Official Pikes Peak Discussion Thread

I was going to reply "so what" upon glancing at the thread title, but the way you presented the historical background of the race left me in awe of these runners and their abilities.

Seriously, climbing and descending at approximately a 2:1 time ratio is really impressive. Where is pikes peak?

I'd read that Kilian had done some more "flat running" workouts this year prior to Sierre Zinal, though I can't seem to find exactly what he did. Has anyone found where these workouts are documented?

Regardless, S-Z makes it clear he is in very good shape -- even for him, and especially in 'runnable' stuff. As mentioned in the S-Z thread, he seems to look smoother. Maybe we'll never really answer that fun question posed on these message boards titled "what can kilian run on a marathon?" but maybe we can get closer to an accurate approximation. I know at SZ, Kilian must have wanted to lead right from the start, and so he went out to the front immediately on the flat beginning. I was kind of surprised some of the 'speed' guys didn't try the same tactic -- kilian usually wins on the uphill/descents, so someone like Wacker or King or even Walmsley's best bet to win would be to go fast at the beginning. Sage, you were there, did Kilian seem particularly better on the flats, or was he just in better shape all-around -- maybe from racing less.

But maybe this is besides the point. PP is not flat! 3:16 is an incredible record and KJ's 3:40 is quite a ways away, even if it wasn't all out. I am going to disregard all the talk about the trail being slower now due to its being degraded or whatever. Let's just assume it's the same. Jono Wyatt's record at SZ was also quite strong at 3:29. KJ's previous best there was 3:31, and he ran 3:25 last week. so he improved by 6 minutes. Let's imagine the 3:29 (old CR at SZ) and the 3:16 are equivalent. Let's say KJ was just running for the win when he did 3:40 and we'll be generous and say if he'd gone for it, let's say he'd have run 3:31. Imagine he also improves by 6 minutes. But since this is his second time on the trial, let's give him another 5 minutes for "experience." (He ran SZ so many times already; there wasn't any extra time to be gleaned from experience.) So we have KJ down to 3:20. I'll just give him a minute for fun, so my guess for him is 3:19. Good for the second-best time ever. but just missing the MC's CR.

Rhdndnfkdl wrote:

Where is pikes peak?

Colorado Springs, CO.

mikli wrote:

I'd read that Kilian had done some more "flat running" workouts this year prior to Sierre Zinal, though I can't seem to find exactly what he did. Has anyone found where these workouts are documented?

As far as I know most recently he did that 10km (70m elevation) in 31:40 (right after a fast VK).

In the spring he's run a 5km in 15:20 for the win on some smooth flat trails/roads. And a few days before that he had done 3*5000 average between 3:05 and 3:10/km.

That is what he posted on social media..

Kilian goes sub-2 and LetsRun.com melts down.

Seriously, if he attacks Pikes like he did Sierre-Zinal, game over.

1:59:28 Ascent, 1:11:02 Descent

Another way to look at it is by comparing other races as his 3.40, despite it being his only attempt, only racing for points, nobody pushing him etc etc still seems a pedestrian (for him).

SZ 31km 2200m – CR 2.25

MB 42km 2780m – CR 3.30 (KJB)

PP 42km 2382m – CR 3.16

SZ vs PP

+182m + 11km

51mins more…

The vert is much more spaced out but the altitude is higher. On current form I think it’s doable…

MB 42km 2780m – CR 3.30 (KJB)

This is the most comparable race for time. MB packs in more vert and is more technical over the same distance and his time is only 14mins away...

PP has 400m less climbing (significant), he is more in form and focussed, more experienced, trained specifically etc... 14mins doesn't seen crazy. I know you can't compare two different races but its enough to throw out his 3.40 effort

Woaw! I don't know who you are but that is awesome!

The guy has a training session named "Pikes Peak Carpenter".

This race is going fun to follow

These stats are definitely interesting, but the effects of altitude are the wildcard that cannot be overlooked. Running at 14k+ (4300 meters) is fun - I've done it often, but it definitely affects pace.

Another possible comparison would be to Ricardo's S-Z PR (apologies to him - in

my original post I noted he won S-Z 4 times, actually it was 5). His PR there is 2:30:59 - or just over 5 minutes off Kilian's new CR. This is roughly the same time he's off the PPM CR, but of course for 11K shorter. Perhaps also relevant is he was 38yo at the time - maybe a hair outside his prime, who knows. But it's another comparative point of reference.

As far as final predictions - hard call but I don't see Kilian summiting under 2 - I mean that'd be like "Breaking 2", and he runs in Salomon's not VaporFlys (?). Seriously though, Matt was an altitude monster, as Sage has noted before both he and Joe Gray have beaten Matt's PR at the Mt Washington road race (big vert but low elevation) by a minute or so, but neither have come close to his PP ascent record. BUT as long as Kilian can summit in 2:05 or under he'll be in the driver's seat to take down the record. We'll see!

Ricardo's PRs are definitely the best comparison and they suggest he has a shot at what was once thought as an unbreakable record. But you're right, altitude is definitely going to be the biggest factor. Also something we always forget until last minute, the weather... if it's too hot, a plus 3hr effort, it's not going down.

Do you know the temperatures when MC set the record?

I also think his best strategy is to stay within touching distance for the summit, and make up the ground on the way down. However, he surprised us all by destroying the big climb at SZ, which ultimately won him the race and record.

Rhdndnfkdl wrote:

I was going to reply "so what" upon glancing at the thread title, but the way you presented the historical background of the race left me in awe of these runners and their abilities.

Seriously, climbing and descending at approximately a 2:1 time ratio is really impressive. Where is pikes peak?

Although this post seems trollish, I clipped this directly off the race website for all to digest:

"Elevation gain (start to summit) is at 7,815' (2,382m); the start is at 6,300' (1,920m) and the summit is 14,115' (4,302m). The Ascent finish/Marathon turnaround is at approximately 14,050'. The Ascent (and ascent leg of the Marathon) has very few stretches which are not going uphill, with the average grade being 11%.

The races begin in front of the City Hall in Manitou Springs, Colorado. While both races begin in the city (and the Marathon finishes in the city) the majority of both races are run on Barr Trail, a US Forest Service trail that is on the east face of Pikes Peak. The race courses do not use any part of the famed Pikes Peak Highway. The trail is often narrow, winding, and may be gravel, rocks or dirt with sharp turns and abrupt changes in elevation or direction. However, there are no exposed ledges, so there is little danger of falling off the trail!"

Killian will win the full in 3:26:14.. he’s not coming close to the record or the ascent record.

Just Another Run of the Mill ex-D1 er wrote:

Rhdndnfkdl wrote:

I was going to reply "so what" upon glancing at the thread title, but the way you presented the historical background of the race left me in awe of these runners and their abilities.

Seriously, climbing and descending at approximately a 2:1 time ratio is really impressive. Where is pikes peak?

Although this post seems trollish, I clipped this directly off the race website for all to digest:

"Elevation gain (start to summit) is at 7,815' (2,382m); the start is at 6,300' (1,920m) and the summit is 14,115' (4,302m). The Ascent finish/Marathon turnaround is at approximately 14,050'. The Ascent (and ascent leg of the Marathon) has very few stretches which are not going uphill, with the average grade being 11%.

Oh hell NO!

REAL. wrote:

Kilian goes sub-2 and LetsRun.com melts down.

Seriously, if he attacks Pikes like he did Sierre-Zinal, game over.

1:59:28 Ascent, 1:11:02 Descent

There is no way Killian will do a 1:59 up Lololol. He won’t even sub 2:10 up dude!

if Kilian get's the record - no surprise.

if Kilian doesn't get the record - then the course got slower.

Alavisca wrote:

Ricardo's PRs are definitely the best comparison and they suggest he has a shot at what was once thought as an unbreakable record. But you're right, altitude is definitely going to be the biggest factor. Also something we always forget until last minute, the weather... if it's too hot, a plus 3hr effort, it's not going down.

Do you know the temperatures when MC set the record?

I also think his best strategy is to stay within touching distance for the summit, and make up the ground on the way down. However, he surprised us all by destroying the big climb at SZ, which ultimately won him the race and record.

"Do you know the temperatures when MC set the record?" - I don't off-hand, but it might be on the PP website or Matt's personal pages somewhere, I'll rummage around for it later. In my experience (raced it once) - the temps only really come into play on the descent below the Barr camp (roughly 20M mark). It's still cool down low at race start, then temps above 10-11ish k (elev) are never really that high, so it's only the last 6 miles back down to town where things can start to heat up. I finished over an hour slower than these kind of times, and that extra hour meant somewhat higher temps than he'll likely encounter.

"However, he surprised us all by destroying the big climb at SZ, which ultimately won him the race and record." - True, but from what I understand he was still a shade off Jono's highpoint split (heard 40 seconds). Regardless, this crushed the competition and put him in the driver's seat to destroy the CR with a better descent, so if he can do the same at PP the final result will likely be the same.

Rhdndnfkdl wrote:

Just Another Run of the Mill ex-D1 er wrote:

Although this post seems trollish, I clipped this directly off the race website for all to digest:

"Elevation gain (start to summit) is at 7,815' (2,382m); the start is at 6,300' (1,920m) and the summit is 14,115' (4,302m). The Ascent finish/Marathon turnaround is at approximately 14,050'. The Ascent (and ascent leg of the Marathon) has very few stretches which are not going uphill, with the average grade being 11%.

Oh hell NO!

"Oh hell NO!" - this is pretty much what most in the know mountain runners think when they learn Matt's CR is 3:16, it just seems like from another planet.

My man. This was a hell of a breakdown. My brother is doing the ascent, I saw his garmin stats, the trail up is outrageous, hard to wrap my head around. 8,000+ ft of climb across 13.1 miles. Topping out over 14,000..what an event!

Look forward to following along.

Is the course different/slower nowadays? Matt's record is basically impossible IMO. Joe Gray was in great shape when he did a flat-out Ascent win in 2:05 and it still wasn't really that close to Matt's halfway spit! Now Matt's Leadville record is very beatable I think (and his time at MT. WA was as well obviously). Not even Kilian after 2:25 at Sierre-Zinal will get a sub 3:16 I don't think. I mean maybe he gets it (I didn't think he'd be able to run 2:25 at SZ either!), but best case scenario I see is that he's up in 2:05-2:04 and then down in 1:14 for a 3:18-3:19 or so. Dakota absolutely cooked the downhill last year...but one can only go so fast on that trail. One issue with The Barr Trail is that the downhill is not very steep or technical for a mountain goat like Kilian. Kilian shines at steeper and more technical trails. You're also passing the entire field head on...which can be a bit scary. He does appear to be very "runnable trail" trained and high altitude trained though as one must have some major wheels at Sierre-Zinal. I thought at Sierre-Zinal he'd maybe sneak at 2:29 and he surprised with a 2:25. Jono Wyatt's record there was legendary (remember he was a 27:50 10km guy who was a monster climber....also the CR at Mt. WA in 56-min which is 2-min faster than Joe and I have ever gone there). So its possible Kilian gets the record, but honestly I'd be surprised if he broke 3:20. Might depend on the weather conditions (temperature, wind and air pressure). I don't think anybody else (myself included) has much of a shot at going under 3:28-3:30. However, with so many great international guys here this year as part of the GTS series there could be a lot of sub 3:40s again....and that would probably make it the most competitive (depth of top 10 at least) Pikes Peak Marathon ever. Same thing with the women's side. CR holder Meaghan Kimmel is back, but she got the women's record by only mere seconds last year. It can be very marginal with climbing ability when it comes to the super high altitude.

KillerKilian wrote:

if Kilian get's the record - no surprise.

if Kilian doesn't get the record - then the course got slower.

KillerKilian wrote:

if Kilian get's the record - no surprise.

if Kilian doesn't get the record - then the course got slower.

Last year after the race several people commented that the lower sections are much more technical now than they were when Carpenter was setting his records.