inferring Rupp's flat marathon ability from Boston

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  • saladbration
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 11:58am CDT
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    Rupp just ran a 2:09:58 in a Boston, on a day that seemed to run slow in terms of conditions.

    He was 21 seconds behind the 2:09:37 of Geoffrey Kirui, who has a recent 2:06:27 on a pancake course (Amsterdam). Kirui also has a 59:38 half and a 26:55 10,000.

    (Rupp also beat his 27:38/1:01:11 training partner, marathon debutant Suguru Osako, by 30 seconds.)

    Of course, that doesn't mean Rupp is just 21 seconds off of 2:06:27 ability. Kirui clearly didn't remotely need to go to the well for this win. He was able to put 20 seconds on Rupp at will, over the course of just a few miles. Kirui ran for the win, doing what he had to and not much more, and would of course have more of a gap than that in a flat-out time trial.

    In short, my observation is that Rupp just had his lunch handed to him pretty hard by a 26:55/59:38/2:06:27 guy.

    After watching him get rocked that way, it is very hard to see Rupp going under 2:07:00 in the fitness he showed today.
  • sundown
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 12:03pm CDT
    re: saladbration
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    Kirui was just cruising, no doubt. He looked just incredibly easy the whole way and not even working that hard in the break. But he can run significantly faster than 2:06, maybe 2:03-2:04. Wait for it. Rupp can run under 2:07 in Europe if you figure that he was 21 seconds back from this guy but also beat some excellent runners and beat a lot more in the Olympic marathon.
  • doot doot
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 12:11pm CDT
    re: saladbration
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    saladbration wrote:

    Rupp just ran a 2:09:58 in a Boston, on a day that seemed to run slow in terms of conditions.

    He was 21 seconds behind the 2:09:37 of Geoffrey Kirui, who has a recent 2:06:27 on a pancake course (Amsterdam). Kirui also has a 59:38 half and a 26:55 10,000.

    (Rupp also beat his 27:38/1:01:11 training partner, marathon debutant Suguru Osako, by 30 seconds.)

    Of course, that doesn't mean Rupp is just 21 seconds off of 2:06:27 ability. Kirui clearly didn't remotely need to go to the well for this win. He was able to put 20 seconds on Rupp at will, over the course of just a few miles. Kirui ran for the win, doing what he had to and not much more, and would of course have more of a gap than that in a flat-out time trial.

    In short, my observation is that Rupp just had his lunch handed to him pretty hard by a 26:55/59:38/2:06:27 guy.

    After watching him get rocked that way, it is very hard to see Rupp going under 2:07:00 in the fitness he showed today.

    Your observation looks reasonable as qualified by "today's fitness." Rupp is a tough competitor. However you feel about him personally I think it's foolish to discount his marathon showings so far. Tough, hot marathons.

    I think he'll be a 2:06 guy someday.

    (ib anyone speaking optimistically about Rupp is a NOP fanboi)

    What are Rupp's plans for World Champs? The 10K is Day 1. Marathon is Day 3. Looks like no double.
  • themanontherun
    registered
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 12:44pm CDT
    re: saladbration
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    I'm honestly not too interested in what his lifetime PR will end up being. Will he medal at the Olympics again? Can he win a WMM? Will he at least consistently get on the podium in those races? Those are (in respective order of priority) the things that matter most, IMO.
  • behone avab
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 12:50pm CDT
    re: themanontherun
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    To what degree did PF affect the training that influenced GR's finish time at Boston17? That may be a factor to consider.
  • Dennis T Reynolds
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 1:42pm CDT
    re: saladbration
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    saladbration wrote:

    Rupp just ran a 2:09:58 in a Boston, on a day that seemed to run slow in terms of conditions.

    He was 21 seconds behind the 2:09:37 of Geoffrey Kirui, who has a recent 2:06:27 on a pancake course (Amsterdam). Kirui also has a 59:38 half and a 26:55 10,000.

    (Rupp also beat his 27:38/1:01:11 training partner, marathon debutant Suguru Osako, by 30 seconds.)

    Of course, that doesn't mean Rupp is just 21 seconds off of 2:06:27 ability. Kirui clearly didn't remotely need to go to the well for this win. He was able to put 20 seconds on Rupp at will, over the course of just a few miles. Kirui ran for the win, doing what he had to and not much more, and would of course have more of a gap than that in a flat-out time trial.

    In short, my observation is that Rupp just had his lunch handed to him pretty hard by a 26:55/59:38/2:06:27 guy.

    After watching him get rocked that way, it is very hard to see Rupp going under 2:07:00 in the fitness he showed today.

    You make the assumption Kirui has not improved in ability since his 2:06:27. Why?
  • middle aged hobby jogger
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 1:45pm CDT
    re: saladbration
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    I'm sure the heat differentially affects the 110#'er vs Rupp
  • Old Retired Runner
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 2:15pm CDT
    re: Dennis T Reynolds
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    No mention of the other runners behind Kirui and Rupp either with sub 2:06:30 and 2:05 bests either.
  • couch coach
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 2:30pm CDT
    re: saladbration
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    You're determining Rupp's ability against one other runner in one race. One data point does not make a line. What if Kirui (who is young and probably has not hit his ceiling yet) ran 2:01 tomorrow? Then would Galen be a 2:01:20 guy? No. Add in all of the other factors (like the PF he has had for months), and you see that you can't possibly determine Rupp's ability off of this race.

    In only three outings in the marathon Rupp has won the Olympic trials, gotten an Olympic medal, and taken second at Boston. Excited to see what's in store for the future.
  • Actual facts
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 2:45pm CDT
    re: themanontherun
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    themanontherun wrote:

    I'm honestly not too interested in what his lifetime PR will end up being. Will he medal at the Olympics again? Can he win a WMM? Will he at least consistently get on the podium in those races? Those are (in respective order of priority) the things that matter most, IMO.

    And yet there is a long thread discussing Hall's and KK's lifetime PRs and Rupp's chances of going faster.

    WMM not so interesting to me. Today's race showed that so-so fields do happen, and Rupp/Al are nothing if not opportunistic.
  • Saladbration
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 2:47pm CDT
    re: Dennis T Reynolds
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    Dennis T Reynolds wrote:

    saladbration wrote:

    Rupp just ran a 2:09:58 in a Boston, on a day that seemed to run slow in terms of conditions.

    He was 21 seconds behind the 2:09:37 of Geoffrey Kirui, who has a recent 2:06:27 on a pancake course (Amsterdam). Kirui also has a 59:38 half and a 26:55 10,000.

    (Rupp also beat his 27:38/1:01:11 training partner, marathon debutant Suguru Osako, by 30 seconds.)

    Of course, that doesn't mean Rupp is just 21 seconds off of 2:06:27 ability. Kirui clearly didn't remotely need to go to the well for this win. He was able to put 20 seconds on Rupp at will, over the course of just a few miles. Kirui ran for the win, doing what he had to and not much more, and would of course have more of a gap than that in a flat-out time trial.

    In short, my observation is that Rupp just had his lunch handed to him pretty hard by a 26:55/59:38/2:06:27 guy.

    After watching him get rocked that way, it is very hard to see Rupp going under 2:07:00 in the fitness he showed today.

    You make the assumption Kirui has not improved in ability since his 2:06:27. Why?



    Um, because it was six months ago?


    Only so much improvement possible in that timeframe.
  • translation, please
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 2:48pm CDT
    re: middle aged hobby jogger
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    middle aged hobby jogger wrote:

    I'm sure the heat differentially affects the 110#'er vs Rupp

    What does that even mean?
  • Saladbration
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 2:52pm CDT
    re: couch coach
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    couch coach wrote:

    You're determining Rupp's ability against one other runner in one race. One data point does not make a line. What if Kirui (who is young and probably has not hit his ceiling yet) ran 2:01 tomorrow? Then would Galen be a 2:01:20 guy? No. Add in all of the other factors (like the PF he has had for months), and you see that you can't possibly determine Rupp's ability off of this race.

    In only three outings in the marathon Rupp has won the Olympic trials, gotten an Olympic medal, and taken second at Boston. Excited to see what's in store for the future.

    I readily acknowledge(d) this is just going on one race, but the race and the runners' histories present a set of data, synthesized as information. Not a "single data point."

    Whatever Kirui's ability is today, my estimate is that Rupp is within 2:00 but no closer than 1:00 off.
  • behone avab
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 3:02pm CDT
    re: translation, please
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    It means people with less surface area genetically do better with body heat management and 110 pound runners will almost always have less surface area than runners weighing 135 pounds so that during a marathon contested with ambient air temperature at or above 70 degrees the smaller runner will not be affected by the assumed adverse conditions as much as the larger runner. Or something like that.

    But as GR has never started a marathon with the temperature under 60 degrees yet has produced podium finishing positions "middle aged hobby jogger" may not have a valid argument
  • Network Engie
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 4:39pm CDT
    re: Actual facts
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    Actual facts wrote:

    themanontherun wrote:

    I'm honestly not too interested in what his lifetime PR will end up being. Will he medal at the Olympics again? Can he win a WMM? Will he at least consistently get on the podium in those races? Those are (in respective order of priority) the things that matter most, IMO.

    And yet there is a long thread discussing Hall's and KK's lifetime PRs and Rupp's chances of going faster.

    WMM not so interesting to me. Today's race showed that so-so fields do happen, and Rupp/Al are nothing if not opportunistic.


    The race had 5 sub-2:05 guys including E. Mutai who ran 2:03 in Berlin. Looking at PRs Rupp was #14 going into this race so how is that being opportunistic? It's not an exceptionally deep field but calling it so-so is pretty ignorant.
  • Actual facts
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 5:37pm CDT
    re: Network Engie
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    Network Engie wrote:
    Actual facts wrote:
    WMM not so interesting to me. Today's race showed that so-so fields do happen, and Rupp/Al are nothing if not opportunistic.

    The race had 5 sub-2:05 guys including E. Mutai who ran 2:03 in Berlin. Looking at PRs Rupp was #14 going into this race so how is that being opportunistic? It's not an exceptionally deep field but calling it so-so is pretty ignorant.


    No, your own statement is ignorant. Do you even follow the sport?

    "5 sub-2:05 guys" you say? Let's look at that. With one exception, these are runners formerly with 2:04 ability.

    - Emmanuel Mutai ran a 2:03 in 2014, three years ago. His season bests in 2015 and 2016 were 2:07 and 2:10 so your blather about Rupp beating a "2:03 guy" is a bit...ignorant.
    - Kitwara's 2:04 was also in 2014.
    - Tsegays's 2:04 was from 2012 and he hasn't broken 2:07 since 2014.
    Last year's best? 2:08:48.
    - When was Sefir's 2:04? You guessed it, 2012. Another has-been. Hasn't broken 2:08 once since then.
    - Berhanu was the only one to even PR in 2016, let alone run "sub-2:05" in 2015 or 2016.

    So don't call this cast "5 sub-2:05 guys." It makes you look, um, ignorant. It was a weak field, period.

    There is only race under 2:07 in the past three seasons between the five of them so get that disingenuous talk out of here.

    Racing a big name or three who are obviously on the downslide seems like the very definition of opportunistic.
  • Fat = Flavor
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 5:51pm CDT
    re: Actual facts
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    Rupp was in 2;05-high shape in Rio and 2:06-high today (due to his injury). These are Berlin times.
  • not even close
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 6:31pm CDT
    re: Fat = Flavor
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    Fat = Flavor wrote:
    Rupp was in 2;05-high shape in Rio and 2:06-high today (due to his injury). These are Berlin times.

    You are hysterical.

    If he was in 2:06-high shape today, why did he just get toyed with and whupped by a 2:06 guy?

    2:07 high today at best.
  • History of it...
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 6:47pm CDT
    re: doot doot
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    doot doot wrote:

    saladbration wrote:

    Rupp just ran a 2:09:58 in a Boston, on a day that seemed to run slow in terms of conditions.

    He was 21 seconds behind the 2:09:37 of Geoffrey Kirui, who has a recent 2:06:27 on a pancake course (Amsterdam). Kirui also has a 59:38 half and a 26:55 10,000.

    (Rupp also beat his 27:38/1:01:11 training partner, marathon debutant Suguru Osako, by 30 seconds.)

    Of course, that doesn't mean Rupp is just 21 seconds off of 2:06:27 ability. Kirui clearly didn't remotely need to go to the well for this win. He was able to put 20 seconds on Rupp at will, over the course of just a few miles. Kirui ran for the win, doing what he had to and not much more, and would of course have more of a gap than that in a flat-out time trial.

    In short, my observation is that Rupp just had his lunch handed to him pretty hard by a 26:55/59:38/2:06:27 guy.

    After watching him get rocked that way, it is very hard to see Rupp going under 2:07:00 in the fitness he showed today.

    Your observation looks reasonable as qualified by "today's fitness." Rupp is a tough competitor. However you feel about him personally I think it's foolish to discount his marathon showings so far. Tough, hot marathons.

    I think he'll be a 2:06 guy someday.

    (ib anyone speaking optimistically about Rupp is a NOP fanboi)

    What are Rupp's plans for World Champs? The 10K is Day 1. Marathon is Day 3. Looks like no double.


    Rupp seams to have a history of pecking away and eventually having a good breakthrough...

    Hopefully he'll get stronger in the last 6-7 as he'll need it to get there.
  • even further off
    3 years ago 04/17/2017 6:53pm CDT
    re: not even close
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    not even close wrote:

    Fat = Flavor wrote:
    Rupp was in 2;05-high shape in Rio and 2:06-high today (due to his injury). These are Berlin times.

    You are hysterical.

    If he was in 2:06-high shape today, why did he just get toyed with and whupped by a 2:06 guy?

    2:07 high today at best.


    Calling Kirui, a 24 year-old Kenyan whose coach said he had been running 80 mile weeks before his previous best marathon performance, a 2:06 guy is laughable. Rupp was certainly in better shape than high 2:07 today.