Tried a 5K ~5 weeks ago and went 34:20. I drank too much the night before and think my 5K potential at the time was a little bit better than 34:20, but probably not better than 30 minutes given the shape I was in.
About 4 weeks ago my friends challenged me to break 19:30 within a year (college PR from 7 years ago: 16:47). I was 212.4 pounds at the time of the challenge (5'7") and coming off that 34:20 5K. I have also been pretty sedentary in general for over 5 years, except for a few stints of trying to get back in shape--still, I have steadily been gaining weight and getting less and less fit the older I get.
Now I have trained consistently for approximately 4 weeks (30 days to be exact). I have had a couple slip ups missing a couple weekends' worth of running due to binge drinking, but overall I have run 25/30 days and have been doing some minor core work. Most importantly, I have been cooking all my own meals and gone away from ordering food.
I began my training by doing a minimum of 20 minutes of running a day for two weeks. Then I bumped up to 25 minutes a day for 2 weeks and plan to bump to 30 minutes a day this Sunday. So far over 30 days I have lost 10.8 pounds (as of weighing in today). I also recently did a run of 3.2 miles in 28:47 so my fitness has seemed to improve quite a bit over one month.
Anyway, I am wondering what my chances of breaking 19:30 by next February are if I stay healthy and keep training. Thoughts? Training advice?