:04:high, and Joe Gray hit a 2:05 once (ascent-only). A couple of others dipped under 2:10 here and there, and Sage won the ascent-only in 2:10:low once.

***Matt appears to have won the ascent-only and full more times than I have fingers and toes. He also went home DEVASTATED (not far - a couple blocks from the finish line) a fair number of times too - still finishing top 10 but well off the pace. It would seem his destiny was to live, eat, breathe this race. His final win (and last start) was in 2011 - at 47 years old!

***The full record, 3:16, set by Matt in '93, has only been approached once - by Ricardo in 3:21 ('95). And only Ricardo has broken 3:30 more than once.

***Matt's downhill split of 1:15 ('93) also held up all the way until last year when Dakota Jones went 1:13:high (differential less than 2 minutes). Dakota needed all of it to eek out a victory over several others who beat him to the summit. Overall winning time 3:32 - impressive but still nowhere close to the record.

***After dueling with Matt at PP throughout most of the 90's, Ricardo hit the Alps in the late 90's/early 2000's, racking up 4 wins at Sierre-Zinal for example, and several wins at the Jungfrau marathon (another massive climbing race). He was upper 30's/early 40's at the time, and continues to win the masters division at S-Z to this day.

***In 2012 Kilian made his first appearance, with roughly half the world or more (everyone outside the states) declaring the CR was toast now that "a real athlete" was running. Result: summit split 2:18:high (well off record), descent split 1:20:high (5ish minutes off), final 3:40 (24 minutes off CR). Translated to distance, roughly 3 MILES off CR. WOW! To be fair, I drove down to watch the finish and it was clear he was only running for the World Cup points win, but the time gap was still surprising.

But so much for then, what about now? One word - Kilian! While I don't know all the latest scuttle on possible late entries/scratches (everyone else can chime in here - Sage?), if Kilian runs like he did at S-Z it hardly seems to matter. The only thing that does seem to matter is Kilian vs the almighty 3:16. Discuss!

Nice post! I'm glad you mentioned Mejia - I don't think he gets nearly enough credit. He was really the one that dominated the marathon in the 1990s and not Carpenter. He ran it 6 times between 1990 and 1997 and won 5 His only loss was to Carpenter the year he set his record.

I believe Mejia still has 5 of the 10 fastest times on the current marathon course. And I believe he and Matt only went head to head 3 times, in 1990, 1992 and 1993. In 1992 Mejia ran 3:24 and beat Matt by 20 minutes. In 1993 Carpenter turned the tables in his record setting performance and won by an even larger margin. And in 1990 Mejia won and Matt finished 5th after already winning the ascent. It's too bad they did not compete more often as Mejia was really the only runner that could give Matt a run for his money in his prime.

I think these are the top 10 fastest times since 1976 when the current course was established. Legendary Native American mountain runner Al Waquie won in 1981 and 1982. There are 6 sub-3:30 performances so I'm not sure Carpenter's record is quite as untouchable as everyone seems to think.

Matt Carpenter, 3:16.39, 1993

Ricardo Mejia, 3:21.32, 1995

Ricardo Mejia, 3:24.25, 1992

Al Waquie, 3:26.17, 1981

Ricardo Mejia, 3:29.22, 1996

Al Waquie, 3:29.53, 1982

Ricardo Mejia, 3:30.55, 1997

Matt Carpenter, 3:33.07, 2006

Rick Trujillo , 3:34.15, 1976

Ricardo Mejia, 3:35.03, 1990

geargrinder wrote:

One thing to remember with Carpenter's record is that he basically ran it solo. Nobody near him. What might he have done if pushed?

I hope somebody tries to go with Kilian, even if they blow up.

The weather factor isn't mentioned enough here. Last year, when both men's and women's downhill records were set, there was significant rain the night before, which meant that the trail was in perfect shape. How much moisture is on the trail has more to do with how difficult it is than any deterioration that might have occurred since 93 (not much).

When it has been dry the trail gets much looser and gravelly and that slows both up and down times.

Most significant is the "air density" which is affected by altitude, temperature and barometric pressure. For example, the temp in Colorado Springs today was 91 degrees and the air density was the same as being at 9100 feet altitude (instead of the actual altitude of 6200 feet).

Some pictures of Carpenter at the top in 93 show him running on snow patches.

I can't wait for Sunday.

Just Another Run of the Mill ex-D1 er wrote:

Great points Sage, thanks for chiming in. I was going to point out the "passing the entire field head on" aspect of the descent too but it's a technical and nuanced point that only matters in a relative way. That is, all the top runners have to do it, so it has little to do with head to head competition or overall historic performances. To me it really only matters for understanding why the historic downhill splits are what they are - you can't just think "geeze 1:15 for a half marathon sounds pedestrian..." = wrong answer. There are so many more variables to deal with such as this and my personal favorite (?) - the final 3ish miles of "tourist-fence switchbacks", boy do those ever put a crimp in your downhill style. It all adds up to wildly variable "pacing" (if you can even call it that, more like a very long fartlek workout). You just go as fast as you can as terrain permits.

Good luck in the race yourself - 3:30 would be huge for you (or anyone)! I'll probably head down to watch the finish with all the hoopla going on.