Here is why Mo Farah could lose in Rio:
Kamo is one Hell of a talent and at 23 years old, isn't yet at his peak.
Kamo is burning to win.
It looks like the Kenyans (finally) have figured out what the rest of us have known for a long time: Don't jog and depend on your kick to win.
The 1/2 marathon also showed the Kenyans that Mo MIGHT be vulnerable to a brutal early pace and/or erratic pace.
Farah will effectively be alone and the Kenyans will have two or three people in the 5/10k finals.
Farah is in his 30's.
Why Mo Farah could win in Rio:
Farah is not "to old." 40 or 50 years ago, low-30's was too old, but not now. At his age, it's more mental and not physical.
Farah is at least as ravenous to win as Kamo.
The Kenyans showed their best hand at the 1/2 marathon and Mo has over 4 months to prepare for a faster/erratic pace. Plenty of time and this hasn't been lost on Salazar, either.
The "brutal early pace" strategy assumes that one of the Kenyans is willing to act as pacer. Yes, it happened at the 1/2 marathon, but in that race, the pacer had some confidence that he could pace and still get the $$$ for second place. In a 5/10k, the pacer could also end up back in the pack at the end. The Kenyans have shown very little desire to act as pacers in the Olympics because a bronze medal gets you lots more than an in-the-pack placing.
Farah winning is important to Nike. Kenya acts as the "farm system" for Nike's distance corps, but is not a large market for Nike. The UK is a large Nike market, so making sure that Farah wins and gets the massive free publicity that translates to increased sales is important. Nike can spend a boatload of money on training support and at Rio for Farah (personal massuese, doctor, physiotherapist, etc, etc), write it off as a business expense and rake in the cash if he wins. They could spend several million on this and we would think it a lot of money. They would think of it as spare change they found digging around under the couch cushions.
Kamo, et al are going to have Athletics Kenya "helping" them. Given the recent past history of the AK brain trust, this is not a comforting thought for the Kenyans.
Advice for Athletics Kenya to tip the odds a bit:
Don't "help" the athletes by holding training camps with strange "coaches"and the like prior to the Olympics.
For both the 5k and 10k, assuming at least 2 Kenyans make each final:
a) Designate the best guy as the one who is supposed to win.
b) Designate someone else as the pacer.
c) (The carrot) Tell the pacer that if he does the pacing job that the designated winner wants, the pacer will get a nice chunk of change, regardless of whether the designated winner actually wins or not, and this would also be on top of whatever other incentive money there is. In addition, the pacer will automatically be pre-selected for the Worlds next year, assuming he is fit enough to meet a certain time by a certain date next year.
d) (The stick) Tell the pacer that if he doesn't do the pacing job he is supposed to do, that the Kenyan government will confiscate his passport so he can't travel outside the country to race and make money. (Harsh and evil, but it's the third world and they can do this sort of thing.)
It's going to be one two awesome races, regardless.