Hardloper wrote:
Looks like an informative preview which predicted a top three that (correctly) did not include Houlihan
I agree that their story did a good job of laying out where the uncertainties lay. But their prediction was way off.
Their prediction was: 1) Obiri; 2) Hassan; 3) Dibaba; 4 (or lower) Muir. This prediction implies how each runner would do compared to every other runner: O would beat H, D & M, H would beat D & M, and D would beat M. Of these six pairs, they only predicted the winner in two pairs: As they predicted, Hassan beat Muir and Dibaba beat Muir. They were wrong about Obiri versus everyone, and about Hasan beating Dibaba.
Looked at this way, they got two predictions right, and four wrong. In other words, they only got 1/3 right -- they would have better off flipping coins.
Another way to put this is that they were as wrong as they could be about Obiri -- instead of beating the other three, she lost to all of them. And they were wrong about Dibaba and Hassan.