Rupps for Gold????

Other options wrote:

2:11, no wrote:

With a 2:11 PR--Rupp was beaten up at the end of that race--Rupp will be lucky to finish top 10. 15th to 20th is more likely.

Really?? That's laughable. Hopefully you're joking. Pretty much everyone would agree if he time trialed London, Berlin, or Chicago he would run around 2:05. His PR came from the trials, his first and only marathon, which he won by a fair amount, in the heat of LA. He pretty much looked like he jogged and did all he needed to in order to win. 15th-20th? Maybe if he's sick or injured... Otherwise it's top 5 for sure.

Oh, oh, hold your horses folks! If you really think Rupp will medal in Rio then what you are saying without mentioning names is that Meb is going to win the race. I guarantee that Meb will be the top American in Rio, and obviously top ten overall. As for Rupp, chances of a DNF is not out of the question.

Many people seem to believe that since Rupp beat Meb by more than a minute in the trial that is an indication that he was/is way better than Meb. The fact of the matter is that Meb ran that race mainly to qualify not for the win. If the win comes, he would have been fine with it, but if not, then just make the team. There was no need to push Rupp all the way when he already knew he had second place sealed. Now in Rio, Meb agenda will be different. He will race smartly like he always does and may surprise everyone including himself with a medal. So Ruppians, don't celebrate as yet coz yo men might walk that 26 miles to the chagrin of all yo, his fans.

2.11 NOP wrote:

Spaghetimonster wrote:

2004 Olympic marathon was won in 2:10:55...

It is 2016, something you don't seem to be aware of.

And then again even in 2016 a killer course in high heat is going to decimate people.... Over, and over, and over again....

People are constantly forgetting that it will be winter in Brazil during the games .

Regardless of all the hate, at least Rupp is going to spike the number of viewers watching the event this summer.

Rupp run forward and backward. Rupp tell funny joke. Rupp laugh at own funny joke. Rupp ignore fans. Rupp jog to Orympic gord medo.

FinnishMedal-- wrote:

Rupps is rilly good. I think he is my favorite. He runs very good and has a great sense of humor, that will help him at the end of races when it hurts, cos he can just tell him self a joke and laugh. In conclusion, Rupps is for Gold fer sure.

If he can do that and Kipchoge (the guy who almost broke the world record) does the same workout in just outside 5 ish pace. Doesn't that mean Galen rupp is in 2 hour 1 minute shape

So Meb ran a tactical trials while Rupp was going all out? There is not a chance in hell Meb will medal. He won in Boston because the other guys underestimated him and didn´t start chasing him until it was too late (Meb´s race before that was a disaster, so clearly the others thought he was done).

you are forgetting that the average temperature range for a Rio August is from 65.4 (low) to 77.9 (high). It isn't exactly going to be bone chillingly cold.

http://fei.org/system/files/RIO%20Weather%20forecast_0.pdf

For reference during the 2012 games, the temperatures ranged from 66 to 86.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGLL/2012/7/27/WeeklyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

A little research goes a long way

Top 10 95%

Top 5 80%

Bronze+ 50%

Silver+ 15%

Gold 5%

Most of the Africans will either DNF or get a medal. They don't run to place well. It is all or nothing, win or drop out and go home. It's a championship mentality. So you can almost be guaranteed that a few contenders will implode. Look at recent world champs and Olympics.

Rupp will run smart and tactically. He will not push the ragged edge, like the Africans. He will run to medal, but not for gold. That will allow him to place quite well.

I would be willing to put a little money on Rupp getting a bronze if you gave me 2:1 or better odds.

KAV wrote:

2.11 NOP wrote:

It is 2016, something you don't seem to be aware of.

And then again even in 2016 a killer course in high heat is going to decimate people.... Over, and over, and over again....

High heat? July is winter in Rio. It will be 60s-70s. Since when is that "high" heat?

Patience and planning wrote:

Top 10 95%

Top 5 80%

Bronze+ 50%

Silver+ 15%

Gold 5%

Most of the Africans will either DNF or get a medal....

I would be willing to put a little money on Rupp getting a bronze if you gave me 2:1 or better odds.

What? If most of the Africans get a medal then how can Rupp have a 50% chance at a medal? Is Rupp 50% African?

I seriously doubt that Rupp will contend for gold.

Why? Three words: Kip Cho Ge

Pretty much everyone would agree if he time trialed London, Berlin, or Chicago he would run around 2:05.

So if a 2.05 marathon is such easy for Rupp, why Mo (who is, and everyone must agree, a way better 5k/10k/HM runner that Galen) crashed a 2.08 in the so-called time trial London course?

I think it's going to come down to race strategy. If no one tries to breakaway, if it winds up being a slow, strategic race, and goes down to a fight over the last 5K or so, I think Galen will have a shot at a medal and possibly gold, because that plays to his strength.

But I think he'll have less of a chance if the big break happens earlier, at say the halfway mark, or if elite Africans in the field employ the kind of early surge tactics that made Wanjiru so hard to beat. If that takes place, it'll be a lot tougher for him.

But we'll see. Another possibility is he uses his "inexperience" to his advantage, by pulling an early surge of his own. He could possibly pull a Meb, if they don't chase figuring he'll drop back.

Regardless, it should be interesting. He'll have to execute his race plan flawlessly and have a great day, but if he does, he could have a shot.

Running an Olympic 10k at max effort will take something out of him. Even with a week or whatever to recovery, I think the 10k will negatively impact his performance in the marathon.

Patience and planning wrote:

Top 10 95%

Top 5 80%

Bronze+ 50%

Silver+ 15%

Gold 5%

Most of the Africans will either DNF or get a medal. They don't run to place well. It is all or nothing, win or drop out and go home. It's a championship mentality. So you can almost be guaranteed that a few contenders will implode. Look at recent world champs and Olympics.

Rupp will run smart and tactically. He will not push the ragged edge, like the Africans. He will run to medal, but not for gold. That will allow him to place quite well.

I would be willing to put a little money on Rupp getting a bronze if you gave me 2:1 or better odds.

I really like what you said about their mentality. Looking at the 2012 Olympics, every Ethiopian dropped out, one of which was Abshero once he fell of the lead trio. And 2 Kenayans medaled and the other, Emmanuel Mutai, clearly had a bad day and sorta gave up but still finished I think around 15-20. So you are right, for them it is either win or go home.

And no offense but 15-20 in the Olympic marathon really isn't world class. That is when guys you have never heard of are finishing in 2:15+. If I had to predict, out of the 6 Kenyans and Ethiopians, 3 will blow up. You seem to be comparing this race to like London. Countries can only bring 3 athletes apiece. And it will be slow. Al Sal trains his athletes for slow races...

asdfasdf wrote:

Running an Olympic 10k at max effort will take something out of him. Even with a week or whatever to recovery, I think the 10k will negatively impact his performance in the marathon.

I guess you don't recall Alberto Salazars "Duel in the Sun". He ran an all out 10k the week before.

Hi Heat wrote:

KAV wrote:

And then again even in 2016 a killer course in high heat is going to decimate people.... Over, and over, and over again....

High heat? July is winter in Rio. It will be 60s-70s. Since when is that "high" heat?

70s is definitely not optimal weather for a marathon

Brianruns10 wrote:

I think it's going to come down to race strategy. If no one tries to breakaway, if it winds up being a slow, strategic race, and goes down to a fight over the last 5K or so...

A sit and kick marathon would be an absolute joke. It is already killing the 10k.