How come WR fast runners don't just go at their fastest possible paces in the olympics?

accustomed winner wrote:

Obviously, OP has never lead a race.

Indeed. Also, seems to have a limited imagination for what it might be like to lead a race.

Heartland Runner wrote:

I think the issue is consistency. If Gerrouj could go out and front run a 3:26.00 anytime he wanted then it probably would have been the best way to win gold. However, to run a WR you need a lot of factors in place including weather, pacing and some things you can't plan like just how good you end up feeling that day. The difference between 3:26 and 3:29 as a PR is huge but the difference between a 3:26 guy and a bunch of 3:29 guys on one given day may not be that much. With that in mind I think racing as opposed to time trailing at the championships probably leads to a higher chance of victory at least in the minds of the elites and their coaches.

Let's be clear, Guerrouj did run 3:26 a number of occasions. The issue is the rounds tiring you.

The answer is that in the Olympics all of the competitors are the best in the world and at their peaks.

And there is a distinct advantage to drafting off of someone at a good pace for the majority of the race.

The advantage negates a slight advantage in fitness.

No rabbits in the Olympics means no help for that first half of the race.

You can lead wire to wire if you are significantly better than the field.

In 2004, Lagat had the 1500m world lead in 3:27 and was ranked #1 on the year for a full season's of work.

El G wasn't going rabbit him in the Olympic final. And that plan worked.

Ngeny almost beat El G in the world record mile run in 1999.

He was too good to lead him the next year in the Olympics.

I agree that Bekele maybe should have pushed the 5000 pace in 2004.

But he was coming off of a 10,000 double and was being chased by El G, the 1500 champ and Kipchoge who beat them both in 12:52, the fastest 5000 championship time ever the year before.

Would you want them sitting on your back for 12 laps?

Bekele pushed the later laps after starting slow in 2008 and it worked brilliantly.

Kiprop has an Olympic Gold medal and three World Championship Gold medals from sitting back and blasting the field.

I understand going with that strategy again.

The one time a fast pace worked in a finals was the 1999 1500.

El G had a countryman that made the final act as rabbit and set a fast pace where he held off Ngeny 3:27 to 3:28.

But without that early pace setting, El G wasn't going to make it a 3:27 race on his own.

This is just egregiously false to think you can go try to replicate your PR race alone from the front and there is little risk that it will go poorly for you in the end and that no one else will be able to run on your shoulder and outkick you.

Evdawg wrote:

I'm saying that if you're running at such a speed that you approach WR, there's a very low likelihood of being outkicked unless you have some sort of problem occur with lactic acid buildup or injury-related issue.

Because the point of the Olympics is to win. It doesn't matter if you win the gold with a 15:10 5,000m as long as you win. The same is true for every championship race, even a district or state championship, the point it is to get the W not post flashy times. (IF you have to bust it to get the W so be it, but the win is tantamount to the time.)

The Olympics are not a time trial. There are like a hundred threads on this every time there's a WC or OG.

There's a fair amount on unpredictability when trying to run your fastest or near your fastest times. Running is a very fickle sport, some races you have it, some you don't, it's part of the sport, so why risk bonking in your most important races?

There are several reasons, and some other posters have alluded to them earlier.

Below is a short list;

1. Rounds - running against the best in the world multiple times in a few days is going to take it out of you.

2. Having to "peak" multiple times BEFORE the Olympics (NCAAs - if you are an American or pursuing a degree from the 'States, National Meet, hitting the Olympic standard.

3. Something that many people do NOT know is that OVER 70% of ALL Olympians UNDER-PERFORM at the Olympics.

4. Something like 10-15% of all athletes staying at the Olympic Village get sick.

If you add all these factors together you are going to have slower times.

When we watch Bekele or El Guerrouj or Kipchoge at WR pace, of course they are running fully clear of the field. They are on a perfect day, in perfect form and are going for it. Think about all of the other races these guys have done where they are not on the perfect day. They might still win, but they don't have enough to run away.

There isn't that much difference between a WR holder and a world class runner when the WR holder is not on a perfect day. What if the top guy's training isn't perfect coming into the Olympics? What if there is a nagging injury that most runners always deal with? What if you had a small illness earlier in the week? You can't pick the day of the Olympics like you can a WR attempt. Sitting and kicking is safer if you don't feel like today is the perfect day, which it rarely is.

All that said is true and sometimes they are just stupid and think they would outkick the Slow-Moes. In 2003 WC Kipchoge, Bekele, Al-Guerrouj, although Bekele led most of the time, it was nice to see how they made shifts in the leading, they forced Al-Guerrouj to take his turn. And they set a fast time as well, unlike Slow-Mo and Slowtrewitz.

And as said the great Almaz Ayana always uses this tactic and usually it works for her. In the 5k though she was to tired

Technically Speaking you're correct, I have never had the ability to lead a race (except a 400 and 200m heat where everyone else was slower and that's not really the same as the 5k). However, that's not to say that I've never had to pace myself or gone and ran in front of someone who outkicks me. In my second of three 3200m in the last track season I completely paced myself for most of the race and it's not like I don't understand the pain of running at that pace. In my final, you'll probably find this ironic but there were other circumstances , I took the lead ahead of someone else for 2 or 3 laps and then they outkicked me in the last lap or two. However, I had previously ran an 8 second mile PR just 45-60 minutes earlier, the person I was running against didn't run any other event that meet. No, I don't necessarily understand running at the front of the race in the olympics, but I'm not anywhere close to being the fastest in my team, league, district, or state and so it's not really comparable. I typically try to run my own race because it produces the best times and I haven't really been outkicked throughout the last season beside the one I mentioned.

What if it turns out you're not having a good day? If you go out at WR pace and you're not perfectly "on" there's a huge chance you won't medal at all. Sure, you may run close to a WR and win, but the odds are that you'll just tie up at some point and get passed by a good chunk of the field.

I think the point is that most athletes would periodize so that they would be at their peak fitness during the olympics. Also, I did mention, somewhere in here, Kiprop being injured in 2012, but at that point, if you have a bad enough nagging injury, you're probably not winning period, sit & kick or quick pacing.

The most obvious answer here is that in high level competitions front runners almost never win. There obviously have been a very few notable exceptions but unless you're significantly faster than the rest of the field someone who's almost as fast will be fresher at the end because you've drained yourself by leading and will outkick you. And as many others have mentioned, if you have a world record you almost certainly had rabbits taking you there. You have no experience of pacing yourself to that sort of time or of having run qualifying heats so you'd be trying to do something you've never done in the biggest race of your life. This topic comes up here constantly. Turn your question around. If anyone in a championship race thought your strategy would work why would they not use it? The answer is that they know it almost certainly will not work.

Paragraph wrote:

Because let's say Bekele can run 12:37 with pacers for 6k. But without pacers, he can only run 12:45.

Mo Farah in theory, can 12:45, or could have at peak.

So to him, Belele would be a rabbit and pacer the entire way.

Granted, this would assure most champions get top 2 or so at the worst, but they don't run for second.

Lastly, it's my belief that the results wouldn't change that much. I think Centro was in amazing shape the Olympics. He likely would have been near the front in any style of race.

I doubt that bekele wouldn't be able to run 12:37 without pacers because in his WR attempt he only had a pacer to 5:00, that means he had to run the large majority of the race at WR pace, by himself. I don't think there's any reason to believe that bekele couldn't run 12:40 even without pacers during his prime. We really can't be sure about Farah, there's the possibility that he really couldn't run that pace at all.

Of course they're running for gold but are they running for 3rd or 4th either, because getting outkicked by Galen Rupp isn't the optimum situation.

I mean he definitely able to run a good 400 time but based off his 4th place finish in 2012 and 5th avenue mile, I doubt that he was in the most amazing shape and I bet kiprop could've beat him if he paced it quickly.

They were paced most of the way en route to their WR performance. They didn't lead early on and conserved energy this setting WR.

Throwaflex1 wrote:

They were paced most of the way en route to their WR performance. They didn't lead early on and conserved energy this setting WR.

Yes, Gerrouj and Kiprop had some more pacing but in Bekele's race he didn't have much pacing at all and probably didn't play that much of an affect on the overall performance.

800ftw. wrote:

Heartland Runner wrote:

I think the issue is consistency. If Gerrouj could go out and front run a 3:26.00 anytime he wanted then it probably would have been the best way to win gold. However, to run a WR you need a lot of factors in place including weather, pacing and some things you can't plan like just how good you end up feeling that day. The difference between 3:26 and 3:29 as a PR is huge but the difference between a 3:26 guy and a bunch of 3:29 guys on one given day may not be that much. With that in mind I think racing as opposed to time trailing at the championships probably leads to a higher chance of victory at least in the minds of the elites and their coaches.

Let's be clear, Guerrouj did run 3:26 a number of occasions. The issue is the rounds tiring you.

But even El G couldn't run 3:26 without a rabbit. What's happening is that the best runner doesn't want to lead because the second best runner is good enough to draft on him and win with a kick. It's very hard to be so much better than an olympic field that you can let them draft on you the whole way and still win.

Bekele was third in 2003 in a race won in 12:52 by Kipchoge.

That is very fast.

Not even 10 years before that race, the word record was 12:58.

Yes he went on to run 12:37 early in 2004 but the Olympic 5000 final was after eh had won the 10,000.

He was facing a fresh Kipchoge who wasn't coming off of a double and ran 12:46 that year plus El G was in the final.

Bekele did not want to be Kipchoge's rabbit.

First, he wasn't sure if he could front run 12:45 after the 10 and he wasn't sure that was good enough to get away from Kipchoge.

So he tucked in where he could and the pace was slower.

And he did beat Kipchoge for Silver.

And you can't look at PRs and assume that is their max ability.

We don't know how fast El G could have run a 5000 because he only entered one rabbited race.

And we don't know how fast Kipchoge could run a 5000 because, although he ran in many fast races, he never ran really fast races where he couldn't keep up.

He usually won and it was often fast.

Juts liek we don't know how fast Farah can run a 5000 because he never tried to see.

I'll reference the kiprop in monaco race here, Kiprop was way ahead of the field which included Makhloufi, Centro and Farah as well as many other olympians and he was 10 meters ahead by the end, no one drafted him and outkicked. I'm also quite confused on the argument that El G couldn't run that fast without pacers, they are certainly helpful but it seems extremely doubtful that he just couldn't run any race close to that time without pacers. I think it would be possible that he could pace himself enough to be able to run 3:27, even if that's not 3:26