I predict Hasay to be third overall and the top American. Besides her debut, Linden hasn't shown anything so far she can win Boston this year as compared to other years and the field is slightly better this year. She claimed that she wants to be aggressive thus year but again that doesn't mean anything if the other competitors are able to hang with her.
Too bad Flanagan is out, it will be a cracking duel between the three Americans.
I'd love to see Hasay rip one off, but I'll go with experience and take Desi. Also, shall I mention Zersanay? Strong, no kick, bombed at marathons many times.
Queens Queens wrote:
She claimed that she wants to be aggressive thus year but again that doesn't mean anything if the other competitors are able to hang with her.
Too bad Flanagan is out, it will be a cracking duel between the three Americans.
I agree with you. It seems weird to me that since Linden said she wants to win Boston this year, that so many people have seemingly bought that it's possible.
It's AMAZING that Linden came so close in 2011, but the stats reveal she's a 2:24-5 marathoner (4 times she's run between 2:23:54 and 2:26:20 - her 2:22:54 was majorly wind aided) and that's not generally what wins a major in this day and age.
Now please don't misunderstand me, I'm not predicting a win for Hasay either.
Rojo
PS. Linden's win talk kind of reminds me when I was coaching at Cornell and there was alike a 4;07 guy who desperately wanted to break 4:00. He was mad that I wouldn't tell him I thought he could do it. I said, "Look I want it to be true, but that doesnt' make it true." I'll be the first one to give Linden a month long black page if she does it .
Vote in our poll
https://twitter.com/letsrundotcom/status/852543412263936000
Also the full women's preview is now out as well:
debut marathons are rarely PBs, advantage Linden
middle aged hobby jogger wrote:
debut marathons are rarely PBs, advantage Linden
They are literally always PBs, 100% of the time.
Hasay says she's got 5:20 pace down because her 20 mile tempos have gone well. I'd give her the advantage in a 20 mile race.
Advantage Linden at 26.2
rojo wrote:
......PS. Linden's win talk kind of reminds me when I was coaching at Cornell and there was alike a 4;07 guy who desperately wanted to break 4:00. He was mad that I wouldn't tell him I thought he could do it. I said, "Look I want it to be true, but that doesnt' make it true." I'll be the first one to give Linden a month long black page if she does it .
So how did this guy do? Stagnant at 4:07, slight improvement, or sub 4?
rojo wrote:
If you want to jump on the Hasay hype bangwagon, hop on board as I'm leading the charge.
Freudian slip of the day.
Editor's note: Rojo's post misspelled bandwagon as bangwagon. After picking ourselves off the floor from laughing so hard at this post, we've corrected it."
As we get ready for Monday's Boston Marathon, Jonathan Gault has written a article previewing the American women's chances in Boston that you can find here:http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/04/2017-boston-marathon-u-s-womens-preview-can-desi-linden-end-u-s-major-drought-will-jordan-hasay-fare-debut/Normally, at LetsRun.com when we write a race preview, we put it up as "by LetsRun.com" as for the most part we generally agree on the analysis that goes into it. But I put that article up under his name as I simply don't agree that Desi Linden will finish ahead of Jordan Hasay.When Jon finished his article, he sent me a text that said it was ready to be edited and added "I didn't make predictions but if you want to make one for the Americans, I would say Linden gets third and Hasay 7th."I saw that and was like, "Wait. What? You think Linden will finish ahead of Hasay?" Jon replied that that he most definitely did and I said, "Well I most certainly don't."I actually fully expect the opposite - for Hasay to be the top American woman. Let me tell you why.Based on her success on the roads at 10 miles and 13.1, it seems obvious to me that Hasay is made for the marathon.In some ways, she reminds me of a poor woman's version of Paula Radcliffe. Both were teen prodigies (Radcliffe on the global stage - world jr xc champ, Hasay on the US stage) who didn't quite live up to the hype on the track but that's mainly because they didn't know at the time that the track way way too short of an event for them. A marathon is more than 4 times farther than a 10k.Radcliffe was a very good track runner (with no kick) who was amazing once she moved up to the marathoner. Hasay is an ok track runner (with no kick) who will be very good at the marathon.As Jon points out, Hasay's half marathon pb of 67:55 equates to 2:22 high in the marathon. She ran that half just 12 days ago. 13 days before Hasay's race, Linden ran 71:03 for the 13.1 distance. Yes, I'm aware that running a half-marathon 5 weeks out from a marathon is different than doing it 3 weeks out, but come on - the two races were run less than two weeks apart. You've got to be in at least 2:22 shape to dream of winning Boston so Linden running 71 flat 5 weeks out isn't a great sign even if you are in a huge training block.Contrast that to Hasay, who has indicated in interviews that 71 flat pace is easy for her. She's been running something close to that pace for 20 miles in practice.“I’m excited [about the full marathon]," Hasay told us after Houston. "I think I’ve got the 5:20, 5:30 pace (2:20, 2:24 marathon) down even better than [the 5:10s for the half marathon]. To be honest I was a little more scared of the half because the longer 20-mile tempos have gone so well. I’m a little bit more used to that rhythm actually."That quote right there also alleviates any fears I have about the fact that a marathon is twice as far as a half-marathon. The limited number of data points that we have all indicate that Hasay gets better the longer she runs.Jon also seems to think that Hasay's age and inexperience is a negative.
JG wrote:
As bright as Hasay's future appears, though, the marathon is a tough beast to master. .... A top-five finish would be terrific, but she's 25 years old and it's her debut; if she doesn't run well, it's not the end of the world.
I don't agree with that all. In my mind, it's a total myth that it takes time to get good at the marathon and that it's better to be older to run it.
The fact of the matter is if you are made for the marathon, it's not a tough beast to master. Paula Radcliffe ran 2:18 in her first try. Sammy Wanjiru decided to try the marathon for the first time at age 21 - he ran 3 at that age and did the following (won Fukuoka 2:06:39, 2nd in London 2:05:24 and won the Olympics 2:06:32)
So much for age and experience.
How old and how many marathons had Alberto Salazar ran when he won New York in 1981?
He was 22 and had never run one before.
So in my mind, the fact that Hasay is 25 is a good thing. She's in her physical prime. The injuries haven't started to pile up (Look at Rupp's injury - I wisih he had moved to the marathon earlier).
Let's don't over complicate this. Hasay and Linden have nearly identical 10,000 pbs 31:37 for Linden , 31:39 for Hasay) but Hasay is 8 years younger and just ran more than 2 minutes faster than Linden did at 13.1 in a recent prep race. Based on that, who do you think will finish first?
The answer is Hasay but it's just hard for some to say that as Linden is such a good blue-collar success story.
What do you think? If you want to jump on the Hasay hype bandwagon, hop on board as I'm leading the charge.
-Robert
Andrew Baines Bernard wrote:
So how did this guy do? Stagnant at 4:07, slight improvement, or sub 4?
He was actually a bit like Hasay. No kick. Better the longer he went. He ran 347 and 1409. Ended up running the 10,000 as a 5th year at Ohio State.
I'm not going to give a lengthy response -- if you read the preview, you can probably follow my logic -- but I'll explain briefly why I'm picking Linden over Hasay.
First, there's a lot less risk with Linden. You know what you're getting from her -- a smart race. I don't expect her to win, but I don't think she'll make any tactical errors either. This is Hasay's first marathon, and I think there's a much greater chance of something going wrong.
Look at some of the notable U.S.-based women who have made marathon debuts the last few years. Molly Huddle ran well in NYC last year, but there have been few women in history more prepared for a marathon debut than Huddle and she still only ran 2:28. Sally Kipyego and Betsy Saina both DNF'd their first marathons, and both were much better runners than Hasay. Kim Conley ran 2:41 in NYC. Obviously there are a bunch of women around the world who have run well in their debuts, but if one of Linden or Hasay blows up on Monday, it's going to be Hasay.
I also think Rojo doesn't appreciate how good Desi Linden is. She was 2nd in Boston in 2011 and 4th in 2015. She was 7th at the Olympics (6th if you remove Sumgong). He said "stats reveal she's a 2:24-2:25 marathoner." Well only five women in US history have ever broken 2:26.
Hasay ran amazingly well in Houston and Prague, but I think we need to give Linden credit. I don't think Hasay can suddenly hop in after a few months of training for the roads and surpass a level that it has taken Linden years to reach (even if Hasay is the more talented runner). A year ago, the thought of Hasay beating Linden in a marathon was ludicrous. I need to see more than a few half marathons to change my mind.
I think Hasay will be perfect for the marathon and wish her well on Monday but to pick her over Linden in her debut is all kinds of crazy. Desi is one of the best US marathoners of all time and she's in her prime. Last summer Hasay didn't qualify for the Olympics. Don't you think Salazar would have put her in the marathon then if she could have taken Desi's spot?
Desi ahead of Jordan, not close
She was coming off that plantar fasciitis injury that ruined her 2015 to be fair.
3hr-marathoner wrote:
I think Hasay will be perfect for the marathon and wish her well on Monday but to pick her over Linden in her debut is all kinds of crazy. Desi is one of the best US marathoners of all time and she's in her prime. Last summer Hasay didn't qualify for the Olympics. Don't you think Salazar would have put her in the marathon then if she could have taken Desi's spot?
I understand what you are saying about experience, but that to me is a double edged sword. It has been discussed on other threads about how many "fast" marathons a person has in them. How long can they stay at their prime, when they peak, etc. When were Desi's PB's set for the half and full marathon? Recently, or in 2011? Her recent half was 1:11:05, and she set her PB on that specific course back in 2012.
I think the better starting position is what time do you think Desi can run Boston in this year? Last year at the Olympics she ran a fantastic 2:26:08... but do you really think she's going to come close to her 2:22:38 from 6 years ago when she was setting all her PB's? I just don't see it. Looking at recent race results, Hasay certainly appears to be in better shape to run a time closer to Desi's marathon PB than Desi is at.
I should be clear, I am actually a Desi fan and I will be routing for her - but I think Hasay is clearly currently faster than Desi, that she is certainly significantly faster over the half marathon than Desi has ever been, and that she has the ability to beat Desi by a significant margin. Will she? Ugh, yeah, my gut is saying she will.
Jonathan Gault wrote:
I'm not going to give a lengthy response -- if you read the preview, you can probably follow my logic -- but I'll explain briefly why I'm picking Linden over Hasay.
First, there's a lot less risk with Linden. You know what you're getting from her -- a smart race. I don't expect her to win, but I don't think she'll make any tactical errors either. This is Hasay's first marathon, and I think there's a much greater chance of something going wrong.
Look at some of the notable U.S.-based women who have made marathon debuts the last few years. Molly Huddle ran well in NYC last year, but there have been few women in history more prepared for a marathon debut than Huddle and she still only ran 2:28. Sally Kipyego and Betsy Saina both DNF'd their first marathons, and both were much better runners than Hasay. Kim Conley ran 2:41 in NYC. Obviously there are a bunch of women around the world who have run well in their debuts, but if one of Linden or Hasay blows up on Monday, it's going to be Hasay.
I also think Rojo doesn't appreciate how good Desi Linden is. She was 2nd in Boston in 2011 and 4th in 2015. She was 7th at the Olympics (6th if you remove Sumgong). He said "stats reveal she's a 2:24-2:25 marathoner." Well only five women in US history have ever broken 2:26.
Hasay ran amazingly well in Houston and Prague, but I think we need to give Linden credit. I don't think Hasay can suddenly hop in after a few months of training for the roads and surpass a level that it has taken Linden years to reach (even if Hasay is the more talented runner). A year ago, the thought of Hasay beating Linden in a marathon was ludicrous. I need to see more than a few half marathons to change my mind.
Sure, Hasay can blow up and DNF. That's a possibility. But if they run side by side - going out at the same pace - I think Hasay finishes first.
I'm glad Robert started this debate.
Jonathan Gault wrote:
A year ago, the thought of Hasay beating Linden in a marathon was ludicrous.
I couldn't agree with this more. I think Jordan Hasay was the most hyped runner in America who wasn't that good. Sure she had made one Worlds team on the track but barely and I didn't see her having much of a future on the track.
I didn't see people's fascination with her.
Now I'm fully on board with the hype train. When I spoke to Jordan in Houston, the way she talked about the marathon training being easy was just like when I saw Paula Radcliffe in Ireland before her marathon debut. Hasay is totally a poor woman's version of Paula as she isn't as good on the track but some people are made for the marathon. I think Jordan Hasay falls into that group.
So it wouldn't surprise me if she beat Desi on Monday. When Jordan's Boston debut was announced, I thought, "Who cares?" Now I definitely care.
Desi is like Meb for me. I always underestimate her and she always outperforms. She's a total warrior and knows how to run Boston.
The huge negative for me with Jordan besides it being her debut is I'm not sure how she'll handle the Boston hills. I'm not sure her body type will hold up. I'd much better like her chances vs Desi on a flat course.
Back to Desi. She's totally made for the marathon as well. One reason I always discount her is her engine isn't that big. She's never broken 70 in the half. Yet she consistently goes out and runs well in the marathon.
Rojo wrote:
Linden ran 71:03 for the 13.1 distance. Yes, I'm aware that running a half-marathon 5 weeks out from a marathon is different than doing it 3 weeks out, but come on - the two races were run less than two weeks apart. You've got to be in at least 2:22 shape to dream of winning Boston so Linden running 71 flat 5 weeks out isn't a great sign even if you are in a huge training block.
Totally makes sense until you realize this year was Desi's best NYC half ever.
Desi has a history of running essentially her NYC time for the full race in Boston.
2014 71:37 NYC, 2:23.54 Boston
2015 72:36 NYC, 2:25.39 Boston
71:03 for Desi means she's in really good shape. Remember she's never busted 70 flat for the half.
When Robert first texted us yesterday to ask what we thought, here was the start of Steve's response, "Desi over Hasay for sure, no question."
It's definitely not for sure. Odds are Desi finishes ahead of Jordan because Desi is a proven consistent marathoner, but I think the odds are higher that Jordan wins the race than Desi. Jordan's upside is bigger than Desi because she's shown she's got a bigger half marathon engine.
Maybe we should do some sort of prediction contest. If anyone has a good prediction contest idea for a marathon and how to score it, post here or email me
wejo@letsrun.comwejo wrote:
Totally makes sense until you realize this year was Desi's best NYC half ever.
Desi has a history of running essentially her NYC time for the full race in Boston.
2014 71:37 NYC, 2:23.54 Boston
2015 72:36 NYC, 2:25.39 Boston
71:03 for Desi means she's in really good shape. Remember she's never busted 70 flat for the half.
I should have said this was Desi's fastest NYC half a year she was running Boston. In 2012 she ran 70:44 in NYC but wans't running Boston that year. The NYC course hasn't always been the same. Not sure when it changed.
Here is Jordan talking about her half in Houston and marathon pace being easy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPe2FXYsJGI&t=1sI think they'll finish together holding hands raised high as they tie for 1st place overall at Boston.
